Thursday, May 3, 2012

New Quinnipiac Poll Foreshadows Trouble For Obama In Ohio, Other Swing States

Quinnipiac is out again with its Swing State Poll.  And while today, the poll has Obama leading in the key states of Ohio, and Pennsylvania (Romney has the advantage in Florida), the numbers do not bode well for a President whose policies have the nation staring down the barrel of a massive debt crisis.
Currently, if the election were held today, Quinnipiac has the numbers as follows:
  • Florida: 44% Romney, 43% Obama
  • Pennsylvania: 39% Romney, 47% Obama
  • Ohio: 42% Romney, 44% Obama
So, that puts Obama in the lead in two of these critical swing states for an electoral advantage of 38 to 29, as of today.  But oh, what a difference just a few short months can make.
In political polling, it’s generally accepted that if a sitting office holder isn’t over 50% early on, they’re going to have some struggles.  Reason being, they don’t have half of the electorate already backing them, and it’s going to be tough for an incumbent to move even a few percentage points.
When you’re an incumbent, the voters already know your record—and in Obama’s case, it’s not something to brag about.  Heck, he can’t even get America’s most liberal senator to back him.
But let’s not focus on the political grandiosity and take a look at the numbers.  From the same time period just two years ago, here’s what the political landscape looked like:
  • In Florida, Quinnipiac had then-Governor Charlie Crist beating Republican up-and-comer Marco Rubio by 37% - 33% in a three-way race for U.S. Senate.
  • In Pennsylvania, they had then-Senator Arlen Specter with a 47% - 39% lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.
  • And in Ohio, then-Governor Ted Strickland led Republican John Kasich by a margin of 44% - 38%, and Lee Fisher had a 40% - 37% lead over Rob Portman for U.S. Senate.
Of course, we all know what happened in those races.  Rubio beat Crist in that three-way race by an astounding 49% - 30%, Specter was upset by Sestak 54% - 46%.  And we all know about the Ohio results.
Kasich bested Strickland 49% - 47% and Portman stomped Fisher with a 57% - 39% drubbing.  All of this, even after each of the eventual victors was down as late as May 2010.
If history has anything to say about it, Obama’s reelection chances are dwindling more and more each day.  But even if you’re not a fan of history repeating itself, the numbers out of the Quinnipiac poll today show just how much Obama struggles against Romney, and on multiple fronts.
Who do you think would do a better job on the economy?  In Florida, that’s 49% - 40% in favor of Romney.  It’s a 47% - 43% Romney advantage in Ohio.  Obama’s only lead comes in Pennsylvania with a slim 44% - 43% lead.
How about whether Obama’s signature piece of legislation—the healthcare reform law—should be repealed?  Obama loses that argument by margins ranging from 4% to 15% in every state.
The situation gets even worse when you drill down into the numbers.  As could be expected, Obama leads self-described Democrats in all three states, but he’s losing the all-important Independent vote by a margin of 41% - 38% in Florida, and 43% - 38% in the Buckeye State. 
His only lead comes in Pennsylvania (45% - 36%), where many in the Keystone State are still getting to know Romney after their native son, Rick Santorum, bowed out of the race.  So those numbers are bound to improve over the coming months.
And to add insult to injury, Republicans are way more excited that Democrats to vote in the 2012 elections as compared to past presidential elections, with GOP advantages in that category ranging from 10% to 22%.
To put it plainly, Obama cannot win reelection by alienating those in the middle, and he’s already behind the GOP frontrunner, who, after a drawn out primary, hasn’t even ramped up his general election campaign.
Obama might be ahead today, but the numbers and enthusiasm gap are certainly not on his side for that lead to still be there come November.
Add history in to the mix, and America’s self-proclaimed fourth best president ever could be headed toward that “one-term proposition.”  
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  1. Awesome to see GOHP blog on 3BP. Two great blogs coordinating to dominate Ohio.

  2. Here's hoping that there will be a huge GOP turnout in rural OH to overshadow the higher population in Cleve/Columbus/Cincy who vote Dem. Not only for the POTUS vote but for OH Senate vote as well--must get BHO/Brown out of town!!!

  3. BHO's not worried about winning OH--why else would he be "using" Sherrod Brown to kick off his campaign:

    Here's hoping that both BHO/SB's careers are over in November!!!

    NOBAMA2012/NO Sherrod Brown 2012

  4. Yes, Obama's numbers against Romney in Ohio are better than they were against McCain at this point in 2008. Clearly, he's doomed.

    Also, Nate Silver put the 50% myth to rest a long time ago. But then again, you're the same blog that kept saying how the polls showed Issue 2 was going to win.

  5. Apparently winning in 2 of 3 states equals trouble for Obama


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