tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743530438680774250.post1421454545473060582..comments2023-11-02T05:04:59.172-04:00Comments on Third Base Politics: Silver still very confident in Kasich victory.Nick (aka Bytor)http://www.blogger.com/profile/15826772166599084105noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743530438680774250.post-4878824575145587012010-10-01T14:44:04.247-04:002010-10-01T14:44:04.247-04:00So Silver calls it the second fastest race going t...So Silver calls it the second fastest race going to the Democrats, admits his model is giving Kasich better odds than is likely because it still includes the laughable SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac, and notes that Kasich's campaign is, by and large, viewed as being mediocre...<br /><br />And this, in your mind, shows evidence of confidence for Kasich?!? LOL.Modern Esquirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01840547526741502336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743530438680774250.post-49021532043046616302010-10-01T11:19:27.396-04:002010-10-01T11:19:27.396-04:00Wow Anonymous, you apparently need adult reading c...Wow Anonymous, you apparently need adult reading comprehension classes.<br /><br />In the first comment, Silver was talking about campaign's where the polling has consistently shown the candidate seven-points down.<br /><br />In the Governor's race, the polling this week from multiple polling outfits show the race as tied. In other words, Silver wasn't talking about races like the OH-Gov.<br /><br />As evidenced by your second quotation by Silver, which, again, you apparently fail to comprehend.<br /><br />Silver is admitting that his model is likely showing Kasich with stronger odds than he actually has and is admitting that his model requires him to continue to include a still fairly recent SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac polls that show leads well beyond the margin of error of more recent polling. But because they aren't sufficiently removed in time to exclude them, his model requires them to be used. Regardless, even with their inclusion, Silver's model does all him to increase Strickland's odds a by five percent in one-week.<br /><br />Silver called the second most race to move to the Democrats' favor in a week--coming just behind California and the imploding Whitman campaign.<br /><br />Silver also noted that "strategists regard [Kasich] as having run a mediocre campaign."<br /><br />In other words, Silver has expressed anything BUT confidence in Kasich's victory.<br /><br />But don't let you lack of reading comprehension stop you from parroting Keeling, who cites and article that doesn't even MENTION Ohio or Kasich as evidence of something Silver said.Modern Esquirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01840547526741502336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743530438680774250.post-48356155027734069622010-10-01T10:58:32.080-04:002010-10-01T10:58:32.080-04:00Modern Esquire is right. You left out some importa...Modern Esquire is right. You left out some important additional points from Nate Silver's string of articles: <br /><br />http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-i-why-you-cant-trust-your-gut/<br /><br />"Politicians — the ones worth their salt, anyway — are exceptionally skilled at making believers out of people, and they’ll try to make a believer out of you. Some of the time, they’ll make a strong enough argument to persuade even the most seasoned observers. But a much smaller fraction of the time will they actually turn out to be right. That’s what the data says, and it says so pretty clearly."<br /><br />Sounds like someone we know. <br /><br />By the way, there was nothing misrepresented in the article posted, as anyone who has been reading that series of articles knows.<br /><br />Here is the most recent content from Nate Silver on the Ohio Governor's race: <br /><br />"Ohio: It’s Everybody Poll Ohio! week, with four organizations, including The New York Times, having released polls there in the last few days. All the new polls show the same thing: a widening margin for the Republican senatorial candidate, Rob Portman, but a narrowing one for their gubernatorial candidate, John Kasich. We now show Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, with a 13 percent chance to save his seat, up from 8 percent last week.<br /><br />I’m sure some people will ask why Mr. Strickland is still at 13 percent and not higher, when the two polls released Tuesday show him only 1 point behind Mr. Kasich among likely voters. There are several reasons. First, while the polls show Mr. Kasich’s lead narrowing, they still show him with the lead, and even a small lead can be surprisingly meaningful with barely more than a month left in the campaign. Second, the model is not in a rush to discard some slightly older polls, like those from SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, which had given Mr. Kasich a double-digit advantage; if these firms resurvey the race and find a different result, Mr. Strickland’s chances should improve in our model. Third, it is hard for any incumbent governor to be re-elected in a state where unemployment exceeds 10 percent, and other Midwestern Democrats are faring poorly in gubernatorial contests this year.<br /><br />There’s also the odd fact that Mr. Kasich’s lead is dwindling as Mr. Portman’s is growing. On the one hand, it may be a sign that voters are beginning to scrutinize Mr. Kasich, whom strategists regard as having run a mediocre campaign. On the other hand, it’s possible that Mr. Kasich could be assisted by Mr. Portman’s coattails (although Mr. Portman’s lead appears to come more from persuading independent voters than from being able to motivate a huge turnout)."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743530438680774250.post-75880564915434236952010-10-01T09:46:32.336-04:002010-10-01T09:46:32.336-04:00Yet again, you blatanly misrepresent what Nate Sil...Yet again, you blatanly misrepresent what Nate Silver said about Ohio. <br /><br />Shameless.Modern Esquirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01840547526741502336noreply@blogger.com