Quinnipiac and sample volatility

Last month's Quinnipiac poll of Ohio included some Party ID numbers in their sample that seemed a little fishy.

NRO highlighted the situation this way:

...today's sample was 24 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat, and 33 percent independent or no party, and the remaining 9 percent were other or refused to answer.

In February, Quinnipiac had it at 27 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, and 37 percent independent, and 4 percent other or refused to answer.

That 33/24 split among Democrats and Republicans really stands out, as the 2008 exit poll put the split in Ohio at 39 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican. In other words, does Quinnipiac really think that the makeup of the electorate will be better for Democrats on Election Day 2010 than it was in 2008?

Fishy findings indeed.

Well, I decided to follow up a bit with Quinnipiac and see where they stood in their most recent poll of the competitive Pennsylvania Senate race.

In their April 8th poll, Republican Pat Toomey is leading Democrat Senator Arlen Specter 46-41.

In their March 2nd poll, Specter was up 49-42.

Now take a look at the Party ID for each poll.

April 8: 34% GOP, 34% Dem, 27% Indie, 3% Other, 2% didn't know.
March 2: 29% GOP, 37% Dem, 28% Indie, 4% Other, 2% didn't know.

So based on that Party ID sample, the 13 point swing makes a bit more sense, doesn't it?

In 2008, Party ID in PA broke down this way - 44% Dem, 37% GOP, and 18% Independent.

Under the current environment, it's safe to say that margin between Parties has shrunk considerably and the Independent vote has increased.

But the point of this post is to highlight the volatility of polling. When pollsters test their sample without modeling it after the likely makeup of the electorate, it makes following the polling trends far more difficult.

For example, the story in PA after this poll is that Toomey has stormed back to take the lead. When in reality, the testing sample has simply changed considerably.

How likely is it that in one month the makeup of voters in PA changed by such a margin? I don't care how much people don't like health care reform. That many people switching Parties simply doesn't happen in one month.

If pollsters want to provide a true reflection of how a race is trending, they need to do a better job of reflecting the actual makeup of the electorate. A volatile sample over time doesn't assist in providing a true analysis of the race.

Fortunately, Quinnipiac will eventually begin testing Likely voters over Registered voters. That should provide a much more fair reflection of where things honestly stand.

Things happen fast in politics. But not that fast.

Two recent polls should send shivers down the spine of Democrats.

First, a Fox News poll taken April 6-7 of 900 registered(not likely, but registered) voters showed even lower approval numbers and even weaker confidence in President Obama.

Overall, the President is going deep. Deep underwater, that is.

At 43%, Obama's approval is at its worst yet. Even among Democrats, the President is setting records with a full 15% disapproving of him. At this time last year, that number was 4%. With Independents, Obama's approval sits at another all-time low, 38%.

His issue numbers are far worse.

On Afghanistan, The economy, Iran, Job creation, Health care, and Federal deficit, Obama's disapproval numbers among Democrats are all in the 20s to low 30s.

All polls point to the economy, and the issues around the economy, being the primary issue this election season. Health care comes in a distant second.

Well, the all-important Independents are pretty unhappy with the President in all of those categories.

Only 40% of Indies approve of the President on The economy. 30% approve on Job creation. 26%(!) approve on the Federal deficit. And 38% approve on Health care.

It doesn't take a genius to recognize these are dangerously low numbers. And when the country's swing voters don't have confidence in the President, his Party most certainly suffers in the midterms.

And that leads to the second poll that should lead to some major concern among Democrats.

Voter enthusiasm.

The importance of voter enthusiasm cannot be overstated. You can have whatever lead you want in the polls as you approach election day, but those leads mean nothing if your supporters don't vote.

And that's where Republicans have an immensely wide advantage.


As you can see, in the week prior to the big health care vote that Democrats so desperately believed would draw them even with Republicans in enthusiasm, the GOP held a 15-point advantage, 39-24, in enthusiasm.

Two weeks after that vote, that margin has done the opposite of what Democrats hoped with the margin increasing to 19-points, 54-35. Sure, the health care vote gave the Dems a slight bump, but it lit a much larger fire under the rumps of Republicans. And that's something those very same Democrats did not count upon.

Now it would be a pipe dream to believe the enthusiasm gap will stay that wide into election day, but it does highlight the severe challenge facing Democrats. And everytime lefties claim the GOP tide has flatlined, it only surges once again.

Eventually, things will likely even out, but it will take significant efforts, not to mention resources, to make that happen for Democrats.

But does their clear disappointment in the President preclude that from happening? And what can the President do to turn public opinion around?

Maybe that gap won't shrink that much after all.

Derail the Ohio 3-C Rail Project

With word yesterday that Ohio Governor Ted Strickland was going to move forward with the latest planning stage for the implementation of the decidedly wasteful 3-C Rail Project, it's about time Ohioans work to organize and communicate to the Governor what they think of slow-speed choo choos that waste their hard-earned taxpayer dollars.

Click here to join the Derail the Ohio 3-C Rail Project facebook group.

Yost's Big Idea to help with the Big Budget problem

This week Dave Yost, a Republican candidate for State Auditor, unveiled a new policy proposal that would create a state commission that will change the way Ohio develops its biennial budget.

The state commission would be made up of the auditor, treasurer and attorney general. It would be patterned after county budget commissions made up of the county treasurer, county auditor and county prosecuting attorney, said Yost.

The commission would have the authority to monitor revenue during the course of the year and to increase or reduce revenue estimates as needed, said Yost.

Naturally, his GOP primary opponent, Seth Morgan, came out against it? Why? I'm not really sure. It may be simply because he feels obligated just because he's the opponent....because his reasoning makes little sense.

Morgan, in a press release, questioned the value of such a commission.

"To have the auditor of state who is tasked with issuing an objective and independent financial audit report being involved with placing their credibility on the estimates of the revenue itself creates the appearance of a lack of independence in issuing that financial audit report,” Morgan said.

Interestingly enough, Morgan stands with Governor Strickland and ODP Chairman Chris Redfern in opposition to Yost's proposal. Considering the way Ohio has been run the past four years, is that really company Morgan would want to keep in an issue like this?

The way I understand it, as part of the proposed commission, the Auditor will be one of three independent state executive members that analyzes revenue and expenditures independent from Governor and legislature. Thus, with regard to auditing state agencies and programs, it would not conflict with the "independent" nature of the State Auditor's work. In fact, this would allow for more effective communications between the agencies.

Additionally, neither the auditor nor the commission would be telling the Governor or the general assembly specifically how they can spend the taxpayers funds. Consequently, the commission would ensure both entities would have the accurate, transparent, and clear revenue and expenditure estimates and projections without political posturing.

