Nice timing, Dennis Willard

This weekend, Dennis Willard of the Akron Beacon Journal became the latest Ohio columnist to write a piece critical of Gov. Strickland's leadership, or lack thereof.

Three and a half years into his first term, Gov. Ted Strickland has been cleaning house.

In August alone, Strickland accepted resignations from or pushed out three directors.

Willard goes on to list ten high profile resignations within the Governor's cabinet.

The promise to ''Turnaround Ohio'' that Strickland made in running for office in 2006 has gone unfulfilled.

Strickland has been ambitious in rolling out a progressive agenda, but his attempts to fix the school-funding formula, provide more benefits to the needy, even avoid raising taxes by expanded gambling through keno and now slots, have faltered initially or failed because of poor planning, communication and execution.

Some of this is the result of being new at the job of administering government after spending years as a minority member of the U.S. House.

But a contributing factor to Strickland's shortcomings is that the people he needs the most — those who speak truth to power — are not welcome.

And the ones he needs the least seem to have a way of hanging around just a little too long.

Those words, written on the 12th, were all too prophetic.

In a column that kickstarted itself by highlighting the resignation of Henry Guzman, Willard had no idea the mess the Governor's former Public Safety Director had caused.

The next day, on the 13th, the Columbus Dispatch published an expose of the Ohio Department of Public Safety and its failure to prevent 60,000 illegal aliens from obtaining drivers licenses.

Now, we won't go into the implications of such a grave situation here. We all are smart enough to understand the ramifications.

Instead, consider the disaster from a political perspective.

Can you see the "Under his watch, Governor Strickland allowed 60,000 illegal aliens..." ads already?

It's amazing. Just when I think things can't possibly get worse for Gov. Strickland, something like this happens and just blows me away.

It's time for Ohio Democrats to consider the political poison that is the Strickland Administration and their strategies for playing keep away.

Fisher must find a way to project the debate in the Senate race away from his service with the Governor.

Brunner, if she's smart, will use the power of earned media to compensate for her massive financial disadvantage and make news by attacking Fisher with his attachment to the Governor.

Cordray will cover his eyes and ears and avoid the Governor at all costs in hopes of being the last man standing for 2014.

As for Boyce, Pepper, and Garrison/Brown.....well, all they can do is hope and pray their respective opponents shoot themselves in the collective foot.

Ohio Democrats scoffed at the mess that Bob Taft and Republicans put themselves in just 3 years ago.

Well fellas, it's time to pay the piper.

UPDATE: If you're interested in reading more about the implications behind allowing 60k illegals to have their own drivers licenses, Kyle Sisk has a post up that goes into detail about what is at risk. Check it out here.

An on-the-ground perspective of the 9/12 Tea Party

While I was back home in Columbus, Union Station was good enough to walk down a few blocks and take in the sights of the enormous event taking place down by the US Capitol this weekend. Here's his report:

From an organizational standpoint, the DC Teaparty this past Saturday was an outstanding success. The march from Freedom Plaza to the Capitol was intense and provided the media with some great shots. The list of speakers included a diverse group of individuals who included a coal miner, a Nazi concentration camp survivor, and multiple members of Congress. I am not going to try to estimate the crowd size, but I will say that when I walked down at about 2pm the crowd was packed from the Capitol to at least 3rd street with lots of people walking up and down the mall on both sides.



The actual effectiveness of this protest remains to be seen. There were lots of anti-war protests in DC and around the country during the Bush years but we still have troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although these protests never brought the troops home, they did shift the power in Washington. Hopefully this will happen again.

This crowd viewed Glenn Beck and Rep. Joe Wilson as heroes. They erupted with cheers each time either of their names were mentioned. I was amazed at the number of Joe Wilson stickers/signs people were wearing/carrying. You may not agree that a joint session of Congress is the best time to call the President a liar, but he has no doubt made a name for himself and as of last night had raised well over $1 million for his campaign.

As a veteran of many political rallies, the message on the signs being carried is usually strictly controlled and the rally organizers usually have select individuals create many “homemade looking” signs with similar messages that are approved by the organizers. This was not the case here. I would approximate that 95% of the signs I saw were actually homemade and demonstrated a variety of opinions and concerns that people have right now with the direction of the country.

As I entered the crowd I was smoking my cigar and quietly following behind a couple of young left wingers who were walking in to check out the crowd. All they kept saying was “OMG OMG” and pointing to this sign or that.

