Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Great Senate Robbery of 2008

Al Franken won this ballot.


This article details some of the absolutely unbelievable inconsistencies coming from the Minnesota canvassing board when judging the ballots.

Make sure you have this
when reading the story.

An anonymous reader provided a link to a story on 538 disputing the Fox News story. It should also be noted that Fox News has corrected their original article. But, while the above ballot did in fact get awarded to Coleman, the glaring inconsistencies used by the board as illustrated in the above Fox News article are disturbing.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Monday, December 15, 2008

A message to the media...


Yes, I know. I'm being primitive. I'm relying on simple insults to communicate my message. But come on, at this point I just can't help it.

During the course of this Blago scandal we first heard from Obama that him and his staff had "no contact" with the Illinois Guv or his staff. Then he backed off from "no contact" and instead claimed that there was "no inappropriate contact" regarding the open Senate seat. And now, we find out that Obama Chief of Staff-designate Rahm Emanuel provided a list of candidates that were "acceptable" to the President-Elect. So, Obama lied twice. And now we find out he is just as much a part of the Chicago political machine as we all assumed in the primary.

Has anyone asked the question, what retribution would the President-Elect exact upon Blago had he selected someone that was not acceptable?

This is politics at its worst. Obama is utilizing political threats in order to obtain his desired outcome.

And this is acceptable? This is the new brand of politics we were promised? How much of this do we have to take?

And has the mainstream media taken him to task even once?

Of course not.

You're trying too hard.

Over the weekend the Columbus Dispatch ran a story explaining how Mary Jo Kilroy beat out the much more qualified and much less offensive to the eyes, Steve Stivers. Rather than wasting all of our time, here is a more honest version that should save you from reading the article.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

The Teflon Governor?

During Gov. Strickland's entire term, Ohio's economy has been worse off than the national economy. Per the Columbus Dispatch, this won't be changing anytime soon. In fact, Ohio's economic climate will continue to worsen at a rate worse than the national economy all the way through Strickland's re-election year in 2010.

Ohio's unmployment rate is up 24% just from last year. It's expected to rise another 16% by 2010.

And what news do we learn from a recently conducted Quinnipac poll?
"Things look reasonably well for Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland's re-election prospects in two years, less so for Republican Sen. George V. Voinovich, a new Quinnipiac Poll shows.

As the governor nears the midpoint of his first term, 45 percent of Ohioans say he deserves another four years, 34 percent say he doesn't and 20 percent don't know. When paired against an unnamed Republican candidate, Strickland leads by 20 points.

The Democratic governor's 54-percent approval rating is his worst of the year in the Connecticut university's survey, but not by much; it was 55 percent in June, 56 percent in February. His 2008 high was 61 percent in August."
It seems the memory of Republican failures are still fresh in the minds of Ohioans. How else do you explain continued failure to remedy the situation?

But will this approval rating last? Without a Bush/Taft to blame anymore, will voters still be as forgiving towards Strickland in 2010?

The solution to our problem is simple enough. Tax cuts. Ohio continues to be worst among Midwestern states when it comes to its tax burden, and rather than remedy this situation, Strickland is focusing on obtaining a bailout from Washington using our federal tax dollars to pay for Ohio budget shortfalls.

Bringing businesses back to Ohio brings jobs back to Ohio. Bringing jobs to Ohio brings tax revenue to Ohio.

Gov. Strickland, don't put a bandaid on a gaping flesh wound. It looks silly and doesn't stop the bleeding.

Fix the problem. Bring business back to Ohio.

Vote Kasich for Governor.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Quit cheering gas prices.

Happy about the consistently lowering gas prices?

Ace says it best re: the reduced cost of oil.
"[It's a] good news, bad news thing.

Mostly bad news.

It would be great news if oil's prices were falling due to increasing supply (along with some nontrivial increases in efficiency), but it's falling due to a deep worldwide recession. Less production, less industrial output, less commerce, less trade, less wealth. Cheap gas. Not really a good trade."

Telling it like it is...

Losing a good one...

Steve Stivers lost to Mary Jo Kilroy.

He'll be back. Or at least, he better be.

Friday, December 5, 2008

A brief moment of Ohio political clarity and sensibility...

The last question mark in determining the makeup of the US House of Representatives drew closer to a conclusion today as the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that 1000 provisional ballots in central Ohio were not eligible to be counted.
"The Ohio Supreme Court ruled 4 to 2 that [Secretary of State] Brunner (D) "abused her discretion by providing different counties with differing instructions on whether these ballots should be counted," the court wrote in its decision.

The court said Brunner's directive instructing the Franklin County Board of Elections to count provisional ballots that lacked signatures or had names and signatures in the wrong places were 'unreasonable.'"
Based on the presumption that the 27,000 ballots yet to be counted in Franklin County are expected to trend against the Republican, State Sen. Steve Stivers, this judgement is good news for his chances. It's still an uphill battle...but at least we're a step closer to getting this one wrapped up.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Screw it. I'm keeping my Hyundai.

Today the big three, GM, Ford and Chrysler, as requested by the Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader, submitted their business plans. Our congressional leaders requested the plans before moving forward on any type of bailout.

Rather than wasting your time by having you peruse lengthy pages of nothingness, I contacted a friend who serves as a Congressional staffer and has been focusing his energies on the issue. Fortunately, he's blunt.
This is all Kabuki Theater. Due to responsibilities to their shareholders, GM and Ford can't put anything in these reports that could prove or disprove their long-term viability. Pelosi and Reid just hatched this plan to buy themselves some time. Here are what these plans tell me:

GM = Screwed. They need $4 billion to just make it through December!
Ford = Communicating to their shareholders that they are the strongest of the three.
Cerberus = Trying to do and say as little as possible while they await a cushion that will allow them to sell off Chrysler. No plan outside of the next 6 months.
Bet that put you in a better mood, eh?


Looks like my source was right about GM. From today's Bloomberg news:

You can shut up now.

You may remember this from a few weeks ago...

If you shared that with your Obama voting friends you probably got the same reaction as I did.

"Whatever, I could find you just as many dumb McCain voters."

"So what, if they had polled McCain voters it would be the same result."

":insert your favorite deflective and defensive quote here:"

Welllll....it turns out they DID decide to poll McCain voters using the same questions and same sample size. Some highlights:
  • 35 % of McCain voters got 10 or more of 13 questions correct.
  • 18% of Obama voters got 10 or more of 13 questions correct.
  • McCain voters knew which party controls congress by a 63-27 margin.
  • Obama voters got the “congressional control” question wrong by 43-41
  • Those that got "congressional control" correct voted 56-43 for McCain.
  • Those that got "congressional control" wrong voted 65-35 for Obama.

So at the end of the day we may be losers...but at least we're not idiots.

Monday, December 1, 2008


Ya gotta love cheap buys just in time for Christmas.

Yep. The New Gold Standard: Charlie Weis and Notre Dame's Rise to Glory can be yours for just $2.95 on Amazon.