The idea would be that the commission would tell both the Governor and General Assembly how much they have or will have to spend, just like the county budget commissions tell the county commissioners how much they have or will have to spend in the next fiscal year. It creates a more open and transparent process without political agendas.

See, this is the way government should work - taking ideas that work at the local level and adapting them to state government in order to make a more efficient government. With this proposal, Yost, as the only candidate running for the job that has actually served as a County Auditor, helps drive home the point that experience counts.

And Representative Morgan should know a good idea when he sees one.

UPDATE: This post has brought up an interesting question. From a conservative perspective, is it better to have a more efficient or inefficient government?

It's a big question, and the parameters have to be set before debating it. For example, are we talking about government in its ideal state? Are we talking about a government with a fixed amount to spend?

In an ideal state, I'd support what a friend termed as "efficient, but limited to its proper scope".

But in its current state and under a fixed budget, an inefficient government that makes it more difficult for the government to influence how I want to live my life would be preferred.

Honestly, it's a topic that deserves its own book, let alone a post on a blog.

Either way, it seems Seth Morgan supports the same end goal as Dave Yost and prefers to expand government in order to increase efficiency, but by different means. His preference is the following:

House Bill 120 creates a Legislative Budget Committee and the Legislative Budget Office making a Committee of the Legislature that can be independent in its revenue estimates of that of the Governor.

Without researching, I'd suppose Yost's idea of following the model that has been tested at the County level would be preferred. But Morgan's proposal does deserve a proper hearing to determine its credibility.

Operation Dumb

Yesterday, Governor Strickland appeared with Operation Dumbo Drop star Danny Glover to rally with the factory workers of the Hugo Boss plant in Cleveland.

Yes, you read that right.

Apparently, the union workers are unhappy that Hugo Boss wants to, you guessed it, leave Ohio.

Anyone else sensing a trend?

The key to this entire issue lies in one key sentence that appeared in the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

In a letter Feb. 3 to Mark Brashear, chairman of Hugo Boss USA, Strickland asked the company to reconsider closing the plant. A week later, in a response to the governor, Stockert left little hope. "We listened to our employee representatives for months and, at their suggestion, met with your administration in December," he wrote. "Through the course of that process, it became apparent that neither your administration nor the union are in a position to change the economic realities in our business."

If there was such a thing as superbolding, I'd do it to the last sentence in that paragraph.

Ohio isn't doing enough. And it has no plans to change the way it does business.

That's why Hugo Boss is leaving.

But what's Strickland's response? A politically transparent move.

Read the sentence in the Hugo Boss letter one more time. Shouting into a bullhorn with the star of Lethal Weapon 3 along with a bunch of union workers does nothing to change the economic realities facing Hugo Boss.

And that's another thing.

Danny Glover? Really?

I wonder how many Ohioans would align themselves with Danny Glover's politics.

• This is the guy who blamed the Haiti earthquake on global warming. Seriously.
• The same guy who called President Bush a racist.
• A man who considers communist dictator Hugo Chavez a close friend.
• And a guy who needed to be arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

What a psycho.

Now don't get me wrong. The workers, their families, and the entire community have a right to be frustrated at their entire situation. But that anger should be refocused on Ted Strickland and his failure so far to provide an environment that provides an incentive for Hugo Boss to remain in Ohio.

And Danny Glover.

Tower to Ted Strickland - You have permission to crash and burn.

That headline? Totally stolen from a friend on twitter.

But so funny.

Anyways, here's the story.

The Governor's plane is housed at Don Scott Field.

Apparently that's 14 minutes too far away for Ted Strickland.

Instead, at the cost of taxpayer dollars, the Governor has forced the plane to make the five minute trip to Port Columbus so the Governor can get to his plane a little faster.

How many times has he forced the trip in the past three months? More than two dozen times, according to the Other Paper.

Now let's cut to the chase here. 14 minutes doesn't mean jack when it comes to the Governor's schedule. He can make phone calls or read up on memos that he would make in his office.

Plain and simple, this is Strickland abusing the privilege of being Governor. Is it a huge deal? No. But it does wash away Strickland's claims of being an average Ohioan. Instead, he's an aristocrat - a member of the political elite who maintains a clear sense of entitlement, just like so many other politicians.

Kasich's campaign spokesman hits the nail on the head with this quote:

“More than 426,000 Ohioans have lost their jobs on Ted Strickland’s watch and won’t wake up tomorrow to go to work,” said Nichols. “But because he likes hitting the snooze button, he makes a small army of people fire up his plane, get it ready and then fly it from one airport to another so he won’t have to drive an extra 15 minutes to the airport.”

What amazes me is the number of flights he's taking. Over 24 in just three months? Seriously? Is that a good use of taxpayer dollars? And it isn't even paying off!

Businesses are still leaving Ohio. So are jobs. And so are young people.

If you're going to so lavishly exploit the office of Governor, Mr. Strickland, at least don't suck at it.

Ed Gillespie for RNC Chairman

Michael Steele is done.

He may remain as Chairman through the next year, but any hopes for an effective chairmanship of the RNC have vanished. He's bloodied and bleeding. And there's no reason to think anything short of an overwhelmingly dominating month of fundraising in April can begin to save him.

Because of this now widely held perception by GOP insiders and, just as importantly, major GOP donors, Steele must go.

The problem? It's not easy to oust a Chairman who doesn't want to go anywhere. Voting members of the RNC are keeping their mouths shut. And interestingly enough, the big three, Boehner in the House, McConnell in the Senate, and Barbour for the Guvs, are as well. That silence has to give those looking for a Steele resignation hope. If at least two of those three call for his resignation, Steele is done.

So what happens then?

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post seems to think the most likely scenario would be the ascension of Jan Larimer, the Vice-Chair, to Chairwoman.

Nothing against Vice-Chair Larimer, but I hope that's not the case.

If Steele is ousted, the GOP will need a commanding force, but not dominating personality, in charge. They'll need a proven and trusted leader. They'll need someone they can count on. They'll need a winner.

That man? Ed Gillespie.

Cillizza also provides a good breakdown of Gillespie's positives, and one negative:

Gillespie is the rare high-profile political operative who has no enemies within the party. Talk to any Republican elected official or party strategist about Gillespie and he is roundly praised as a peerless strategic mind and one of the rising stars within the ranks. Gillespie has previously served as RNC chairman, which gives him relationships with committee members that other potential candidates don't enjoy. And, he is also well regarded among high-dollar donors -- an important constituency particularly in a presidential cycle. While Gillespie is a popular choice, it's not clear whether he would want to take on that sort of responsibility within the party -- particularly given that he's already been there and done that.

