Breaking it Down: The 11/12 Quinnipiac OH Senate Poll

There are three takeaways from Quinnipiac's latest poll:

1. Brunner is toast.
2. The Senate race swung 14 points, giving Portman a slim lead vs. likely opponent Lee Fisher.
3. Obama's approval rating swung in the negative by 16 points.
   

Let's start with the Democratic Primary.

Among Democrats and with 51% still undecided, Fisher leads Brunner by only 2 points. While some Brunner supporters will see this as a sign of improvement since the last poll which showed her down 9, they shouldn't get too excited. Yes, the September poll had Fisher further ahead, but it seems to be an outlier relative to other previous four polls which showed Fisher up by between the usual 2-4 points. On top of it, Brunner only leads among women against Fisher by a surprising two points. In the general versus Portman? She only leads by three among women. Wow.

End story? Brunner continues to slightly trail Fisher. This means she's toast.

Why? Money. As of the end of the 3rd quarter, Brunner only had $112,000 cash-on-hand. Fisher had almost 16 times that - $1.6 million. Unless dogs are better fundraisers than I think, Brunner has little to no shot of competing with Fisher's advertising advantage. Unless the pro-women liberal PAC Emily's List decides to get involved, which would be a dumb idea on their part, Brunner will have extremely limited exposure on television. With 51% of Democrat voters undecided, that's ridiculously bad news for Brunner.

As for the Republican(s)...

Portman leads businessman Tom Ganley with 26% of the GOP vote to 7%. This is pretty much unchanged from any of the previous polls. As I'll discuss in a later post, Ganley is up already with a very limited ad buy on TV. It begins now - if he can't make up some serious ground by late winter, he should cut his losses and avoid wasting any of his personal fortune against the supremely qualified Rob Portman.

Now, onto the General Election.

With Brunner and Ganley a virtual impossibility as their Party's nominee, I'll focus on Portman vs. Fisher.

Currently, Portman is up three. That's not too impressive until you consider the swing in momentum. In February, Fisher was up 15 on Portman. Just two months ago, he was up 11. And now, Portman storms to the lead. That's a 14 point swing in just two months in favor of the Republican.

What about favorability numbers?

This is where it gets interesting to me. The Quinnipiac Poll asked whether voters approved of the way Fisher is handling his job as Lt. Governor. Now, considering the extremely poor marks Ted Strickland received in yesterday's Quinnipiac Poll, you'd assume that some of this negativity would rub off on Fisher, particularly with the direct mention of his title of Lt. Governor, right?

Wrong.

Fisher's approval rating as Lt. Governor is at 39% approve vs. 23% disapprove. Only 8% of Democrats disapprove, indicating no one in the base is upset with him. And Independents approve by an 18 point margin. Incredible.

Incredible that no one is paying attention.

This is where the good news really starts for the Portman campaign. Despite these approval numbers, Portman still has a three point lead. Now consider the money situation.

In all likelihood, Ganley will drop out before Portman has to spend much of his money in a primary fight. On the other hand, Brunner seems committed to sticking it out through the primary, thereby ensuring Fisher's need to spend his $1.6 million plus on television.

Well, Portman currently has $5.1 million cash-on-hand. That's already a sizable advantage on the Democrat, and one that shows every sign of increasing. This money advantage is the tool needed to define Fisher's record - not only as the Lt. Governor in a failed Administration, but also as the Director of Development. Portman will show Ohioans that under Fisher's direct leadership, Ohio's economic development effort was a massive failure, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. Point being, if Fisher stands any shot at winning, it will require a massive influx of cash from Washington.

Now, what about Obama?

Ohhhhh how I loved seeing this number in the press release this morning.

45% approve.
50% disapprove.

That's a 16 point swing from his 53-42 number in September. My, how times change.

Numbers for how he's handling the economy are even worse.

42% approve.
53% disapprove.

Among the all-important Indies, that number worsens to 39-54.

And even worse...health care.

36% approve.
57% disapprove.

Among Indies, yep...even worse - 34-62.

The biggest swing was on the 'who do you trust - Obama or the Republicans' question.

We're tied. The funny part? Just two months ago Obama was up 21.