Ohhhh so THAT'S what happened...

Back on November 6th, a semi-secret meeting took place among conservative leadership in Virginia. The meeting included high-profile Republicans such as L. Brent Bozell III, president of the Media Research Center; Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council; Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform; Al Regnery, publisher of the American Spectator; longtime conservative activist Richard Viguerie and conservative pollster Kellyanne Conway.

Their goal was to determine how best to fight the incoming Obama Administration and to refocus the Conservative ship on a path to reclaim power.

One particularly interesting outcome was this:
The participants generally agreed that new national conservative political leaders will emerge from the major public-policy battles that they anticipate.

Conway said conservatives will be looking for the candidates and elected officials who fit the movement’s “job description” – meaning that they are with the movement on the core issues at stake in these battles and are in the thick of the action when those battles begin.
So we have a general idea of what was discussed. But we don't know the strategy or tactics behind it.

Well, today's Washington Post article discussing Gov. Bobby Jindal's trip to Iowa may have given us a clue:
"The anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist believes, too, that Jindal is a certainty to occupy the White House, and conservative talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh has described him as 'the next Ronald Reagan.'

'If anything, McCain's candidacy suggests that age is not always a positive -- and sometimes is a negative,' Norquist says. 'As Republicans, you have a real problem now with younger voters and immigrants. If you were going to central casting for a candidate to deal with all that, who do you have? Jindal. He is young, and he looks young. . . . He's a great communicator. And his record is that he's sharp and quick with policy.'"
So we know that attendees at this meeting were looking for someone "new". And now we have a very positive article about his first appearance in Iowa, one of the meeting attendees talking up the young Jindal as the Party's next Reagan, and other decisionmakers identifying him as the next guy that can bring a smile to every Republican face.


It's a good thing they're right.

The downward spiral continues...

For the past few months as John Kasich has been visiting local leaders across the Buckeye state, he has spoken about the downward spiral that is the Ohio economy. Well today we learned just how prophetic those words were. From today's Columbus Dispatch:
"A lagging national economy means Ohio is facing a staggering shortage of up to $7.3 billion in the next two-year state budget that begins July 1, Gov. Ted Strickland said this afternoon.

And if the federal government doesn't provide significant financial aid to Ohio soon and holiday retail sales aren't "robust," the state will have to cut an additional $640 million from the current state budget, the governor said."
And here you will find Gov. Strickland's solution for the problem that doesn't rely on a bailout from the federal government:

Yep, Governor Ted's solution is to go crying to Uncle Sam and beg for more money. This, at best, is a short term fix to the nagging problems facing Ohio today. Problems that are being completely ignored by the Governor.

Currently, Ohio's tax burden is 7th highest in the country. Seventh. Know what it was 30 years ago? 45th. And which other midwest states have it worse than Buckeyes? None. Zip. Zero.

This problem will NOT be fixed by big government bailouts. It will be fixed by lower taxes that encourage growth and stability. And it CAN be fixed by a Governor that has the courage to address our state's problems head on.

Governor Strickland clearly doesn't have it.

John Kasich has gotten it done before...and he can do it again.

Six more years of Voino?

If his recent efforts negotiating a bailout for the automobile manufacturers are a hint, it sure looks like it. His latest public action was a letter addressed to Reid and Pelosi pushing them to move forward on the Voinovich/Bond/Specter plan:
"Our legislation contains strong taxpayer protections including: (1) the submission of a detailed strategic business plan that would be independently reviewed and analyzed by the Secretary of Commerce; (2) a mechanism to replenish the dollars back into the Department of Energy section 136 program so the companies can begin the important task of retooling to meet new fuel-efficiency standards; (3) prohibitions on the payment of dividends; (4) the provision of warrants; (5) limits on executive compensation; (6) a prohibition on golden parachute payments; and (7) and the creation of an oversight board. I believe our bipartisan legislation represents an excellent template for crafting a package that can pass both Houses of Congress and be signed into law by President Bush."
While I applaud the Ohio Senator's efforts, there is some concern that this plan just raises the dike a little higher, thereby only delaying the inevitable crash. But, maybe that is just what is needed.

I asked for a little clarification from his office re: point number 2, as listed above. Their response:
"It guarantees that the money that was originally intended to be used for green things, like hybrids, fuel cells, etc., is replenished and used for its original purpose."
At the end of the day, this legislation WILL help Ohioans. But, it may damage the industry in the long run. One thing is for sure...Voinovich is working to make sure his constituents remember he's still there working for them. He'll need that in a couple years.

Three whole weeks?

"Leaving the senate is very difficult for me, but during the last three weeks I thought often of our troops." - Sec. of State-to-be Clinton

Three weeks of thinking about our troops? How thoughtful of you.

Imagine it...

The scene: Hollywood Kodak Theater - Democratic Primary Debate
Date: February 1st - just days before Super Tuesday
Moderator: Wolf Blitzer

Wolf: The Iraq War is heavy on the minds of Americans voting in this primary. Many of them want the United States out of Iraq immediately. What would be your first action as President-Elect to make sure this happens?

Obama: Well, I'd keep President Bush's Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, that's for damn sure.


DailyKos and moonbats everywhere...

Monday, November 24, 2008


Yeah, this sounds about right.

(be patient on this one...it's worth it)

Friday, November 21, 2008

It was inevitable...

Some of you may have seen the video posted on Hotair.com today of young girls crying when David Cook beat out David Archuleta to be the 'American Idol'. Well, I guess I just couldn't help myself...so here is 3BP's own special version:

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Boehner's back.

Rep. John Boehner of Ohio was re-elected Minority Leader in the US House of Representatives today. This is a good thing.

I've been a fan of Boehner's ever since my days of working on the Hill. He ran the Education & Workforce Committee like clockwork. His staffers were bright and efficient. He made the Minority feel like they were part of the process and railroaded them when need be. And on top of it, he knows how to throw one helluva party.

Not much has changed since then, except it's harder to get a ticket to his parties and...oh yeah, we're now the Minority.

Since assuming the role of Minority Leader, Boehner has done as good a job as anyone could expect with the challenges he has faced in this troubled economy and communication vacuum. An unpopular GOP President and a Presidential campaign all have distracted from his efforts to communicate his message and improve the House Republican Caucus.

Not anymore. Republicans are sorely lacking leadership. No longer will a Republican President or a Republican Presidential candidate shape the national debate on behalf of the GOP.

It's up to Boehner and McConnell now.

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

The Mitt we know and love...

Here’s Mitt Romney, presidential candidate, campaigning in Michigan last January:

Mr. Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts whose father was president of American Motors in the 1950s and ’60s, insisted that the auto industry can be revived and blamed Congress and Mr. McCain for ignoring Michigan’s problems.

“The question is, where is Washington?” Mr. Romney said, speaking to a gaggle of reporters across from a General Motors transmission plant near Ypsilanti, where 200 layoffs were announced this week. “Where does it stop? Is there a point at which someone says ‘enough’? Or are we going to allow the entire domestic automotive manufacturing industry to disappear?”