And there's the rub. Would he accept the post?

You have to hope so. Gillespie's skillful leadership of the RNC during the 2004 Presidential led to fantastic fundraising numbers and an unparalleled ground game. At the end of the day, it's also a good choice for Gillespie. Sure, his reputation is already stellar, but to lead the RNC back from the brink and to a takeover of the House would place him at a 'Haley Barbour in 1994' level of stardom within the GOP.

Now some may call for a higher profile leader to assume the chairmanship, but the last thing the RNC needs right now is another big personality. Selecting a Chairman isn't a choice for best spokesman. While occasionally appearing in front of the media is an obvious part of the job, it isn't the priority. Instead the job should be held by the best strategist, best organizer, and best fundraiser, all in one package. Instead of a big personality we need the strong, unassuming winner that inspires confidence in both the volunteers that win races and the donors that fund them.

And I guarantee, the week Gillespie assumes the chairmanship, the RNC will see one of the best fundraising hauls its ever seen in a non-Presidential year. Why? Because the powers that be will want to organize a show of force that shows the Party is behind its Bandaid Chairman.

So what do you say, Rep. Boehner, Senator McConnell, and Governor Barbour?

It's time to place a bandaid over the wound that has become the Steele chairmanship.

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This post can also be seen on Rightosphere

Ohio's House GOP isn't taking this lightly.

Companies are leaving Ohio. That's a fact. And Ohio's GOP leaders want to know what the Governor is doing about it.

If anything.

On Tuesday I detailed the efforts of GOP Ohio State Representative Terry Boose to obtain information from Governor Strickland and his Department of Development regarding the departure of a major company from Lorain County.

In a letter to Strickland's ODOD, Boose states:

In consideration of Ohio’s rampant job loss, I respectfully ask that you present to me the following information:

1. The date on which ODOD first learned that TeleTech Holdings, Inc. was looking to relocate;
2. The date on which ODOD first proactively reached out to TeleTech Holdings, Inc.; and,
3. The specific incentives that were included in the package to TeleTech Holdings, Inc.

All are fair questions. By thoroughly answering these questions, we'll know what efforts were made by Strickland's team to keep TeleTech in Ohio.

As we all know by now, Strickland's track record isn't too great. Just ask the thousands of former employees of NCR in Dayton.

But it seems these instances are just some of what is becoming a despicable trend of failures emanating from the Ohio Department of Development.

State Rep. Peter Beck made a similar request as Boose not too long ago. Unfortunately, it seems Strickland failed to make an adequate effort to prevent the departure of another company from Beck's district.

And Beck isn't taking this failure sitting down.

In response to a letter from the Department of Development, Beck states the following:

I would like to thank you for providing me with the letter to Warner Chilcott’s CEO that you wrote dated March 26th 2010 addressing your disappointment with the company’s closing of its Mason offices.

However, there are still some additional questions that have gone unanswered. I have asked, on several occasions, what preemptive steps you took to ensure that the jobs at Warner Chilcott were fought for? It appears that your March 26th letter was the first contact you made with the company since the March 17th announcement [of the company's departure] in the Cincinnati Enquirer. Was this in fact your only outreach to Warner Chilcott nine days after the company announced it was vacating the state of Ohio?

I have asked what you, as the chief leader of the state of Ohio, would suggest the steps be to fix our tax code to retain jobs in Ohio. I have heard no answer or response from you on this issue. Furthermore, when was your office aware that P&G sold the business to Warner Chilcott, and was this acquisition seen as “job retention” or “job creation,” in your opinion?

Lisa Patt-McDaniel, the head of the Governor's Department of Development, is one of the several members of the Governor's cabinet that was never sent to the Senate for approval.

It's my hope that the State Senate will make sure that Patt-McDaniel answers for the failures of her Department to even make an honest effort to keep Ohio businesses where they belong - in Ohio.

Laying it out on the table - Ohio's Real Tax Burden

Recently, Governor Strickland and his Tax Commissioner made waves by publicizing a faulty study claiming Ohio enjoyed a low tax burden relative to its neighbors.

Reality says otherwise.

As we were the first to mention, the data used for the study was blatantly mischaracterized despite the strict warning from the very source of the data - the U.S. Census.

So what's the reality? Well, the Tax Foundation has come out this morning with an analysis that helps us figure that out.

On the surface this type of analysis seems cut and dry, but the numbers are easy to misinterpret. The FTA analysis of Census data used by Levin compares only state tax collections and not state and local tax collections, resulting in an apples-and-oranges comparison due to states having varying levels of local tax powers. (Ohio has high local tax collections.) Census itself warns that its data does not account for tax incidence and should not be used in this way. Yet the FTA and Levin use it in this improper way anyway.

[...]

Local-level taxation makes up nearly 45% of all taxes collected in Ohio, relatively high among the states. Cherry-picking state data, as Levin did, thus results in an inaccurately positive measure for Ohio.

The delegation of powers and responsibility for services between localities and states vary greatly from one state to another. If two states provide the same level of services at the same costs, but one prefers to have most spending and taxing decisions made from the State Capitol while the other prefers localities to provide the services and collect the taxes, Levin's use of FTA data would suggest that the first state has a higher tax burden. In fact, they are equal.

[...]

Imagine a piano teacher giving lessons to students from his house. Would anyone say that the piano teacher is paying for the lessons, just because the payments were collected in his house? Richard Levin and the FTA apparently would, since they do not understand the difference between tax collections and tax burdens. Collections are a measure of the total amount of money brought in within a given geographic area. Burdens are a measure of the taxes owed by people.

To get a true account of the tax burden borne by residents of Ohio, we must go beyond simply dividing tax collections by population. This is because the person who writes the tax payment check is not necessarily the same person who bears the economic burden of the tax. The Census Bureau understands this and includes the following warning in their State Government Tax Collections in 2009 report, from which the FTA obtained its tax data

[...]

When one includes state and local revenue sources and accounts for tax exporting, as we do in our State-Local Tax Burdens report, Ohio's true tax burden per capita in 2008 stands at 18th nationally, with a tax burden per capita of $4,049, 17 places higher than the FTA ranking used by Levin. Ohioans spend 10.4% of their income on state-local taxes, the 7th highest in the United States, higher than the national average of 9.7%, and drastically higher than the FTA's ranking of 33rd. This is very different from the picture painted by those who wish to portray Ohio as a low-tax state.