Zach Space, Mary Jo Kilroy, Steve Driehaus, are you listening? Too bad you didn't have these numbers last week, eh?

=========

In summary, a year out and it's all good news for Ohio Republicans.

But remember, it's just that - a year out.

There's still much to do. Money to be raised. And volunteers to be corralled.

Let's get to work.

Governor Throws Hands in Air & Gives Up, Begs Federal Government to Fight Ohio's Bedbugs

This morning I thought the Coshocton Tribune got mixed up with the Onion.

It's really come to this, Governor? You can't even fight bedbugs without help from the Federal government?

Now, to be fair, it does seem like Ohio is justified in asking for an exemption to use a more powerful poison to combat bed bugs, but come on....after the year Ted Strickland has had, how can I not pile on a weeee bit more?

Breaking it Down: The 11/11 Quinnipiac OH Gov Poll

Enthusiasm.

That's what the latest Ohio Governor Quinnipiac Poll is about.

Are voters enthused about the state of the state and the Governor himself?

This analysis is a bit on the long side, but stay with me - there's a lot of interesting information that gives some great hints on where this race stands.

Let's start at the beginning.

• Kasich and Strickland are tied at 40 percent each.

So, just looking at the first question of whom Ohioans prefer, what do we learn?

This tie is a ten point swing in Kasich's favor from just two months ago. I'll take that trend any day.

Independents continue to support Kasich, but not quite by the margin we saw in New Jersey for Christie. With that said, when you look at Indie support for Strickland, the Governor is on par with what Corzine obtained in the last Quinnipiac Poll before the election. Clearly, that's not a positive.

Interestingly enough, in 2006, the last Quinnipiac Poll before the election had Strickland winning nearly double the number of Independents that support him now. This flip in Indie support is a telling blow.

But what really got my attention was the same question when broken down by region. In the September poll, Strickland won central Ohio, Kasich's base, by one point. And now, in the same region, Kasich is up by 18. Why the massive flip? In central Ohio, politics is king. People are more likely to pay attention to the budget fiasco and the rest of Strickland's troubles. Is it possible that frustration with the incumbent reached fever pitch and turned the tide against the Governor?

• Next up, the approval numbers.

This is a big one. Strickland's approval among Democrats has ticked down, and disapproval has ticked up. Only 62% of Democrat voters approve of the job he has done. Why is that important? In New Jersey, where voter turnout was key and Democrats failed to show up, Corzine's approval in the last poll before the election was 70% among Democrats. Eight points higher than Strickland. The Governor's approval among Democrats has now shown to be consistently and substantively worse. Additionally, Corzine and Strickland are even when it comes to the number of Democrats disapproving of the respective incumbent Governors.

If Strickland is doing worse among his base than Corzine, in a state where the base is a smaller percentage of the electorate than New Jersey, then that's extremely bad news for Ohio's incumbent Governor. Provided this keeps, without question Ted Strickland will lose. It's impossible to win if your base in a purple state stays away.

What about Kasich?

In a shock to absolutely no one, Kasich's name recognition remains low. Until the campaign kicks into high gear with commercials, mailings and door-to-door efforts, that won't change. With that said, his unfavorables remain relatively unchanged, except for a drop from 18 to 11 points among Democrats and one point among Independents. Is this an indication that the Ohio Democrats' attacks on Kasich aren't working? Absolutely. What will their likely reaction be? Getting louder. Why? You know why.

But is Kasich's lack of name recognition a worry? Not at all, and as I've been discussing on this blog as far back as March, it's all part of the plan. Allowing Strickland to dominate news coverage does two things: 1) it increases voter perception of his ownership of Ohio's problems and 2) prevents Strickland from being able to engage in debate with an opponent, thereby eliminating any chance for the Governor to distract from his problems. And as we can see in the Governor's approval numbers, this strategy has worked like a charm.

Remember, we're still a year away from the election. Kasich is best served by letting Strickland stew, then charging in with a message of a proven alternative with a successful record of change.

• Next question of interest is whether voters are satisfied with the way things are going in Ohio.

These responses are attached at the hip to the Governor's approval ratings. 38% overall and 34% of Independents approve of the Governor. 35% overall and 31% of Independents are satisfied with how things are going in the Buckeye State. So goes the state, so goes the Governor.

