Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Good news and bad news in latest polls

First, the bad news. Two recent polls are trending in the wrong direction on Issue 2.

PPP released a poll last week showing the "NO" side is back out to a 20 point lead, 56-36. In August, the gap had closed, but now its opened again. Obviously, the constant stream of mistruths being put out by the enormous amount of out-of-state cash "We Are Ohio" has to work with is scaring some voters towards voting no. There are still reasons to believe that the November results will be close, though.

First, we have the usual problems with PPP's ridiculous sampling. Using a more realistic turnout model like we did here, the results become 53-39. Still, in August, that result was down to 7 points.

Second, PPP is still polling "registered voters", not "likely voters". Likely voter models are more predictive of who who actually go out and vote, and usually leans more conservative.

Third, the poll didn't use the Issue 2 ballot language. It still references "rights." As we have discussed, collective bargaining is not a right. It is a privilege given to a special group by the legislature. If it was a right, everybody would have collective bargaining power. They don't. The word "rights" evokes an emotional response. Since the word "rights" doesn't appear on the Issue 2 ballot, that may be skewing the results some.

Fourth, GOHP Blog reminds us that issue polling can be difficult and unreliable.  Take a look back at 2005 at how horribly wrong the polls were for the "Reform Ohio Now" issues.  Polls showed the issues passing by huge double digit margins.  But on election day, they were all soundly rejected.

Today's Quinnipiac poll reports similar results.

Now, onto the good news, which is Issue 3. The proposed amendment to the Ohio Constitution appears set to be approved, according to both polls. This health care freedom amendment was the largest all volunteer petition effort in Ohio history. As an amendment to the Constitution, it will also be unique among all 50 states, and give Ohio even better standing when the ridiculous Obamacare mandate gets settled in the courts.

Quinnipiac shows support for the amendment at 48-45. This is where the two polls diverge, however. PPP shows the amendment passing by an overwhelming 55-24 margin, and that's without our correction to PPP's sample.

[Update: DOH! Trying to work too quickly and pulled up the wrong Quinny poll.  Issue 3 was not asked about in their latest.  The link to today's Quinny poll has been corrected above.]

Since some of us here at 3BP were personally involved with the Issue 3 volunteer effort, that brings a lot of personal satisfaction.

Getting back to Issue 2, what's common in both polls is that voters overwhelming approve of some of the core features of Senate Bill 5 that would save cities and schools money. For example, by 60-33 percent, voters agree with requiring government employees to pay 15% of their health insurance premiums. (The private sector pays about twice that.) Voters also approve of asking public employees to pay 10% towards their pension funds by a margin of 58-33. Voters also approve of using merit as a basis for raises instead of just longevity, by a 21 9 point margin.

Unfortunately, the lies about safety and other such fear mongering obviously has voters confused, because it is obvious that they see a need for reforms.

Republicans and independents need to ask themselves this:

Who do you trust to make the final spending decisions for your city or school district? The people that you elected? Or the union bosses and unelected arbitrators?

If your answer is the people that you elected, than you must reject the union scare-tactics and class warfare, and vote YES on Issue 2.

Make sure you get out and vote in two weeks, and vote YES on both Issue 2 and Issue 3.


  1. If you check the underlying demographics of the latest Q poll you will also see that of the six regions in the state, union-heavy Northeast Ohio comprised 39% of those surveyed and Central Ohio 20%! How is that representative? Keep getting the word out 3BP!

  2. Nice quality control you guys have here. First you copy and paste something Jason Mauk said in his press release on Quinny verbatim without attribution and present it as your own thought, then you falsely claim that Ohioans support merit pay by twenty points.

    Wanna check the poll results and try again?

  3. Thanks for your concern, Modern. I acknowledged that I pulled up the wrong Quinny poll in my haste.

    Voters still approve of merit pay for determining raises. Is that what you wanted to draw attention to? :-)

  4. Regarding "copying" Mauk, don't be ridiculous. For one, I was talking about PPP, not Quinny.

    We've been talking about PPP's goofy samples for months.

    We also argued against the use of the word "rights" when referring to collective bargaining MONTHS ago.

  5. Sure, we can talk about merit pay... about how support for it has collapsed in a month.

    PPP's samples are no less "goofy" than when this site regularly cited PPP just last year.

    It's a registered voted sample. There are 2 million more registered Democrats in Ohio than Republicans (which is actually behind the number of Independents). That's why PPP has a more Democratic sample. Mystery solved.

    Regardless, there is no polling (public or private) showing Issue 2 is a competitive race right now two weeks out.

    The people have followed this debate all year and haven't changed their minds.

  6. You know my talking point line was about the PPP, poll right? Because what you said about it is directly pulled from a press release Mauk issued about it yesterday.

    No, no, you totally got that yourself, I'm sure. I'm sure it's just a coincidence it follows verbatim a campaign press release.

  7. Modern: You seriously think people aren't afraid to say that they are voting "Yes" after they've been demonized, threatened, attacked, etc., in a typical class warfare/hate campaign by Big Labor?

    We Are Ohio should take pause and consider the serious fact that, indeed, the "Reform Ohio Now" movement (which were MULTIPLE ballot measures) had the exact same lead in polls. And it all went down in flames - IN THE MIDST OF THE NOE COIN SCANDAL.

    There's something about those polls doesn't add up. And never has. A poll differs from an actual vote.

  8. No, Modern, I have no idea what you're talking about.

    First you say this: "First you copy and paste something Jason Mauk said in his press release on Quinny verbatim without..."

    Then you say "You know my talking point line was about the PPP, poll right"

    So...which Jason Mauk press release did I copy and paste, Modern? The PPP or the Quinny?

    Keep your accusations straight, eh?

  9. You realize that Mauk has issued a press release on both polls, right?

    Why cite the RON amendments? Why not Dewey beats Truman and the other cries of campaigns ready to fail?

  10. Ummm... because they were specific to Ohio maybe? Because it was recent history? Because they were ballot issues and not candidates? Because it was an odd-year election?

    A lot of similarities there, Modern.

    Dewey defeats Truman? Not so much.

  11. Building Better Ohio has been doing polling using a likely voter model, and it shows them losing, just not by 25 points.

    Give it up, guys. BetterOhio said in July that they thought the 10%/15% provisions could be hammered hard and lead to a victory. They did, and the polls haven't moved.

    Your entire argument about the "good news" ignores that there are only two provisions that still poll well, but its not enought t o get over the other provisions that poll incredibly unwell.

    It's insulting to say that the only possible way you are losing is because people are "confused." That was your excuse BEFORE the Building a Better Ohio campaign launched and you boldly predicted the polls would change as that campaign "educated" people about the Issue.

    They tried their method of "Education" and the people don't buy it. It's really just that simple. Issue 2 and John Kasich are horribly unpopular. More unpopular in Ohio than Ted Strickland and Barack Obama has ever been. I know you fanboys here of Kasich can't believe it, but it's true.

  12. Nathan-

    It's sad that you cannot possibly comprehend that people say No on 2 because they mean it.

    Voters haven't been demonized, threatened, or attacked into it. There's been a statewide conversation about this bill all year and people have made up their minds pretty much as soon as it was introduced, and its paultry number of supporters have been unable to convince Ohioans to rethink their position.

  13. LOL at "modern"

    comparing an issues popularity to obama...bud, obama is gone in 12 months,, i know inbred aids infested city girls like you don't like to face that but....


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