Read the rest here. It's eye-opening and helps us all understand the reason Ohio continues to suffer from a mass exodus of businesses and some of the highest unemployment in the Midwest.

Hey everybody! Ohio's 49th!

The American Legislative Exchange Council is out with their new 2010 rankings of Economic Performance and Economic Outlook.

And Ohio got hammered.


For all the gory details, click here.

Lee Fisher isn't as dumb as we thought.

On April 2nd 3BP discussed the latest over-the-top crazy idea from Jennifer Brunner, her out-of-nowhere idea to require a loyalty oath before voting in the May primary.

For obvious reasons, this was panned statewide by everyone without a Brunner bumper sticker on their car. (well, provided Brunner could afford bumper stickers)

The Dispatch, Plain Dealer and even the Akron Beacon Journal came out against the directive, with columnist Dennis Willard going so far as to state:

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner should rescind the directive she issued last Friday to make every voter looking to switch major political party affiliations for the upcoming primary sign a loyalty oath.

Rescinding really isn't strong enough. Brunner should burn the directive on the Statehouse lawn, admit her mistake and apologize.

Subtle, eh?

Well, in the above mentioned post we wondered why exactly Ohio's two top elected leaders, Governor Strickland and Lt. Governor Fisher, hadn't spoken out against the directive. After all, they never had a problem showing disagreement with other statewide officeholders, namely Mary Taylor, when they disagreed with her ideas.

Well, Lee Fisher played it smart. After everyone and their mother had agreed Brunner's idea was absolutely ridiculous, Fisher decided to use her new directive to fire the first major salvo of the Ohio Democratic primary.

In a letter to his supporters he states, "sometimes it's courageous to admit you're wrong and reverse your decision. And that's exactly what the Secretary of State should do in this case. She should allow local elections officials to do what they've always done -- interpret the law in a way that favors the ability of people to exercise their sacred right to vote."

The mention of the word "courage" is a not-so-subtle swipe at Brunner's efforts to co-opt it as the theme of her campaign.

The question now becomes how this attack will be covered by the media. Will they give it enough coverage as to require a substantive response from Brunner? If so, we'll have our first slapfight of the primary. And it's about time, right?

So, now that Fisher has weighed in, there is absolutely no logical reason as to why the elected Governor of Ohio can't weigh in himself.

Go ahead, Governor. We're waiting.

All aboard the Mitch Daniels bandwagon!

I'm almost all the way in the wagon. My toes on my left foot are dragging along the ground in case I need to quickly jump off.

And the only two things holding me back are:

1. His lack of interest in even running (which is a good thing, especially if you ask the Founders).
   
2. Something that can't be helped for quite awhile, time. The 2012 campaign won't really begin until early 2011. A lot can happen.

But with that said, a recent piece in the Atlantic almost forced me to yank that foot up off the ground and go all in. Here's a taste. And I recommend you click here and go read the whole thing.

But if Daniels ever changed his mind about running--or if persuasive citizens convince him to do so--he would possess a quality most of his potential 2012 GOP opponents lack: a substantive record that can directly challenge Barack Obama's vulnerabilities and make him a formidable challenger. And that is why his potential as a serious GOP presidential candidate, despite his repeated utterances and reassurances that he does not want to seek that office, should never be underestimated.

To voters concerned about America's growing budget deficit, Daniels can tell them that he inherited a deficit and is now one of the few governors presiding over a budget surplus. He is, after all, referred to as "the Blade."

For the Hoosiers who want a government that is lean but user friendly and efficient, he can tell them that he even increased the approval ratings of Indiana's DMV by making it more efficient.

To voters concerned about health care, he can tell them that he insured Hoosiers who weren't poor enough to qualify for government assistance and not wealthy enough to purchase private insurance with his Healthy Indiana program, which utilized personal health savings accounts in a way that promoted personal responsibility and was consistent with free market principles while providing a safety net for catastrophic medical emergencies. And his plan was fully paid for by raising cigarette taxes and reallocating some of the states Medicaid funds, for which Indiana had to get approval.

For those who want a bipartisan consensus builder, Daniels can tell them that he won reelection by winning Indiana's independent voters and over-performing among young voters, Democrats, and minorities even in an election year when Obama surprisingly won Indiana.

Mitch Daniels. He's dreamy.

If you want to join the Mitch Daniels fan page on Facebook, click here.

Troopergate hits home.

Ohio Governor Strickland's home base is Southeast Ohio.

He was born and lived there. He represented the region in Congress.

And now one of the major papers in the Governor's home region thinks some members of his Administration may need to go to jail.

From the Marietta Times:

Lawmakers are investigating [the sting at the mansion] and other situations in which political considerations appear to have conflicted with the highway patrol's law enforcement duties. In the governor's home case, there has been testimony that the reason for canceling the sting was to avoid embarrassment for Strickland. It needs to be noted that there is no evidence the governor himself had knowledge of the incident.

After hearing about the fiasco, state Sen. Timothy Grendell, R-Chesterland, remarked that testimony made it clear ''that politics have taken precedence over public safety.'' We agree that there are strong indications of just that happening.

Lawmakers should continue their investigation. If it is found that criminal investigations were influenced improperly by members of Strickland's administration, charges should be brought against them.

Cue the ominous mystery theater music.

"...charges should be brought against them." Those are big words.

No matter how you slice it, this kind of publicity is a net negative for Ted Strickland. And when newspapers in your base region start pounding you, it hurts.

In 2006, Strickland won Washington County, where Marietta is the county seat, with 66% of the vote. That margin was reflected throughout many of the surrounding counties where the Marietta Times maintains circulation. Without a doubt, negative coverage can impact that vote margin. That doesn't necessarily mean Kasich will win a plurality of those voters, but a scandal-plagued Governor's office has a tendency to depress his supporters and make it more difficult to motivate them to the polls.

Strickland needs Troopergate to go away. And fast.

Gauging Social Media Enthusiasm, part 2

Back in January I reviewed where both John Kasich and Governor Ted Strickland stood when it comes to engagement in social/direct media. Well, now is as good a time as any to do an update on their numbers.

It's hard to oversell the importance of social media in modern politics. Cutting out the middle man and interacting directly with the voters is a new mainstay in campaigns. Not only are candidates engaging more supporters directly, but that engagement encourages more involvement, and that involvement can snowball into an avalanche of grassroots support.

So, of the two candidates for Ohio Governor, who is inspiring more enthusiasm?

It's simple to determine, really. Gauge the two most popular forms of social media.

Who has more twitter followers, and how fast are they increasing?

And who has more fans on facebook?

We'll start with Twitter.