I would tend to agree with them.

My jaw hit the ground when I walked over the hill of the Capitol to see all of hundreds of thousands of people, from all walks of life, coming together to show Congress their disapproval. I could overhear their dismay that anyone would consider Obama a fascist. My guess is that they couldn’t give me a definition of fascism if I asked them.

From a tech perspective, the speakers were regularly taking “polls” by getting people to text them their biggest concerns. Were they trying to get a list of phone numbers? #DC912 served as the twitter hashtag for the protest is still a trending topic. Truly it shows the success of the organizers and the grassroots effort.

The Bottom Line: Democrats should be concerned of two things: 1. the people who want to remove them from office are highly organized and motivated on a grassroots level. This is not a good sign for their longevity; and 2. the people in the crowd were not all redneck right-wingers who cling to their guns and religion. One woman I spoke with voted for Obama and considered herself a liberal as recently as last year. The crowd was filled with moderates and libertarians who think things have gone too far. A significant portion of the people I talked with had never attended a political rally of any kind; these are not long time political activists. Of course the liberals will dismiss this protest as being “mostly white” (like that matters, although it is untrue), filled with old folks and crazies. This dismissal is an asset of this movement, because liberals will continue to push their agenda through Congress, which will eventually fail, and will further motivate this base to come out and vote next November.

My Favorite line from a speaker: Hector Barreto, former Administrator for the U.S. Small Business Administration: “Most of the people in Congress have never made a payroll.”

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a President who has?

Quinnipiac Poll on Ohio Gov race coming tomorrow...

Late tomorrow morning we learn the latest numbers on the Ohio Gov race from Quinnipiac, the most accurate statewide pollster from the 2008 election.

Quick predictions...

- Kasich up by 5 on Strickland (this would be a ten point swing from July)
- Kasich name recognition up only 10 (meaning most voters are more anti-Strickland than necessarily pro-Kasich)
- Independents increase support for Kasich
- Democrat support for Strickland grows weaker, but not by much
- Strickland approval/disapproval numbers flip

I'll have a poll analysis up a little after 5:30 tomorrow, so keep an eye out.

In other news, Kasich's campaign store is up and running. Create an account for yourself, buy a shirt and some bumper stickers, and enjoy the swag.

The Short Attention Span Electorate

Earlier today, Jim Geraghty of NRO wrote a post on his blog asking whether health care will be a huge issue in the 2010 election.

And the issue may not be quite the decisive political issue we've been led to believe: Only 22 percent said they would be more likely to support a candidate who supports the Obama administration's proposals, with 12 percent saying they were much more likely to support that candidate.

Only 23 percent said they would be more likely to oppose a candidate who supported the Obama plan, with only 17 percent saying they were much more likely to oppose. A majority, 54 percent, said the candidate's position on this would make "no difference" on their opinion of the candidate.

On top of the poll numbers, history itself lends some credence to the theory that Obama's health care reform may not have much of an effect on voters' minds.

Today is September 14th, 2009.

We are a little less than 14 months away from election day.

In 1994, when HillaryCare, and admittedly many other things, were on the minds of voters as they voted in the Republican Revolution, health care reform had only been dead for a little over one month. Clearly, it was a fresh issue and one still on the mind's of voters not interested in a government health care option.

With Chmn. Baucus ready to unveil his version of the HC bill tomorrow, we can count on relatively swift movement of the bill through Congress, with passage of some sort of reform, watered down or not, before the end of the year.

That would leave at least 10 full months for our short attention span society to move on from Obamacare.

Can Republicans lash on to another issue as invigorating to the voters as the socialization of their health care? Does Obama dare to make immigration reform his next aggressive policy shift? Or, with health care reform but a memory, will strategists have to rest their hopes on a continuing flailing economy?

Issuing a Rhetorical Surrender

Take a moment to think about what the primary message has been from the White House each day for months.

Health Care Reform. Health Care Reform. Health Care Reform.

Their war to win the hearts and minds of Americans has been grueling and faced defeat after defeat in the heartland and even in the press. Obama's final offensive took place last week with his speech to the joint session of Congress.

Unfortunately for the President, it was a flop.

From George Stephanopoulos:

Our new ABC News/Washington Post poll out this morning shows that the President’s joint session speech may have stopped his summer slide, but it doesn’t appear to have been the “game-changer” Democrats were hoping for.