And here’s Mitt Romney in today’s New York Times:

IF General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.

Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.

h/t: The Agitator


This morning the DJ found the following in his inbox:
Please see below for an update from Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell talking about Sen. Voinovich’s efforts to help the auto industry this morning on the Senate floor:

“So let me suggest a bipartisan path forward that has not yet been offered by the majority. It’s a compromise being worked on by Senators Voinovich and Bond which repurposes funds already appropriated by this Congress to fund a $25 billion loan program for automakers to build advanced technology vehicles—coupled with new taxpayer protections and federal oversight of how the money is spent. This is a proposal which I believe has support from both sides of the aisle, and that actually has the potential to pass right now—not next year.

“There is a way forward that will help protect the jobs in the auto industry, while also protecting the taxpayers. Senators Voinovich and Bond are working with colleagues across the aisle to protect taxpayers and our long-term economic health. Should this compromise approach be approved by the Congress, it is the only proposal now being considered that has a chance of actually becoming law.”

The Senate is streaking down the wrong path at ludicrous speed. This 'solution' doesn't address the primary issue at hand: The Big 3 American auto companies are practicing failing business practices. Providing them a loan to increase their R&D simply delays the inevitable failure of the companies and puts taxpayers in a deeper hole. The fact of the matter is that the auto industry is burdened by obnoxiously high labor/retirement costs. Until that issue is addressed, these companies are doomed.

Sometimes filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy is a good thing. In this case it would help get rid of or reform the unions as well as company management in this industry that has refused to change the way they do business in the face of a great spiral of economic doom.

As for "federal oversight of how the money is spent"...there is only one way to address that one:

I'm back.

Sorry for the lack of posting recently. Things in the real world have been pretty hectic with the DJ starting a new gig.

Well that....and catching up on my sleep.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

First shot fired for '12?

“Drill baby drill by itself is not an energy policy.”
-Gov. Tim Pawlenty,
RGA Conference, 11/12/08
"Drill baby drill"? That phrase was repeated over and over again by Gov. Palin and her audience at each and every political rally that she attended.

Now, I may be looking a bit too much into this, but Gov. Pawlenty, who has 2012 aspirations himself, may just be making the first veiled attack of the next Presidential primary season.

If so, now is not the time or the place for mocking or attacking fellow Republicans in order to lessen their legitimacy or build up your own.

Remember who the enemy is. Always.

Disrespecting Federalism

The following is an e-mail I just received from a friend regarding the recent passage of Prop 8 in California, a referendum on the state ballot that created an amendment to the California State Constitution that states marriage is solely between a man and a woman. Here is the message:
"I wanted to share something with you that is a very important issue to me and many others. I don't know if you voted republican, democrat, or how you feel on any issues, but I don't think that vote forces you into agreeing with your party across the board. Therefore I wanted to reach out to all of you that I call friends to see if you will join me in a nationwide protest against the passing of Proposition 8.

This is not a California issue. This is an issue of equality across America. If equality for all citizens is something you believe in, please join me and countless others across the US to be sure our voices are heard. Join us on November 15 to unite our voices against H8 and other recent legislation that seeks to make second-class citizens of LGBTQ Americans! In DC we will be meeting on the steps of the Capitol and be marching down across the Mall and to the White House.

This is a nationwide event. Every major city in America (and some around the world) will be protesting on 11/15 at 1:30 EST (or 10:30 PST). Please pass this information along to anyone, here in DC, or across the nation, that you think would like to stand up and speak out for what they believe in.

Please check out the facebook event page for more details: DC Protest Against CA Proposition 8"

I have several issues with this effort, and they have nothing to do with supporting or defending gay rights.

  • Fighting this referendum disrespects what this country was based on when the Founders drafted the Constitution: federalism. The right of states to choose what is best for them and their citizens, whether it be from laws passed through their legislative body or via voter referendum, is vital to the sanctity of our Constitution.

    Why federalism? Our U.S. Constitution contains numerous mentions of the rights and responsibilities of state governments and state officials vis-a-vis the federal government. The federal government has certain expressed powers including the right to levy taxes, declare war, and regulate interstate and foreign commerce. In addition, the necessary-and-proper clause gives the federal government the implied power to pass any law "necessary and proper" for the execution of its express powers. Powers that the Constitution does not delegate to the federal government or forbid to the states—the reserved powers—are reserved to the people or the states. This simply means that California has every right to make up its mind for itself.

  • If anyone wants to protest Prop 8, they have every right to do so, but it must be based on the legality of the measure and nothing else. Simply because you don't like the result of an election is no rational reason to protest its outcome in an effort to overturn it. Now, without studying much into the legislation, there does seem to be a lawsuit currently filed that addresses the State constitutionality of the measure: On November 5, three lawsuits were filed, challenging the validity of Proposition 8 on the grounds that revoking the right of same sex couples to marry was a constitutional "revision" rather than an "amendment", and therefore required the prior approval of 2/3 of each house of the California State Legislature. If this is true then the opponents of Prop 8 may have a case.

  • Opponents of Prop 8 had their chance already. They blew it. The people of California spoke. Democracy worked. Get over it.

Ohioans: Still dumb.

Now, I'm not exactly a big fan of Sen. Voinovich. I'll admit he was a great Governor for Ohio, and while he is one of the more principled members of the U.S. Senate, he is clearly not as conservative as I'd like. But with that being said, this poll that came out recently pretty much made me question the sanity of Ohioans across the state.
"The Dayton Daily News reports PPP shows Vonovich (R-Cleveland) getting beat by Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 42 to 38 percent and also being beat against Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 40 to 38 percent."
Jennifer Brunner? The Jennifer Brunner who got away with this kinda crap? And this? And this!?

Yep. That one.

Clearly, this isn't acceptable. Brunner has no honor and has disrespected the office to which she was elected. And it's up to Ohioans to stop this train before it builds up anymore speed.

While voter fraud may not be in the news anymore, it's still vital that news organizations throughout Ohio dig deeper into the plethora of voting scandals that plagued Ohio during this election cycle and made the Buckeye state a national joke in the media and elsewhere.

Keep investigating. Keep pounding away. Build up the ammo necessary to make sure Secretary of State Brunner never represents Ohio again.

UPDATE: It was recently pointed out by a reader that the DDN has updated their article since this 3BP post was published. It turns out the PPP poll referenced by the paper was taken over the course of this past year. Yes, the whole year. Someone remind me never to pay attention to PPP polls again. Since the accuracy is suspect there just may be hope for Ohioans afterall. It should also be pointed out that a recent SurveyUSA poll gauged Voino's approval rating at a respectable 51%.

Oh, well in that case...

Tuesday, November 11, 2008


It's about damn time I figured out what I'd look like if I were a muppet.

Make your own.

Ain't it great that we can finally have some fun on this blog again?!