In January, Ted Strickland had 2,807 followers. As of last night, Ted's total had increased by 449 to 3,256.

What about Kasich? During our last measurement, Kasich had 9,772 followers. Now? 10,821. That's an increase of 1,049 people, or, more than double Strickland's rate of increase.

What about Facebook? "Fan pages" are popular for politicians and fantastic tools to communicate everything from phone bank hours to the latest press release. In January, Strickland's fan page had 8,168 fans. Since then it has jumped by 839 people to 9,007. In comparison, during our last update Kasich's fan page had 12,457 people. And now? 17,231. An increase of 4,774 people. That's more than five and a half times the rate of increase Strickland has experienced.

These dominating totals and, most importantly, rates of increase, say just as much about enthusiasm for Kasich's campaign as it does for the quality of Kasich's social media efforts. The better the social media outreach, the more committed your network of grassroots support becomes, the better your fundraising, and the easier it is to directly communicate your message to the masses.

And Kasich is clearly winning.

Strickland's real-world revenue shortage.

At this point in 2009, the nation was already 16 months into the recession.

In those 16 months, the Buckeye state saw the number of employed Ohioans drop by 218,000.

But according to the latest tax revenue numbers, things were far better last March than they are now.

From the Dispatch:

Tax receipts for the 2010 fiscal year continue to run more than $1 billion less than actual tax receipts during the same period for the 2009 fiscal year, the draft report shows.

And to think, Ted Strickland says we're in the middle of our economic recovery.

And what's his plan to fix Ohio's tax revenue problem? Beg for more cash from the federal government.

It's a joke that Strickland and his lackeys have attempted to smear Kasich for cuts he hasn't even suggested yet when in real life, Ohio is facing a real world tax revenue crisis that the governor refuses to address.

Gotta love Rudy.

If you have the time, make sure you watch this five minute clip in its entirety.

The topic is supposed to be Marco Rubio, and Rudy Giuliani appears as a guest to give his take on why he believes Rubio to be the superior candidate in the race. In a shameful display, Arianna Huffington's attempts to minimize America's Mayor based on irrelevant and personal attacks. It's a classic case of hypocrisy from a left-wing talking head, and Giuliani absolutely rips it apart.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Taking Strickland's Department of Development to task

With story after story of failures within the Governor's Ohio Department of Development (ODOD) to proactively engage with Ohio companies looking to relocate out of Ohio, one State Representative has had enough.

If you'll recall a story from a couple days ago, it seems T-Mobile has found the cost of doing business with TeleTech in Ohio to be too high, so 585 workers in Lorain County are being laid off.

At this time, there is no indication that Ted Strickland or the ODOD reached out to T-Mobile or TeleTech or provided them a package to provide them an incentive to stay in Lorain County.

Now it's possible that there are other reasons beyond cost for T-Mobile's desire to pick up and leave. But, if ODOD was on top of the situation, they'll have records of those reasons.

And that's where State Representative Terry Boose comes into play.

In a letter to Governor Strickland, Rep. Boose stated, “Governor, what have you done to make sure these positions were fought for? Unemployment in Lorain County is currently at 11.5 percent, and the closure of TeleTech delivers a severe blow to the families of Lorain County and Northern Ohio. This company has been significant within our community, and the loss of yet another corporation from Ohio’s borders is very problematic. How many businesses need to abandon our state before we provide them with adequate reason to stay?”

In a letter to Lisa Patt-McDaniel, director of the Ohio Department of Development (ODOD), Rep. Boose requested the following: “In consideration of Ohio’s rampant job loss, I respectfully ask that you present to me the following information:

1. The date on which ODOD first learned that TeleTech Holdings, Inc. was looking to relocate;
2. The date on which ODOD first proactively reached out to TeleTech Holdings, Inc.; and,
3. The specific incentives that were included in the package to TeleTech Holdings, Inc.”

It's the letter to Patt-McDaniel that particularly caught my attention. That's what you call holding the feet to the fire.

Provided ODOD properly responds to Boose's request, we'll know whether Strickland's team was on top of the situation and the T-Mobile departure was out of their control, or if this will turn out to be yet another in a long line of Strickland's failures to retain businesses in Ohio.

What long line of failures? This long line of failures.


[click to enlarge]

Strickland's Department of Public Safety just can't stay out of trouble.

If it's not one thing, it's another.

This time it's a failure to develop guidelines on handling allegations of criminal conduct raised by state agencies.

After the State Highway Patrol failed to investigate a case of "obvious" criminal fraud involving a state contractor, Charles' investigation released Jan. 14 called for development of a policy on how to handle the referral of criminal complaints by state agencies.

[...]

In her response to Charles' latest report dated Friday, Collins-Taylor said the policy still is being developed. (The Dispatch requested the department's response Friday, but did not receive it until late this afternoon.)

First off, this policy should read pretty simply. In fact, I took a couple months to develop my own draft. Here it is:

1. Call the Patrol.
2. Stay out of their way.

Second, you'd think Collins-Taylor, with her job on the line, would pay a little more attention to important issues like this one. Why ignore the Inspector General? Apparently Strickland's "kick the can" way of doing things has caught on with his cabinet.

Finally, is it really a good idea to ignore the Dispatch? Seriously?

In other Public Safety news, I'd like to welcome the Cleveland Plain Dealer to the party. Glad to see you guys figured out just how important Troopergate has become.

Redfern is grasping for more straws than a 4-year old at a Wendy's.

This is what the Chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party is supposed to do when his Party's incumbent Governor has absolutely no record to run on.....

Make crap up and say silly stuff that will fill up space in newspapers.

Well, it worked! Congrats, Chris.

Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern predicted today that Republican gubernatorial candidate John Kasich will be hurt in the general election by his former affiliation with Fox News.

[...]

With its array of conservative commentators, Fox often is villified by Democrats, and Redfern predicted that could work against Kasich in the general election against Gov. Ted Strickland.

"It motivates our base," Redfern said. "It energizes Democrats...and is a reminder of what this election is about."

Now, just for giggles, let's pretend Redfern is so obtuse as to believe what he's shoveling to the press.

Why? Because ratings show Ted Strickland is doomed if it's all about turnout by news channel.

Just ask the liberal Huffington Post:

As I'm sure you have all read, the first quarter 2010 ratings are a major disaster for CNN, and an ordinary disaster for MSNBC and Headline News. CNN lost 39% of its viewers from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010. Headline was down only 24%, and MSNBC only 15%. Meanwhile, Fox gained 3%.

The total day numbers were little better, with CNN down 31%, MSNBC down 16% and Headline News down 9%. Once again Fox grew, this time by 8%.