While not surprising to many, the speech didn't do what many Democrats surely thought it would.

How do we know? Check out the message of the day at the beginning of the first week after the speech:

Looking in the rear view mirror one year after the Wall Street collapse heard 'round the world, President Obama hopes to convince Americans the country has not only avoided disaster, but that the time has come to scale back the expensive government rescue.

In other words, Obama is saying, "I'm trying a completely new message for the first time in months because I've given up on trying to convince you that my health care reform plan is what's best for you so I'm going to stop making it my focus and hope I can get some watered down version passed relatively quietly in Congress so I can save face."

I hate when Obama thinks in run-on sentences.

A touchy topic.

Ted Strickland has found himself in the middle of a "holy war", as the Columbus Dispatch puts it.

Long story short, Fathima Rifqa Bary, a former Muslim and converted Christian, claims her Muslim father wanted to abuse or kill her. For this, she ran away to join a new Christian family in Florida. Gov. Crist of Florida and Gov. Strickland both agreed that she must be returned to her family in Ohio.

It's a complicated issue and one I'm not interested in commenting on. However, an aspect of the story did get my particular attention.

Strickland says the case is a family matter that should be handled in Ohio, and there is no reason to believe that Rifqa would be unsafe here.

The Facebook group "Saving Rifqa Bary" has more than 1,800 members, and a group supporting her father has about 500 members.

And a rambling and emotional YouTube video of Rifqa, a former New Albany High School cheerleader, has been viewed thousands of times -- along with numerous tributes and commentaries.

Before the Sept. 3 hearing, conservative activists and a Muslim man shouted insults at each other in front of the courthouse.

"They kind of made her an icon in this," said Rilvan Bary, Rifqa's 18-year-old brother, at the Bary home in Columbus. "It's sad, actually."

Some friends say I'm a bit cynical; always looking at the political implications of almost any issue.

This is one of those times.

The Bary case is one that has clearly ruffled a lot of feathers in the Christian community. Now, it's safe to say that most folks that support Fathima in her efforts to run from her family would likely not be supportive of Ted Strickland in 2010, regardless of this situation.

But, by supporting Fathima's father on this issue, Strickland has left a bad taste in the mouth of thousands of Christian activists. These are people now invigorated to do more than simply vote against Ted Strickland; they now want to do whatever they can to get rid of him - raising money, knocking on doors, making phone calls - these folks want Ohio's Governor to get the message that his actions were unconscionable.

Strickland may have awoken a sleeping giant.

Annnnnnnd I'm back...

Sorry for the brief interruption in posting.

After driving back to Virginia last night I was a weeee bit spent.

Of course, I had to pull off to the side of the road every time I thought about how open Duron Carter was on 1st down with 1:05 left.

Ugh.

And now back to our regular programming.

:sigh:

It ain't easy being a Buckeye fan.

Oomph. You're in trouble, Gov.

This morning as I was preparing to head down to campus to start tailgating, I noticed a tweet from Kevin over at OPO highlighting an article in today's Marietta Times...

Bad, eh?

Well, the article goes on to communicate something quite frightening for the Governor.

In a non-scientific poll of attendees at the Washington County fair, voters disapproved of Ted Strickland 70.8% to 29.2%.

Why is that so scary?

In 2006, Strickland won Washington County 66-33.

Don't worry Ohio Dems, it's not too late to woo Alec Baldwin.

Gimme a break.

I'm heading home to Ohio this morning to see my brand new niece, Zoe, and take in the OSU/USC game.

Posting will be light, but 3BP be back on Monday!

Go Bucks!

We all have a story.

I know I do.

8 years ago today I was working up on Capitol Hill in a congressional office.

I remember watching the second plane hit the WTC on the little tv in the small lobby of a freshman congressman's office. E-mails were going back and forth on a listserv of hill staffers.

"The EOB was hit."

"A car bomb nailed the State Department."

"The mall is on fire."

"A plane hit the Pentagon."

While only one of those actually happened, the e-mails capture the horror and chaos of that morning.

I joined a couple staffers by the window in the chief of staff's office to gaze up into the sky to see if we could see any planes buzzing DC.

Thinking back, it was so surreal. I was actually looking up to see if we were being attacked. Never in my youth did I dream that was something I would ever have to do while living in this great nation.

Upon confirmation that the Pentagon had been hit, the Congressman ordered us to evacuate. A legislative assistant in the office told us to head to his apartment a few blocks up on Capitol Hill.