Newt vs. Steele

Talk about a win-win pick, eh? Both are solid conservatives. Both understand in which direction the Party needs to go. Both will benefit the Republican Party and help us return to our roots.

But, that doesn't mean there aren't differences.

In actuality, the question Republicans must ask is this....do we want a chair who is a spokesperson or one who builds the Party?

Steele is brilliant on TV. He has a good sense of humor. He communicates the conservative message effectively. He's smart. But he does not have experience in organization building.

Newt would likely serve similarly to how Howard Dean has at the DNC...behind the scenes. Newt would do what he proved capable of in '94: developing new and unique ideas, developing strategy to take advantage of whatever the political climate turns out to be in our liberally controlled Republic and building the kind of organization necessary to do so. One negative from Newt's efforts in '94 was his lack of focus on recruiting quality candidates. Because of this Republicans have suffered recently by accepting Congressmen who were more focused on building their own power set than helping their district. However, the '94 revolution was based more on the political environment created by Clinton which enabled Republicans to take full advantage, rather than the quality of individual candidates. Recruiting was simply less important than developing the proper message. I call that prioritzation. And it worked.

So what do we want? Are we so worried about our image as Republicans that we let that take precedence over redeveloping a quality Party organization and message?

Newt for Chairman.

UPDATE: A commenter brought up a severely missed point on my part, namely Steele's time as Chairman of the Maryland GOP. His tenure there lasted less than two years, so the only year to really judge his Party building experience would be the congressional elections in 2002. In this election, all congressional districts stayed in the hands of the Party that won them in 2000, except the 8th congressional district where Rep. Connie Morella(R) lost to Chris Van Hollen; a net loss for Republicans of one congressional seat.

It should be noted that Rep. Bob Ehrlich did win the Governor's race in 2002 in an upset after Steele left his position as Chairman of the Party and became Lt. Governor. However, this was in the face of several local and congressional losses and against a poorly run race by an inexperienced Lt. Gov Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

"Moichandising!" - Yogurt, 'Spaceballs'

The latest version of the 3BP Palin '12 bumper sticker:

Get yours today.

Friday, November 7, 2008

The Experience Argument

Ah, the blame game continues. Today's episode of 'Blame Sarah Palin' is brought to you by Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post.

Now, don't get me wrong. Krauthammer is a fantastic writer and has put together some brilliant columns. But he couldn't be more wrong in accepting this belief, as written in his column today:

"Palin was a mistake (" near suicidal," I wrote on the day of her selection) because she completely undercut McCain's principal case against Obama: his inexperience and unreadiness to lead. And her nomination not only intellectually undermined the readiness argument. It also changed the election dynamic by shifting attention, for days on end, to Palin's preparedness, fitness and experience -- and away from Obama's."
Now let's look back at what Krauthammer had to say back on Sept. 4th, right after Palin was nominated:

"Obama was sagging because of missteps that reflected the fundamental weakness of his candidacy. Which suggested McCain's strategy: Make this a referendum on Obama, surely the least experienced, least qualified, least prepared presidential nominee in living memory.

Palin fatally undermines this entire line of attack. This is through no fault of her own. It is simply a function of her rookie status. The vice president's only constitutional duty of any significance is to become president at a moment's notice. Palin is not ready. Nor is Obama. But with Palin, the case against Obama evaporates."
Chuck, I love ya, man...but you are completely missing a huge point. You missed it in September and you're missing it again now by refusing to evolve your message.

The problem with Palin wasn't her experience, it was how the McCain campaign sold her to the press and to the public. They focused on her being a reformer, a Governor...a Mavericky Maverick. But they never effectively communicated a vital asset, comparing her experience with Obama's.

It's understood that the amount of time Palin has spent in office is comparable to Obama's. But there is one key difference: Palin accomplished something.

The Governor's time in office is full of measurable successes that can be directly linked to her leadership. In comparison, Obama had nothing of substance to point to on his resume to prove he was capable of being bipartisan and accomplishing anything.

So let's imagine a situation where John McCain is being interviewed by a reporter who asks him to contrast the experience of Sarah Palin and Barack Obama. How should he have answered? And how should the campaign have answered everytime this question was brought up? How about this:

"You ask about experience? Let's look at their records. Barack Obama's experience includes time as a community organizer for ACORN, as a State legislator as recently as 2005, and not even one full term in the US Senate. A term where he hasn't even held one hearing on Afghanistan in the only committee he was given a chance to lead.

Now, what has Sarah Palin done in comparable time? She's been an executive. A leader. A Mayor. And she's been a Governor with the highest approval rating of any Governor in the country. Her accomplishments? She's managed a state budget larger than anything Bill Clinton ever had to work with when he was down in Arkansas. She proved herself as a fiscal conservative who used her line-item veto to slash hundreds of millions of dollars in wasteful spending from the state budget. She led the effort to reform ethics laws to make sure American's trust wasn't abused in Alaska. She negotiated trade deals with Canada. She broke a multi-year stalemate over the financing and construction of a $40 billion cross-state gas pipeline that will deliver cleaner, cheaper natural gas to Alaska's own population centers while also delivering gas to the energy-hungry Lower 48.

That, my friend, is experience. That is accomplishment. That is a leader. You worry about having someone inexperienced in the White House? Compare the records and you tell me which person is inexperienced. It isn't Governor Palin."
This theme should have been pounded into the very conscience of the American public from Day 1. McCain's campaign knew, or at least they should have known, that nominating Palin would bring questions about her experience. But, if they had managed it correctly they would have been able to use this renewed focus on experience to highlight Obama's lack thereof, in turn focusing the debate right into their hands and highlighting it better than they ever did over the course of the entire campaign.

Read this.

The best election post-mortem I've seen yet. Read it all here.

"It's obvious that this newfound pride is not confined to Americans alone. All across the world, Mr. Obama's election has helped mend America's tattered image as a racist, violent cowboy, willing to retaliate with bombs at the slightest provocation. The huge outpouring of international support following the election shows that America can still win new friendships while rebuilding its old ones, and provides Mr. Obama with unprecedented diplomatic leverage over our remaining enemies. When Russian tanks start pouring into eastern Europe and Iranian missiles begin raining down on Jerusalem, their leaders will know they will be facing a man who not only conquered America's racial divide but the hearts of the entire Cannes film community. And those Al Qaeda terrorists plotting a dirty nuke or chemical attack on San Francisco face a stark new reality: while they may no longer need to worry about US Marines, they are looking down the barrel of a strongly worded diplomatic condemnation by a Europe fully united in their deep sympathy for surviving Americans.

So for now, let's put politics aside and celebrate this historic milestone. In his famous speech at the Lincoln Memorial 45 years ago, Dr. King said 'I have a dream that one day my children will live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.' Let us now take pride that Tuesday we Americans proved that neither thing matters anymore."

Boom goes the dynamite.

Ladies & Gentlemen, courtesy of the most accurate pollster of the 2008 election, I present you the current frontrunner for the 2012 GOP nomination:
"Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable. Only eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of her, including three percent (3%) Very Unfavorable.