The best I can do about making a bright side of this for Democrats in the 2010 elections is that if we were to regard all Fox viewers as Republican voters, and all MSNBC, CNN and HLN viewers as Democratic voters, than at this moment the Republicans have a 53%-47% lead over Democrats nationally.

You think the base will rise up in anger against Kasich because of his involvement with Fox, Chris? Well, what do you think our majority will do when you help remind Ohioans that their very own Fox News personality is on the ballot?

Chris Redfern never fails to amaze at his total and complete lack of depth.

Fortunately, the Kasich campaign is right there on-message to remind voters that this is race is a referendum on the past four years:

"Ted Strickland is desperate to divert attention away from his record of trashing Ohio’s economy and blowing an $8 billion hole in the budget and frankly we’re not going to let him do it. After promising to turnaround Ohio, he needs to apologize to the 426,300 out-of-work Ohioans who have suffered because of his mistakes.”

Ka-blammo.

The Tea Party - Reflecting America

Tea Partiers reflect America. Just ask Gallup.

Though as Ace says, "if a poll falls in a forest without reinforcing The Narrative, will anyone hear it?"


And yet, this surely won't stop Ohio congressmen like Tim Ryan and Zack Space from using sexually charged insults in floor speeches and official press releases.

Keep at it, Dems. Each time you attack the Tea Party movement, you dig your hole that much deeper.

Seriously?

You're supposed to be an athlete, for pete's sake.

Tonight....

I'm guessing about 99% of people watching the national championship game tonight will be cheering for these guys over Duke...


....the other 1% don't have souls.

Class warfare insults the intelligence of Ohioans.

For months, the Ohio Democratic Party tried to portray Kasich with such ridiculous identifiers as this one:

"...Making tens of millions of dollars as Managing Director at Lehman Brothers..."

But now even after learning Kasich made, at best, 1/17th that $10M number at Lehman, Democrats still want to wage class warfare with their most recent attack on the gubernatorial hopeful.


But is that such a good idea?

After all, two Democratic Senators who served Ohio honorably(though with awful ideas), John Glenn and Howard Metzenbaum, were worth at least $13,000,000 back in 1992.

Or there's President Obama. His 2008 returns showed him with a net worth of approximately $3,700,000.

How about the woman Governor Strickland endorsed for President? She was estimated to be worth $21.5 million in 2008.

And then there's Ohio's own Democratic Congressman Charlie Wilson. He's estimated to be worth somewhere between $6 and $7 million. That's at least six times what Kasich made in 2008.

I guess I shouldn't hold my breath on any press releases from the Ohio Dems showing how Wilson makes 141 times what "ordinary" Ohioans make, eh?

Does hypocrisy get anymore blatant?

And now that Kasich has now unveiled his tax records, the question now becomes whether Governor Strickland lives up to his pledge to release his medical records.

But at the end of the day, every American should have the right to be as successful as Kasich, Metzenbaum, or Wilson. There's nothing wrong with utilizing your skills to provide for your family.

While Kasich didn't make as much as many Democrats, he still made a comfortable income that helped provide for his family. And good for him.

And I'm sure every Ohioan wishes the state's economy made these kinds of personal successes a little less rare.

At the end of the day, Kasich's tax return proved two things; 1) Kasich did not make enough money at Lehman Brothers to be considered anywhere close to the level where decisions were made to put Lehman out of business, and 2) Kasich did not profit off of Lehman's failure.

Seeing as the Democrats first line of attack after learning of the tax return was to go after him on his income, rather than being in any way responsible for Lehman's failures(as had been inferred for months), it's clear even the ODP knows that talking point is dead.

But this latest tactic does make me wonder one thing, when will Kasich's elementary school grades turn into an ODP press release?

Obama is really good at foreign diplomacy.***

President Obama is losing control:

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has slammed Western backers for the second time in a week, accusing the United States of interference, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

In a private meeting with up to 70 Afghan lawmakers Saturday, Karzai also warned that the Taliban insurgency could become a legitimate resistance movement if foreign meddling in Afghan affairs continues, the Journal said, citing participants in the talks.

During the talks, Karzai, whose government is supported by billions of dollars of Western aid and 126,000 foreign troops fighting the Taliban, said he would be compelled to join the insurgency himself if the parliament does not back his bid to take over Afghanistan's electoral watchdog.

*** - This is lie.

Christina Romer is a liar.

President Obama's Chairwoman of his Council of Economic Advisers stood in front of the nation on Sunday and straight up lied.

The federal stimulus act has performed "exactly" as the Obama administration expected it to, Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer said Sunday.

Republicans renewed their criticism of the stimulus in the aftermath of the March jobs report that showed the unemployment rate stuck at 9.7 percent. But the White House and Democrats and Congress have touted the 162,000 jobs created last month as a sign that their policies are working to spark a recovery.

"I think it has done exactly what we would say it would do," she said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Except the primary graph the Obama Administration used to sell the stimulus was the one seen below. Fortunately, Innocent Bystanders has done a good job keeping them to task on what the reality really is:

And just like that, Ohio loses 1,100 more jobs....

President Obama is a one-man wrecking crew.

Just like his visits seemed to help lose elections in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts, the President's January trip to Lorain County Community College to promote his jobs agenda seems to have backfired.

A Colorado operator of customer call centers for other companies is laying off 585 workers at one such center in northern Ohio.

TeleTech Holdings Inc. of Englewood, Colo., said that the sole client of the call center in Lorain County has decided it no longer wants the services.

Is there anything we can do to make sure the President doesn't come back?

Additionally, southeast Ohio also lost more than 500 jobs over the weekend.

Bigg's grocery stores plan to cut 436 jobs in southwestern Ohio and 111 in northern Kentucky as part of planned closings and sell-offs in the region.

The chain, owned by Minneapolis-based Supervalu Inc., filed notice after the regional chain Remke Markets, based in Erlanger, Ky., announced this week that it would acquire six Bigg's stores in Cincinnati and its suburbs.

Bigg's will close five others and eliminate 79 jobs from its offices in the Cincinnati suburb of Milford.

Governor Strickland has repeatedly claimed Ohio has begun its economic recovery. (DJ note: Ya think the Dispatch is regretting running with the Governor's suggested headline in that article?)

I'm pretty sure the families of these 1,100 workers would disagree with the Governor's assessment.

The best of "Ohio Democratic Party Books"...

Despite Kasich's 2nd book, Stand for Something, being published a full 2 years prior, Strickland spokeswoman Lis Smith still took to Twitter to mock the book royalties it made two years after its release.