We ran down the stairs from the top floor of the Cannon building, and up the street. I still remember the hordes of fellow staffers doing the same thing; leaving high heels and papers behind them as they ran.

As I turned the corner to head towards the apartment I heard a loud boom.

"They hit the Capitol," I thought to myself.

I turned back against the crowd and ran back around the corner to gaze up at what I thought was going to be a giant fireball.

Nothing. The Capitol still stood. And I actually smiled.

Thinking back, it could have been a sonic boom from a jet flying overhead, or maybe even some kind of secondary explosion from the Pentagon. I still have no idea what it was.

I started running towards the apartment again and finally got inside.

I had just run for my life. Unbelievable.

We gathered around the tv and tried to call loved ones to let them know we were ok. Obviously, cell service was disrupted, making it impossible to reach anyone.

Instead we eventually were able to use an intern's calling card to call home. That same intern made 9/11 her first, and last, day.

After watching the horror of the Pentagon ablaze and the twin towers plummeting to the ground, I finally decided it was time to head home to my apartment in Georgetown. I hopped on the metro to Foggy Bottom and exited the station.

As I walked across the bridge into Georgetown, I remember looking out and seeing the smoke billowing from the Pentagon. I'll never forget that sight.

I came home to dozens upon dozens of voicemails on my landline and cell from people, many of whom I hadn't talked to in months or even years, asking if I was ok.

I couldn't call many of them back. It was just too much.

We all have our stories from that fateful day 8 years ago. Where we were and what we were doing.

The horror and courage from those that actually lived that terrible experience must continue to serve as an example to all Americans.

We will persevere. We will never give up. We will win.

God bless America.

Like it or not, Joe Wilson was right.

This post isn't about Joe Wilson. It's about something bigger than Joe Wilson.

Whether or not health care reform, as Joe Wilson knows it via HR 3200, allows for illegal immigrants.

I'll let William Jacobsen, a law professor at Cornell University, take it from here:

[...] if the standard is the full House Bill, HR3200, then it appears that Obama was incorrect. There is nothing in HR3200 that excludes illegal aliens from the various coverage provisions (with a few limited exceptions). The Congressional Research Service agrees with this assessment. For example, with regard to health care exchanges, the CRS found:

"H.R. 3200 does not contain any restrictions on noncitzens—whether legally or illegally present, or in the United States temporarily or permanently—participating in the Exchange."

Since the Obama administration wanted a full House vote passing HR3200 prior to the August recess, Obama was okay with a bill that included illegal aliens.

Sure, Wilson was wrong to shout. But so were Democrats when they booed the President in 2005.

If nothing else, show respect for the Office of the President.

Then use the facts to show him he's wrong.


h/t: LetsTalk

For the Dems all excited about the post-debate CNN poll...

You can't seriously be excited about this:

A 27-point demographic advantage?

Seriously?

Even Gallup, not exactly the most friendly of polls to the GOP, has current Party ID at 45-40 favoring Democrats.

So calm down. Take a breath. Have a drink.

And let's wait and see how this speech really shakes out.

The Perfect Metaphor for Ted Strickland's Re-Election Campaign

Ted Strickland, coming back to romance Ohioans after nearly three years spent swindling them out of any sense of a positive economic future isn't going to work.

664,000 jobless Ohioans will make sure of that.

It's gonna get worse. Lots worse.

On Ted Strickland's new website, before his bit on education and the glaring misspelling of "tuition"....

...you'll find the following claim from the Governor:

Ohio Jobs Stimulus Bill—Bringing Ohio into the 21st century by signing one of the nation’s first state-level jobs stimulus bills, boosting investment in environmentally friendly, high-growth sectors such as biotech, advanced energy and multi-modal transportation.

If I may, let me take you back to a year and a half ago when Strickland enacted Ohio's own $1.57 billion stimulus designed to "Turnaround Ohio".

It didn't work.

Strangely enough, that hasn't stopped Strickland from wanting to take credit for this massive misallocation of Ohioans' hard-earned tax dollars.

Just how badly has it done?

Ohio's unemployment is nearly double what it was from the date the bill was enacted.

Strickland promised we would see the effect on the economy "almost immediately."

Wow, was he right.

But all that is nothing new, is it?

Here comes the really bad news.

Unfortunately, it's going to get worse. Lots worse.