When asked to choose among some of the GOP’s top names for their choice for the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year -- Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.

Three other sitting governors – Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Charlie Crist of Florida and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota – all pull low single-digit support."

Now, is this all because of name recognition? It's definitely an aspect of it. But Rasmussen seems to infer that Palin, Romney and Huckabee all seem to have equal levels recognition:
"Jindal, Pawlenty, and Crist are far less known than the other candidates. Roughly 40% of GOP voters have no opinion one way or the other of these three Republican Governors."
Either way, when you have an approval rating of 91%, having high name recognition is nothing but positive news for Palin. She should be able to ride that tide of approval for quite awhile since she will be out of the news for quite some time, thereby removing the risk of sullying her reputation...or improving it.

It couldn't be more obvious that we have a lonnnngggg way to go until Iowa, but numbers like these only help in building support among influential insider Republicans and raising money.

Ideas of Newt

Marc Ambinder and Chris Cilizza have been following the names being considered for the next RNC Chair. Among them have been current Republican National Committee Chair Mike Duncan, former Maryland Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steele and Chip Saltsman, the former chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party and the presidential campaign manager for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Steele would be a very solid choice. As current chairman of GOPAC, he's a solid conservative with quality communication skills. He has no future in Maryland politics so the Chairmanship of the RNC would be appealing to him.

But there is one name that these journalists haven't been floating: Newt Gingrich.

And he very well may be interested.

"As Georgia Republican Leadership meet today to plan for the expected run-off of Saxby Chambliss against Jim Martin, my sources tell me Gingrich is having meetings to discuss his own race.

Newt is best known for leading the charge for the Contract with America. It is this famed Contract that has been credited for the Republican take-over of the US House and Senate in 1994. It is also well believed among traditional Republicans that it has been the abandonment of this contract by elected Republicans that has lead to their downfall."
Newt is an idea man. While his American Solutions organization did an amazing job invigorating the 'Drill Here, Drill Now' campaign, the time is now to get him back as a major player on the inside, rather than the outside.

Currently, the Republican Party is lacking in big and creative solutions. This can be remedied by providing Newt more influence within the Party. As Chairman, he will oversee organization and candidate recruitment. With his ideas, tenacity and skill, he could provide the RNC with a strategical, rather than tactical direction.

Is he a polarizing figure? Of course he is. But that may be just what we need to help Americans understand our vision for America. A vision that was so clearly not displayed in this Presidential campaign.

Newt for RNC Chair.

Lord have mercy!

ABC has done what even Fox News failed to do....discuss the Palin story by using a NAMED SOURCE. Oh the humanity!
"Stapleton says that during a briefing session, someone asked Palin to explain the McCain-Palin stance on an issue, and as she was responding, “in the middle, she said, ‘country of Africa’ and somebody instantly wrote it down, and said, ‘Oh, my God, she thinks it’s a country.’”

But Stapleton insists, “She knows it’s a continent. It was just a human mistake, just like Obama saying 57 states. I don’t think anyone ever doubted that Obama knows there are 50 states.”

Stapleton adds that a McCain-Palin campaign speechwriter was flown in to write a speech for Governor Palin to deliver Tuesday night after the election results were in. But after a discussion, aides decided Palin would not give a speech that evening — only McCain would speak.

Stapleton says Palin didn’t understand why they would bring in a speechwriter and then not use the speech they wrote for her which was complimentary of McCain."
As you'll recall, the anonymous stories coming out of Newsweek and Fox News discussed how Palin "thought 'Africa' was a country" and became a diva upon learning she wouldn't be giving a speech on Tuesday night.

Amazing what using a source does, eh?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Playing it smart...so far...

Kudos go out today to Reps. Roy Blunt, Eric Cantor and Adam Putnam.

Thanks to them, House Republicans are so far avoiding a civil war.

Blunt and Putnam are stepping down, and Cantor is doing the responsible thing and not challenging Boehner for Minority Leader. Instead he seems to have already locked up the Minority Whip job that Blunt so honorably surrendered.

Those who knew they needed to step down, are...and the right guys are stepping up to fill the void.

Screw plumbing.

Utilizing website designers from 1996, Joe the Plumber has decided to drop plumbing and go into the 'watchdog' business.
"Despite rumors that I may be running for congress, or perhaps give a shot at the country music scene, I have decided to continue forward with what I have repeatedly said is my civic duty. Your tremendous support and encouragement deserves no less.

Real change in America will only begin if the backbone of this country becomes personally involved in demanding more from our elected officials, and by helping one another in times of need. This is my new mission in life, and I ask you to join me in the fight to secure our American Dream."
Ya know, he wasn't exactly who I was thinking of when I was discussing who needs to take charge in the GOP, but props to him for taking advantage of his opportunity.

Need something to replace the 'W' sticker on your car?

U-N-I-T-Y....it spells "go f*** yourself!"

Yesterday we learned about Rahm Emanuel becoming Obama's first choice for Chief of Staff. Yes, the same Rahm Emanuel who upon learning of the Democratic victory in 2006 stood up in front of his staff at the DCCC and exclaimed, "[Republicans] can go f*** themselves."

Yes, really.

And today we learn that Robert Gibbs has been tapped to be Obama's Press Secretary. What does Gibbs bring to the new Obama World Order? The kind that even Markos Moulitsas Zuniga of the world's most popular liberal political blog, the Daily Kos, said of Gibbs in 2007:
"Obama clearly dipped into the slimiest corners of DC to pluck out Gibbs.

Politics is dirty business, indeed. And there’s no doubt that Obama’s rapid response has been stellar.

But one can’t help but get a little cynical hearing Obama talk about 'changing the tone' and all that bullshit, while hiring a well-known smear-meister best known for his work trashing other Democrats."
Rahm and Gibbs. Professional smearmeisters who have an established reputation of being overtly partisan. Ya know, I figured I'd be saying I told you so to a lot of my friends that were Obama supporters...I just never knew it would start so early.

UPDATE: You can add Axelrod to the list. He's Obama's Rove.

And I would also like to stress that I'd have no problem with these appointments had Obama run primarily on getting his agenda done. Instead, he ran on bipartisanship and bridging the divide between Republicans and Democrats; changing the tone, as Kos puts it. Instead, he has already violated the trust provided him by the electorate by making his first appointments individuals that so clearly represent opposite of the theme of his campaign. Amazing.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama clearly has ushered in a new era of unity and bipartisanship

Oh wait. No he hasn't.

Anyone "RSVPing" to this should be embarrassed of themselves.

Sen. Gordon Smith loses.

Senate Dems are up to 57.

And with that, your new Senator from Oregon...

The Civil War has already begun...

If anyone believes this trash McCain staffers are leaking to Newsweek/Fox News, they need their head examined.

These guys are breaking the Reagan commandment...never speak ill of fellow Republicans.

Especially when it's bullshit.