Nevermind both of Kasich's books landed on the New York Times bestseller list, right?

But enough of the facts. Let's get to the fun.

In response to a friend's question on Twitter asking how many NYT bestsellers Ohio Democrats had written, I proposed the idea that my twitter followers, or Tweeps, come up with some of their own proposed titles for books written by Ohio Democrats.

Well, that idea sorta exploded.

Here are my faves:

How to Double Unemployment in Three Short Years, by Ted Strickland
"Office Etiquette", by Marc Dann
"Fundraising for Dummies", by Jennifer Brunner
"No Shirt, No Sense, No Problem" by Lee Fisher
"What She Said", by Lee Fisher
"How to Tweet Like a 14-Year Old Girl", by Chris Redfern
"Alienating Tomorrow's Leaders" by Armond Budish
"Dog The Voter Bounty Hunter" by Susan Gwinn
"Really Good Movies about Pot" - Strickland's Director of the Ohio Film Office (see: http://ow.ly/1u9lY)
"City Budgeting for Dummies", by Dennis Kucinich
"101 things to see on the drive into my district" by Paula Brooks
"I Voted For It Before I Voted Against It, a lesson in winning elections" by Zack Space w/forward by J. Kerry
"Hey Dude, Where's My District?", by Paula Brooks
"How to Live on Food Stamps" by Jennifer Brunner's campaign staff
"Jello-Lust" by Ted Strickland
"The Legend of Begger Vance" by Ted Strickland
"War and Peace" (extended and revised version for 3-C Rail Travel), by Ted Strickland
"Where in the world am I" by Yvette McGee Brown
"How to Win Friends and Influence Troopers" by Kent Markus & Cathy Collins-Taylor
"The bank of mom and dad" by David Pepper
"Superfudge: The tale of Ohio's Budget" by Pari Sabety

Hilarious stuff.

A special thanks goes out to the ODP and all Ohio Dem officeholders and candidates for providing us with an obscene amount of material.

RIP Chief Justice Moyer

This Ohioan in Virginia thanks you for your years of service.


Rest in Peace.

For the weekend...

Who doesn't love a little Zach Galifianakis lip syncing Fiona Apple?



Have a safe, fun, and obnoxiously sunny weekend, everyone.

So now that Brunner has lost her mind....

Watching the fall of Jennifer Brunner as of late has been fascinating. From the poll results to the lashing out at the Ohio Democratic Party and Lee Fisher to the baffling awful new election directive, Brunner has fallen apart in front of our very eyes.

What was once the next bright star of the Ohio Democratic Party is now a train wreck that has just become painful to watch.

I actually held off on discussing that new election directive until I had a chance to review all the coverage it garnered. After all, it's the mainstream media coverage that changes public opinion, not political blogs.

And boy did that coverage not fail to disappoint.

The Columbus Dispatch, Cleveland Plain Dealer, and even the Akron Beacon Journal came out harshly against Brunner's directive that would automatically challenge any voter wishing to change parties in the May 2010 primary election.

Of course, my favorite was Dennis Willard's commentary where he stated:

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner should rescind the directive she issued last Friday to make every voter looking to switch major political party affiliations for the upcoming primary sign a loyalty oath.

Rescinding really isn't strong enough. Brunner should burn the directive on the Statehouse lawn, admit her mistake and apologize.

So while Republicans and the media en masse have harshly criticized Brunner for her decision, there has been a few folks conspicuously absent from offering any opinion whatsoever.

The elected leaders of the State. Governor Strickland and Lieutenant Governor Fisher.

Both haven't hesitated in the past to comment or criticize other statewide officeholders. Just ask Mary Taylor what they thought of her analysis showing the massive upcoming budget deficit.

So what is stopping them now from criticizing such an incredibly inane directive designed only to appease Brunner's progressive fringe?

Politics. Again. Per usual.

Governor Strickland and Lieutenant Governor Fisher, do what the people of Ohio elected you to do. Take a stand on behalf of Ohioans against a directive that will impede their ability to exercise their right to vote.

I hope Cathy Collins-Taylor has her resume updated.

The Columbus Dispatch wrote an editorial a few days ago that hit on an important aspect of the Troopergate scandal currently facing Governor Strickland.

Since Strickland failed to do his constitutional duty and send his appointees in front of the State Senate for approval, he has put his Public Safety appointee, Cathy Collins-Taylor, the woman with the ability to break the scandal wide open, in a precarious position.

If the governor's office had followed confirmation procedure on Collins-Taylor's appointment, by now the state senators might have concerns about her performance, but her position wouldn't be at risk. There are important questions about how and why this sting operation was canceled, and senators should ask them during the upcoming confirmation hearings.

Since the Governor's Chief Counsel, Kent Markus, did his communicating on the phone, with texts only telling us calls were made, and since the Patrol's entire strategy changed after the calls, Collins-Taylor is going to be obligated to detail those discussions to a level satisfactory to the Senate if she wants any hope of being confirmed. Of course, Collins-Taylor will be under major pressure to only give up the most minimal bits of information in order to appease the press and not throw anyone under the bus. But I'd find it hard to believe the Senate will take too kindly to such obvious politization of the process.

In the meantime we have to wait and see about a few other things. Specifically, whether the Administration will hand over documents to the IG regarding the situation at 770 Broad Street or if the IG must go to court to obtain them. If the Governor's office tries to protect their files, we'll have yet another indication of wrongdoing on the 30th floor, something that will surely gain attention from the media.

Additionally, it's my understanding that next Troopergate hearings will reconvene on or around April 15th. Chairman Grendell has so far done a fantastic job of working to get to the bottom of an issue that's very important to the law enforcement community and to the very fabric of state government - specifically, the abuse of elected office to manipulate criminal investigations.

One thing is clear, the longer this drags on, the worse it will end up for Governor Strickland.

Breaking it Down: The 4/1 Rasmussen Ohio Governor's Poll

Don't ever say 3BP ignores the bad polls and just talks about the good ones. Only cowards do that.

So here we are, with a Rasmussen Poll showing John Kasich's smallest lead yet, a statistically insignificant 1 point margin - 46-45.

I guess my supposition about the poll trends from yesterday was more accurate than I expected:

Yes, November is a long ways away. I'm sure we'll see these lines cross back and forth across eachother a few times. After all, it is Ohio.

While these lines have yet to cross (Kasich still has a slight edge in the RCP Poll average), the gap has clearly narrowed.

But as I said even last month when Kasich was up 11, it's not the head-to-head numbers that matter this far out.