And that's according to the Governor's own Council of Economic Advisors.

...the consensus forecast from the group has a less optimistic view for Ohio employment than its March forecast.

The earlier report showed Ohio employment declining by 1.7 percent in the current fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2010, before increasing by 0.5 percent in fiscal 2011. But the new report shows a 3.5 percent decline in fiscal 2010 and a 0.8 percent drop the next year.

Holy crap.

That would place Ohio's unemployment rate at nearly 15% come June of next year.

This forecast virtually assures Ohio of continued suffering at the hands of the Governor at the worst possible time for him - heading into election season.

Prepare yourselves, Ohio.

A train is a'coming.

Subbing for Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) this evening....

Maxwell, the Heckler.

At least it would have made the yawnfest more entertaining.




h/t: BCS

Tim Pawlenty is realllllllllyyyy running for President.

Lately, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has had the kind of ambitious schedule that would make Mitt Romney blush.

In the presidential politics game, it's vital to get out ahead and develop mutually beneficial relationships. Tim Pawlenty has been doing just that.

Check it out.

• In early August, Pawlenty was the only potential '12 candidate to speak at the RNC meeting in San Diego.
• On August 22nd, he appeared at the Florida GOP's annual fundraising dinner.
• Last week he was in New Jersey campaigning with GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie.
• This week he is spending a couple days with Bob McDonnell and his campaign here in Virginia.
• Next week he will be back home headlining the Ohio GOP's Leading Ohio dinner and tomorrow will be conducting a health care tele-town hall with John Kasich.

While Pawlenty clearly will continue to lag for some time behind Romney in polls about 2012, he is currently out-hustling Romney when it comes to what is most important 2-3 years out - relationships.

If Romney wants to be considered the heir apparent to the nomination, he can't continue to let Pawlenty pull momentum among the GOP elite.

4 more points.

Yesterday, Scott Rasmussen announced that Republicans have reached a new high in the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Support for both parties rose one point over the past week, giving
Republicans their highest level of support of the past several years. Support
for Democrats last week reached its lowest point during that same time
period.

For reference, Democrats reached their peak in June of last year with 48%.

On Obama Day....er, election day, Democrats were polling at 47%. Republicans at 41%.

Now, I fully acknowledge that no one can directly translate this type of poll onto their own district's congressional race. After all, each race has its own variables and characteristics that make it its own. But, the poll does provide a very real gauge on the overall mood of the voters.

And that's important.

If the GOP can reach, and heaven forbid, surpass the 48% marker, Republicans will be able to claim clear momentum as we head into midterm season. This helps all-around; with last-minute candidate recruiting, with fundraising, and with the all-important horse race that is a congressional campaign.

Once again, this reinforces the importance of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races in two months. If the GOP can pull off wins in these two clear blue states, and if the wins can be properly framed and utilized by the national Party, Republicans nationwide may very well hit, and even surpass, the magic 48 point barrier.

Ohio: Going Backwards at Ludicrous Speed

Americans for Tax Reform are out with a report highlighting what they call Cost of Government Day. They break down the total cost of government for each state based on Federal, State, and local taxes, as well regulatory costs.

So, in the middle of Ohio's job crisis, how much did Ohio improve its situation?

It didn't.

In fact, Ohio tied with three other states for the 3rd worst drop in rankings from 2008 to 2009.

Ya know, Governor Strickland, since you're clearly not up to it, it's not too late to quit while you're waaaaaay behind. We won't think less of you.

Promise.

BREAKING: Great News on the Economy for Ohio and the Nation!!!***

*** - Not really.

From CNN:

Hiring expectations for the fourth quarter are improving around the world except in one key region: the U.S. That's the finding of two quarterly employment outlook surveys released Tuesday by Manpower Inc. ( MAN).

Employers in 17 of the 35 countries and territories expect to add to their workforce next quarter, according to the Manpower Global Outlook Survey. And 20 of 34 regions reported an improvement in the job outlook, "indicating an easing in the pattern of layoffs prevalent in the past several quarters," the survey said.

A key exception to the improving trend was in the U.S. The Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey showed among U.S. employers, only 12% expect to add to their workforce in the October-December period, while 14% expect a decline and 69% see no change. Manpower says the results suggest employers expect a slight decrease in the rate of hiring when compared to third-quarter results.

How's that stimulus working out for ya, America?

h/t: Jim Geraghty