My girlfriend's pug was 'fixed' on Election Day. I'm not sure who had a worse day. Her or me.


A simple request...

Since the Palin bashing seems to have continued in the MSM, I'd like to challenge just one source to come forward and leave behind their anonymity in trying to destroy the reputation of the Alaskan Governor.

'Til then, this is just a ruse. And a shameful one at that.

I'm still grieving a bit...

Biden is brilliant.

Just call him Carnac.

"Mark my words, it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America.

"Watch. We're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.

"And he's going to need help . . . to stand with him. Because it's not going to be apparent initially; it's not going to be apparent that we're right."

Too close for comfort.


Ah, I love Ted Knight. Brilliant actor.

But I digress! It seems a lot of national media is reporting that State Sen. Steve Stivers has indeed won the 15th District race in Ohio. After speaking with sources close to the campaign it is far from a done deal. Currently, Stivers is ahead of Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a mere 321 votes. Provisional and Absentee votes are currently being tabulated and there should be an unofficial update by the end of the day.

Keep your fingers crossed. Stivers is one of the good guys and would be a big win in the face of the Obama tidal wave.

But no matter what, Democrats actually do have something to be disappointed in...and that's a below expectations showing in the Senate and House races.

Dems were hoping to gain 30 seats in the House. As of right now they've gained anywhere from 13-18 seats. More are undecided but it's clear they won't be close to the 30 they were hoping for. And the Senate seems stuck at 56 for the Dems. Chambliss will win. So will Gordon Smith(pretty amazing, actually). And Coleman seems to have beaten Franken.

Now the Dems better be prepared to kiss Lieberman's butt.

And so it begins...

Here is a solid article in the online version of Newsweek today. It discusses strategies Sarah Palin must use as she begins development of her plan to run for President in 2012. Read the whole thing.

"When conservative leaders gather in Virginia on Thursday to assess the fallout from the presidential election and start planning their comeback, they will also be taking a closer look at their new potential standard-bearer, Sarah Palin."
They have the strategies nailed until they recommend her not running for re-election in 2010 in lieu of joining the celebrity circuit and picking up a talk show gig.

I know the celebrity angle worked for Obama, but that can't be Sarah's style. Her reputation is one of lacking policy gravitas. This can only be gained through serious policy proposals and influencing the national debate through serious means....not by guest hosting The View.

Barack Obama has already cost me $15.00

Maybe I should have kept my car in the garage last night.

Maybe I should have taken my McCain/Palin sticker off my car when I got home from work.

Maybe I should dropkick the next Obama supporter I see.

I awoke this morning refreshed and ready to start the work day. Alas, it was to be delayed. After I removed my Mac bumper sticker from the back of my car I was ready to hit the road. And hit the road I did.

With a flat tire.

It seems sometime last night that someone felt the need to put a nice hole in my right front tire.

I, for one, welcome our new overlords.


By popular demand...

Already received a few e-mails from people interested in Palin bumper stickers.

Well, here ya go.

We never claimed to be artists. Ha.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Props to McCain

Great speech.

You fought hard against virtually impossible odds.

The challenge.

"We must not promise what we ought not, lest we be called on to perform what we cannot."
- President Abraham Lincoln

How appropos...

Col. Jessep: [Judge dismisses the jury after Jessep's revelation on the stand about the Code Red] What is this? What's going on? I did my job, I'd do it again!

[stands up defiantly] I'm gonna get on a plane and go on back to my base. What the hell is this?

I'm being charged with a crime? Is that what this is? I'm being charged with a crime? This is funny. That's what this is. This is...
[turning to Kaffee and lunging at him]

...I'm gonna rip the eyeballs out of your head and piss in your dead skull! You f**** with the wrong Marine!

You f*****' people... you have no idea how to defend a nation. All you did was weaken a country today, Kaffee. That's all you did. You put people's lives in danger. Sweet dreams, son.

Reid and Pelosi currently on Fox.

I mention this only as a warning. Keep your televisions off.

It ain't pretty.



John Kennedy....no, not THAT one...

The John Kennedy running for Senate against Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.

He's keeping it close and may pull it out.

If so, this will be a major win for GOP up and comer Gov. Bobby Jindal. Jindal recently threw his full support behind Kennedy and even did a commercial for him.

How does the GOP respond to this?

Will they unite? Or will they spend the next two years stabbing eachother in the back to get to the top?

The problem with being in the absolute minority is that there is no clear Party leader.

Boehner? Not his style.
McConnell? Too bland.
The RNC Chair? Whoever it is will be too busy playing referee.

Newt? Palin?

We need a leader.

Ten bucks...

That Obama stops in the middle of his scripted acceptance speech.

Bows his head down.

Starts smiling.

Puts a finger up in the air as if to say, 'hold on a sec...'

And says,...

"I can't believe you guys fell for that crap."

It begins tomorrow...

Update from a friend out west...

Her son Dash isn't taking this very well. Sorry Mags.

Who are the five most important people for the GOP come January?

1. John Boehner
2. Whoever is the NRCC chair.
3. Mitch McConnell
4. Whoever is the NRSC chair.
5. Whoever is the RNC chair.

It's gonna be all about candidate recruitment and fundraising.

Fox calls Ohio for Obama

Florida and Ohio.

Both are completely even right now, per their state election websites.

Megyn, no one cares about New Mexico exit polls.

But if that gets you more camera time, I'm all for it.

It seems one thing is clear.

Brit Hume is drunk.

David Axelrod has a Hitler haircut.

Sieg Socialism!

Florida is tied.


Virginia is lost.

50-48 McCain.

But Arlington County in Northern VA hasn't even begun counting.

One thing is for sure.

The GOP blogosphere spread a TON of misinformation about internal polls the past couple weeks.

Quite a few folks have lost complete and total credibility with what is transpiring tonight.

50-49 in Florida

Things are staying close. Let's go panhandle.

Chambliss wins GA

Very good news.

Now we just need Franken to get his butt whooped.

Obama continues to close in VA

42% in.

52-46 McCain.

PA goes to Obama

Need Florida. Indiana. Ohio. Colorado.

We may not get any of them.


Prepare yourselves.

Uh oh.

More updates from Johnny Utah.

Ohio and Pennsylvania are in fact going for Obama.

If true, game over.

Still waiting on Gary, Indiana...

That's going to give Obama the lead. Let's see if the rural counties can save it.

VA closing fast for Obama

33% in.

McCain only up 9. Still waiting on Northern VA.


Fox calls it for Kay Hagan in NC. Kicked Dole's butt. I think the 'atheist' ad was the nail in the coffin for Liddy.


Florida website has Obama up only 100k with the panhandle yet to be counted.

CNN has called Pennsylvania for Obama

Let's hope they are as wrong as they normally are.

Hearing more bad things about Indiana...

If that happens McCain needs BOTH PA and VA.

Northern VA still not counted...

According to their website. Only one precinct in Arlington and Alexandria has been counted.

