Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Another Poll, More Bad News for Obama

With just over 130 days until Election Day 2012, and now that Republicans have a presumptive candidate to rally behind, things are really starting to take shape for the presidential election.  And it isn't good news for President Obama.

Democratic polling institute Public Policy Polling (PPP) released their latest numbers on Ohio, and the top lines keep moving up for Romney and Kasich, while Obama finds himself trending down.

Obama's Approval Rating
From February to May, Obama enjoyed an even approval/disapproval rating at 48%.  While not stellar--any numbers under 50% are necessarily problematic--they remained steady.  Not so today.

PPP's newest numbers now have Obama underwater, with only 44% approving of his performance and 51% disapproval.  That's a -7% swing in just over a month.

Of course, PPP offered their own take on the numbers:

Leave it up to a Democrat polling outfit to toe the party line about opposition to Obama somehow being "racist."  Perhaps they would have liked to pay attention to the numbers we highlighted just last week: the youth vote.

Obama sat at a 64% approval among those age 18 to 29 last month, compared to just 30% who disapproved.  That's a whopping +34% difference for the incumbent.  Today?  Support among the youth vote has fallen to just 46% - 43%, just a +3% difference and well within the margin of error.

But that's not the only place Obama is losing traction.

  • Obama's down 10% since February among self-identified moderates.
  • Obama's lost 6% among women since May.
  • Obama sits at a dismal 57% among Independents.
Of course, if you ask Obama, maybe he'll say he's Doing Fine.

Obama Versus Romney
Since February, Obama has held a +7% lead on Romney in the Buckeye State.  Today, that's been cut to +3% (within the margin of error).  Every bit of that movement has taken place since Romney became the presumptive GOP nominee following Rick Santorum's exit.  In fact, when compared to 2008, Obama lost 7% among McCain voters--Romney's gained 4%.

Sounds like the GOP is coming home for Romney.

Oh, and he's gained 5% among women, despite Democrats best attempts to the contrary.  Granted, Democrats aren't helping themselves in that regard.

Kasich's Approval Rating
Aside from the presidential numbers, PPP also had some good news for Governor Kasich, as his approval rating improved to a net -8%, at 40% approval, 48% disapproval.  That means after sitting at an approval index in the negative teens for months, Kasich has pulled even in approval with President Obama.  And it's come on a number of fronts, and that number is 9:

  • Kasich has a net 9% gain among women, while remaining steady among men.
  • Kasich has a net 9% gain among Independents.
  • Kasich has a net 9% gain among Democrats.

Seems like everyone is getting the picture--Kasich has Ohio back on the right track.  It's been a long time coming, but after months of job creation and balancing a multi-billion dollar budget deficit, Kasich is starting to get credit for the great job he and his team are doing for the Buckeye State.

Which means Ohioans are starting to see through Obama's smoke and mirror campaign to take credit for Ohio's economic recovery.

Then again, that pretty much explains all these polling numbers.

Cross-posted at GOHP Blog.


  1. Coming from a conservative, I don't see how that statistic, if correct, is necessarily racist (though I agree it will come off that way to other Democrats). Ever since Kennedy in 1960, 90+% of African Americans have ALWAYS voted Democrat for President - Bill Clinton had a higher percentage in '96 than Obama did in '08. Females generally vote Democrat as well (I don't know the exact percentages, but I heard it wasn't that much more than usual); the white male really voted Obama in.

  2. I think that view is correct. Frankly, maybe I am missing something but I don't see how it works this time for Obama. Except for Blacks, who are really the only "block voters", left in the USA, Obama has lost support in every significant demographic that supported him in the 2008 victory. In addition, the "wonderment" effect has largely disappeared and no longer do women faint at his campaign speeches. He is just another politician now. In contrast the interest in voting against the incumbent, for the conservatives and many moderates as well as libertarian voters is much higher than 2008. This seems to say President Romney in 2012. What am I missing?


No profanity, keep it clean.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.