The fact is, the most important question being asked of the voters right now is not which candidate they support, it's this: "do you approve or disapprove of the job Ted Strickland is doing as Governor?" Why is it so important? Because of what virtually any serious political scientist will tell you - elections that include an incumbent are first and foremost a referendum on that incumbent.

So, with a 10-point gain, you'd imagine Ted saw quite an improvement in his job approval numbers, right?

Not so much.


The key finding? Overall, Ted is still consistently underwater, 47-52, just as he has been going all the way back to December.

Other than the January outlier, disapproval among Independents hasn't shown any marked change and disapproval among his own base has only marginally improved.

Meanwhile, there has also been no statistically significant change in the overall Kasich approval numbers. But among the Indies, Kasich's numbers dropped down from where they stood last month to 46-26. Still, that's better than the 44-32 Kasich was earning from them two months ago in February.

So what deserves credit for Strickland's surge? Well it wasn't the Democrats. Strickland's margin within his own Party went from +68% last month up just 2 points to +70%. Instead it was Independents. The +9 margin in favor of Kasich among that subgroup was far smaller than any Rasmussen poll going back to December.

Of course, according to the 2008 CNN Exit Poll, Obama won Independents by just 8 points in Ohio, so maybe +9 for Kasich isn't so bad.

Additionally, Strickland has seen his Gubernatorial Approval Index(to steal a term from Rasmussen with his Presidential version), shrink from -12 to -5, with just 15% strongly approving and 20% strongly disapproving.

But comparitive to the President's 31% strong approval and 41% strong disapproval, Strickland clearly doesn't gin up the same kind of enthusiasm and dedication that makes one think much of his support is firm.

So what does this poll mean for Kasich in the long run? Nothing. However, if we see a trend of polls showing some firming up of these numbers over an extended period of time, the Kasich team may decide to pull the trigger and launch the first ads of the season in an effort to properly introduce him to the electorate and take advantage of Strickland's perpetually bad job approval rating. But for now Kasich's campaign should keep doing what they're doing and allow Strickland to wallow in his underwater job approval rating.

Stay tuned.

The Architect and the Tea Party

It's hard to get much more "establishment" than Karl Rove.

It's also hard to find someone so amazingly good at winning.

And that's why Tea Partiers should embrace the advice he provides in a great column on his website.

First, Rove recommends five committments each Tea Party member should make to enrich the nation and expand the Tea Party's influence.

He then goes on to state:

Politicians who hope to appeal to tea partiers must offer solutions that are heartfelt and well thought out. Tea party members may be new to politics, but they have a keen instinct for what's authentic. Attempts to pander will fall flat.

The tea party movement must also distance itself from the "birthers" who insist Mr. Obama wasn't born in the U.S., the 9/11 deniers, and other conspiracy fans who make wild comments the media will seize on to undermine the movement's credibility.

The unhinged quality of the White House and the DNC attacks show that they understand how much the tea party movement can affect this year's elections. Now is the time for the movement to ensure its energy—and influence—stay high.

It's truly possible for the Republican Party and Tea Party to work together for mutual gain. This is a good step forward.

BREAKING: Ted is an idiot.

Yesterday, Governor Strickland attempted to make the claim that Ohio's tax burden was lower than its neighbors based on an analysis from the Federation of Tax Administrators that used data collected by the U.S. Census.

His Department of Taxation's press release stated:


Except it seems these Tax Administrators, and in turn, the Governor, failed to read the all-important fine print of the U.S. Census study.

Get ready for this, it's a doozy.

Page 3 of the study reads:

The Census itself states that using their study as a way to interpret tax burden is misleading.

There is spin, there is twisting of the facts, and then there is this....Strickland outright misleading the public.

Unfortunately, Ohio's media outlets bought what the Governor was selling in stories many of them ran yesterday and today.

The reality is this, Ohio's tax burden is one of the highest in the country. Read the details here.

The FTA, Governor Strickland, and his Department of Taxation owe an apology and a retraction.

UPDATE: Americans for Tax Reform is out with their own thoughts on Strickland's outrageous claim. Check it out.

The RGA throws down the hammer.

“All they have to do is ask Jon Corzine or Creigh Deeds what happens when we engage in a race.” - Nick Ayers, RGA Executive Director

And engage the RGA will.

Strickland's communications director, Lis Smith, who somehow found a way for Democrat to lose New Jersey by serving in the same role for Jon Corzine, knows all too well what happens when the Republican Governors Association gets involved.

After their most recent report, the RGA has nearly a full 1/3 more cash-on-hand than their Democratic counterparts. A portion of their $31.2 million will most assuredly be seen in Ohio in the race between Kasich and Strickland.

This Democrat is an idiot.

There are idiots on both sides of the aisle.

But this Democratic congressman from Georgia takes the cake.



I have no idea how the Admiral kept a straight face.

2010 just got a whole lot tougher for Democrats.

The mountain facing Democrats in this political environment was difficult enough as it was.

And now they have Ohio's Jo Ann Davidson coming after them. And Mike Duncan. And Ed Gillespie. And Karl Rove.

As troubles at the Republican National Committee continue, a group of former Republican officials are starting an outside political group that could compete with the RNC for wealthy donors and prominence.

The group, American Crossroads, hopes to raise $52 million from wealthy Republicans and corporations, according to officials involved with the organization. The goal is to mount an independent campaign to help Republican candidates win in the November elections.

The importance of this development is hard to understate.

This isn't just some flash in the pan outside Independent group. This is an organization run by some of the brightest and well connected GOP minds in the business.

Of course, Democrats will cry foul and complain about the GOP tainting the process with big dollars.

Fine. Go cry to your labor unions and George Soros.

Bill Johnson's first ad...

Charlie Wilson's opponent, Bill Johnson, has put together his first TV ad. Clearly, Johnson's motivation in this ad is to nationalize the election and make this a race against Pelosi just as much as it is against Wilson.

Smart.



Notice the inclusion of the Tea Party? Republicans are smartly running towards them, not away.

The Amalgamation

While my readers know I love poring through a poll of the big races in Ohio, they also should know that each poll is simply a snapshot in time, and as we learned yesterday, each and every poll can't necessarily be trusted at face value.

Because of this a true understanding of the full state of the race can only be done by studying an amalgamation of all polls, no matter the source or sample.

Pollster.com does a good job of combining the data into an easy to read graph.

So, where does Ohio's gubernatorial race stand today?


Kasich is up by nearly four.

And Portman's Senate race versus Fisher?


Portman is up by 2.

Yes, November is a long ways away. I'm sure we'll see these lines cross back and forth across eachother a few times. After all, it is Ohio.