That makes DJ sad.

Fox showing the scene in Chicago...

Looks like Obama's folks are following the rule set by Reagan advisor, Mike Deaver.

It's all about image.

Use flags. Lots of flags.

Megyn Kelly

Call me.

Barone on Fox

...is giving us some bad news about VA.

McCain is running 10 points behind where Bush was in '04 in the Richmond suburbs. Let's hope the rain kept Dems away in Northern VA.

Don't get too excited...

With early returns.

Wait 'til a state has about 10-15% in before getting a sense of the trend.

Here comes Ohio, NC and VA

Don't do me wrong, Ohio.

Keep your fingers crossed on VA.

12% reporting in Indiana and McCain's lead is growing...

Let's hope NW Indiana has already been counted.

Eric Shawn from Fox

Is in the Cuyahoga County warehouse where votes are counted.

Guess he drew the short straw.

First bit of bad news...

Johnny Utah is hearing some bad things about Indiana via one of his sources. BAD things.


I need a beer.

Things are tight for McConnell

I'd hate to lose him from the Senate. He's one of the few good ones.

The networks

I just spent 5 minutes scrolling through NBC, CBS and ABC.

There coverage is just awful. It's like political analysis for 6 year olds.

Watch Fox.


...really needs to at least take Barack Obama to dinner before going to bed with him.

God, their coverage sucks.


...is the only state you should bother watching as Fox scrolls through the early results.

Annnnnnnd we're off....

Hope everyone is watching.

Patience, everyone...

Nothing to do now but wait.

And remember, exit polls are for sissies.

Cutting Class: Student Voting Across America

The youth vote has been one of the most constant themes of the 2008 campaign... at least excluding those that involved plumbers, change or that tingling sensation in Chris Matthews' leg.

It's a demographic that has been dazzled by Barack Obama (2.4 million "supporters" on Facebook compared to 625,000 for John McCain), and was one that his campaign was counting on for significant support.

The big question all along has been "will they actually show up when it matters?" Just a little over halfway through the day in much of the country, those college students seem to be grading out as Incomplete.

Students at a polling place near Temple University in Philadelphia were waiting on a 45-minute line at last check. That same polling place had a very short line for much of the morning. Here's a video report from the invaluable Palestra.net. (Short lines at USC as well)

At Ohio State, the polling places near campus report having a steady flow of voters during the lunch hour... but multiple empty voting machines around 2:00 pm.

Students are waiting in long lines at the University of Michigan (link goes to another Palestra.net video).

Lines are much shorter at the University of Missouri.

Not that it really matters, but the turnout at several schools in Illinois has been reported as light as well. There was no line at Loyola University in Chicago and a very short wait at the University of Illinois. And then there's Northwestern University on the North Side of Chicago.

There's a rock on campus that student groups can "reserve" and paint for a day. Check out the paint job for today.

Uh oh.

Turnout is high.

And not just at my voting location.

UPDATE: Unfortunately, all we can do right now is hurry up and wait. Anecdotal evidence suggests turnout is high pretty much everywhere. While my location was crowded this morning, I have heard from several that turnout elsewhere in Northern VA is light. Also hearing from friends working for McCain in SW Ohio that turnout is very heavy.

Exit polls will start coming out around 5, but don't waste your time. They are notoriously erratic and unreliable.

3BP will be blogging through the night so keep hitting refresh like your life depends on it.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Don't be stupid, America.

You don't want to turn this down.

In Berman We Trust

Tonight's halftime interview on Monday Night Football of Obama and McCain may well determine the Presidency.

Crazy, eh?

Think about it. Polls are within margin of error in Pennsylvania and Virginia. They've also shown men swinging back and forth between the two candidates. And Monday Night Football will be the final massive audience with whom the two candidates will have a chance to speak.

And who is playing tonight? The Steelers and Redskins.

Pennsylvania & Virginia. The big ones.

The question now becomes...how serious, if at all, will sportscaster Chris Berman take the interview? Will it all be fluff or will he give the candidates a chance to address a serious issue or two?

Since there has been no time to make any serious hit on Obama for his words on the coal industry, does McCain take a chance to address the issue for all of western Pennsylvania to hear?

To fluff, or not to fluff. It may determine the election.

What to watch for tomorrow

So where do we stand? Well, things couldn't be much more confusing. You have polls from the key swing states saying things are as close as ever...then you have national polls telling you it's going to be a blowout. People are walking back and forth from the ledge so often that they are wearing out the soles on their shoes.

But, in my altogether completely insignificant opinion, I haven't felt this good about the election since before Fannie Mae went down the crapper a few weeks ago.

While the RCP poll average currently shows a 6 point lead for Barack, the polls that are most well respected and have historically been the most accurate show things tightening. Undecideds seem to be breaking for McCain. In my opinion, the only thing that can stop a McCain victory is early voting. The question ultimately is, of all the new registrations, did they turn out and did they vote overwhelmingly for Obama? If so, Obama should have this thing locked up.

I solidly believe several states currently identified as swing states by the media, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Indiana...will break for McCain. Therefore, if McCain is to win he needs to win a mixture of Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado. We don't need all, but we do need a certain mix of them. Now McCain may win all four or none of them, but what would the map look like if he were to barely pass the 270 vote threshold? There are two scenarios with both based on Ohio as a must-win.

But enough talking about the what ifs...let's look at the pretty pictures.

In my opinion, this map is the most likely scenario. Virginia and Colorado will fall, but Pennsylvania and Ohio go red giving McCain 273 votes.

The other viable winning scenario for Mac?

Pennsylvania falls. If this happens a Virginia AND Colorado win is an absolute must.

So as you sit down in front of your TV tomorrow, remember the first states to worry about are Virginia and Pennsylvania. McCain must win one of them. If he wins both, this thing is over.

We few, we happy few...

I have many memories from all the campaigns I've worked upon through the years. The ups and the downs...the successes and failures(fortunately many more successes). One that stands out for me as we head into this Election Eve comes from 2004.

I had taken time off from work in DC to go back home to central Ohio and help my friends that were running the Ohio Bush campaign. As you'll recall, things were tense the night before. Polls were all over the place and all we could do was our best as we headed into election day.

Check the voter lists. Get out the vote. Work our tails off.

As Monday night turned into Election morning we held our final statewide conference call with the 88 county campaign managers. The state campaign manager went through the checklist for things to get done on election day, but he knew he didn't need to. The team Ohio put together to win the Buckeye state for President Bush was second to none. They knew what they were doing...but they were exhausted. All that could be said were words written much more eloquently by a guy named William Shakespeare. Now this may seem cheesy to those of you reading this now, but at the time it was exactly what we needed to hear. And in my opinion, reading this speech aloud to everyone on the phone that night is what drove the final nail in the coffin and won the Buckeye state for the President.

So for those fighting the good fight, remember these words as you wake up at 4am Tuesday morning to go canvas one last swing precinct, remember them as you struggle to finish calling one last GOTV list, remember them late Tuesday night when you can turn to your friend, raise your glass and say, "we did it".

For the youtube challenged:

This day is called the Feast of Crispian:
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a-tiptoe when the day is named,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall see this day and live t'old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say "To-morrow is Saint Crispian":
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars
And say "These wounds I had on Crispin's day."
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester,
Be in their flowing cups freshly remembered.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he today that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now abed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day. (IV, iii)

Sunday, November 2, 2008

The elephant in the room...

My apologies to all my loyal readers for the lack of posting today. I was traveling a bit and took some time to do what we all must do....GOTV.

A friend and I visited Virginia McCain HQ in Arlington, VA to make some GOTV calls this evening. We called around VA and even out in CO. The phone banks were pretty packed and spirits were high. But there was definitely an elephant in the room...in more ways than one.

Things are close in VA. How close? Try three to four points...and closing fast.

But the only way we win Virginia, and every close and must-win state, is GOTV. This race is NOT over. You CAN make a difference. Tonight, call your local county Republican Party HQ. Find out where they are and go make some GOTV phone calls for an hour or two. You'll respect yourself in the morning...which I imagine is not what you were saying after you dressed up as a Sexy John McCain this past halloween weekend.

Keep an eye out for the official 3BP electoral college scenario post tomorrow afternoon. I'll put together what to look for as we head into the final stretch.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Boehner must stay as GOP House Leader

If for no other reason than this quote:
"Now, listen, I've voted 'present' two or three times in my entire 25-year political career, where there might have been a conflict of interest and I didn't feel like I should vote," Boehner said. "In Congress, we have a red button, a green button and a yellow button, alright. Green means 'yes,' red means 'no,' and yellow means you're a chicken shit. And the last thing we need in the White House, in the oval office, behind that big desk, is some chickenshit who wants to push this yellow button."
What's he talking about? The fact that Obama voted 'present' 129 times as a State Senator in Illinois. Now if you click on my link above from factcheck, they go on to tell you he voted present only 3% of the time. That may be true, but these 'present' votes weren't for just anything. They were for very serious legislation. For example:
"...in 1997, Obama voted "present" on two bills (HB 382 and SB 230) that would have prohibited a procedure often referred to as partial birth abortion. He also voted "present" on SB 71, which lowered the first offense of carrying a concealed weapon from a felony to a misdemeanor and raised the penalty of subsequent offenses.

In 1999, Obama voted "present" on SB 759, a bill that required mandatory adult prosecution for firing a gun on or near school grounds. The bill passed the state Senate 52-1. Also in 1999, Obama voted "present" on HB 854 that protected the privacy of sex-abuse victims by allowing petitions to have the trial records sealed. He was the only member to not support the bill."
It goes on and on if you'd like to see a bit more.

What a chickenshit.

100 bucks he says 'pump you up'...

Here's a report from 3BP reporter Duke Buck who is stuck at work in Columbus, Ohio and conveniently placed in the line of sight of the gigantic Ahnuld/McCain rally set for early this evening at Nationwide Arena.

"It could easily be mistaken for a stop on the American Idols tour or summer concert, but it's the McCain-Palin rally at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH. Even though doors didn't open till 3 pm and the show doesn't officially start till 5 pm, lines were wrapping around the stadium at around 2 o'clock. The media trucks were lined up like so many ducks in a row, with their satellite dishes and antennas aplenty. Music was blaring and it looked like a good time was being had in the festive atmosphere, as media types crawled the line for interviews and button sellers hawked their wares."
When I was at McCain HQ in Columbus earlier this week they were hoping to fill all 25,000 seats. Methinks they are gonna top it. Easily.

What a drag.

We here at Third Base Politics been hearing many stories lately of Sarah Palin being a drag on the GOP ticket.


Today both Biden and Palin visited Williamsport, PA. Only one left a star. From WNEP in Williamsport:
"It all started around 2 p.m. at Lycoming College's Lamade Gymnasium on Mulberry Street. Several hundred people packed the gym for a opportunity to show their support for the Obama - Biden ticket.


As Biden was speaking at Lycoming College, Republicans were filing into Bowman Field, just a few miles away. That's where Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will speak at about 7 p.m. At least 10,000 tickets have been given out to see the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin."
Further evidence can be seen in things as trivial as state poll results. For example, from the Strategic Vision Pennsylvania poll released today:
"The poll showed that 49% viewed Barack Obama favorably with 41% viewing him unfavorably; and 10% undecided. Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 47% of respondents with 39% viewing him unfavorably; and 14% undecided. John McCain was viewed favorably by 49% of respondents with 40% viewing him unfavorably; and 11% undecided. Sarah Palin was viewed favorably by 48% of respondents with 40% viewing her unfavorably; and 12% undecided."
So not only does Sarah have no noticeable variation of approval rating in the most important swing state in the country, but she draws crowds monumentally larger than her Democratic rival.

How could this possibly be perceived to be a drag?

In reality, the number of voters she draws to these rallies cannot be understated. Many casual observers may look at political rallies just as simple events meant to put on a good show for the media and the general public. In fact, rallies are intended to be as much for getting out the vote as they are for communicating message. Think about it...are people that are inspired to attend rallies more or less likely to go vote on Nov4? Unquestionably the answer is more likely. So when Sarah Palin is drawing 20,000 to 800 for Lonely Joe, which VP candidate really is the drag in an election that relies so much upon GOTV?

The McCain Campaign: Smarter Than We Thought

McCain Campaign Chair Rick Davis, per Politico:
"'In the last ten days of this campaign McCain will outspend Barack Obama on television,'" Davis said. He said McCain would air a direct-to-camera ad talking about how he's always put his country first."
Now let's take this further. Not only is McCain outspending Obama by $10 million, but this investment is going into fewer states than Obama, thereby increasing their effect. For example, McCain using this cash advantage in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia is more effective for his campaign than Obama spending his funds in several states where he feels he can win. However, I would recommend some skepticism until we see an analysis from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. These guys do a good job of analyzing what is spent where.

However, if this is in fact true, then the McCain campaign is particularly brilliant considering this study recently released that deduces the following:
"Recent studies of campaign advertising typically assess the response of voters to advertisements only from the last few weeks before the voter is interviewed. In so doing, they implicitly assume that the effects of advertisements decay over time. This paper attempts an explicit estimate of the rate of this decay for the Annenberg survey of voters in the 2000 election. Our results indicate that decay is fairly rapid. Even when the persuasive effect of ads on candidate preference is large, 50 to 75 percent of the effect dissipates within the first week and almost all is gone by the end of the second week. Along with other recent evidence, this tentative finding undermines the view that American voters are persuaded by information that accumulates during long campaigns and suggests instead the importance of tactical maneuvers by candidates to dominate the airwaves at the very end of campaigns."
In other words, the McCain campaign is dominating the airwaves at a time where swing voters are most vulnerable to influence. After the recent tightening of the polls it may be just what is needed to win this thing.