• Has Ted kept his campaign promises?

Only 32% say yes. The worst ever. Even worse? Less than half of Democrats responded in the affirmative. And that number is down 7 points from just two months ago.

Ouch.

• One of the final questions was particularly interesting, asking "regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy - Ted Strickland or John Kasich?"

These types of questions give voters the excuse to back away from their partisanship and give straight answers about what they really believe about who can solve the issue most pressing on the minds of Ohioans.

Kasich wins this one, 41-33. 1 out of 7 Democrats think Kasich would be a better fit. Independents picked Kasich by 11. The frightening thing for Democrats? Kasich easily wins on this question when 69% of the electorate don't know enough about him to tell a pollster whether they approve or disapprove of him.

Wait 'til Kasich goes up with commercials highlighting his experience balancing the national budget for the first time since man walked on the moon.

In conclusion, this poll screams bad news for Ted Strickland. In order for him to turn things around there must be a major shift in Ohio's economy and a quick flip in job numbers. As we highlighted above, approval of the Governor goes hand in hand with the state of the state. If approval is low, so will voter turnout of the Governor's base. If turnout is low, the Governor can start packing his things.

And that's where we stand.

I know some folks who need dropkicked.

Sure, I have my disagreements with liberals and other assorted left wingers.

But these folks? These folks need dropkicked.

Who dresses up on Halloween and taunts children of military families with stories about dying in war?

How does that progress your cause?

Here's Code Pink at their worst:

Ouch.

Last week we reported on the disastrous interview Ted Strickland went through on 55KRC in southern Ohio.

Well, it turns out the good folks at Turnaround Ted have decided to have a little fun with it...

The Options

Breaking news this afternoon:

Reported options are:

1. Ignore it.
2. Defer 'til later.
3. Schedule talks.
4. Apologize.

But seriously, this process is lasting longer than Obama's entire Senate term.

h/t: BCS

Ohio Democrats are whistling past the graveyard

This weekend brought an interesting column from the Toledo Blade.

In their "wake-up call" for Governor Strickland, they stated the following:

Mr. Strickland should pay close attention to that message as well. The governor must be seen to be doing more to breath life into the state economy. As the vote on Issue 3 made clear, Ohioans are desperate for jobs. Elected officials who do not follow through on their promise to reduce the jobless rate can expect to be unemployed themselves.

With an unemployment rate over 10% and an ever-shrinking labor force, Strickland continues his focus on everything but improving Ohio's business environment.

How do we know? Look at the Governor's one vehicle for utilizing government action to bring jobs to the state: the Democrat-led Ohio House of Representatives Economic Development Committee. This committee is the primary medium through which all legislation must flow that is designed to increase Ohio's economic development.

With that in mind, you'd imagine the committee would have been quite busy this year considering Ohio's jobs crisis. After all, it is their responsibility to not only mark-up legislation designed to solve the crisis, but to also hold hearings on new ideas and solutions to the problem.

So, how have they done?

In the past 11 months, the Democrat-led House Economic Development Committee has:

• Met 6 times.
• Discussed only 4 bills.
• Approved 1 bill.
• Refused any hearings on any bill offered by a Republican.
  

In other words, jack and squat.

That one bill sent through to the House for passage? A compact with the Ohio Cities Task Force to provide a report on "identifying and classifying incentives". This report was supposed to be delivered on September 30th of this year. And what have we heard?

Not much.

Pathetic.

Remember what the Blade said? "Elected officials who do not follow through on their promise to reduce the jobless rate can expect to be unemployed themselves."

So with that in mind, what have the Republicans offered so far as bills designed to stimulate job growth? Let's take a look:

• HB 277. Would authorize to authorize a $2,400 income tax withholding credit for an employer that hires and employs a previously unemployed individual.

• HB 144. Would grant an income tax credit eliminating tax liability for five years for individuals who obtain a baccalaureate degree and who reside in Ohio.

• HB 311. Would help businesses cut through bureaucratic red tape and provide accountability in crafting agency regulations.

• HB 320. Would provide more flexibility, allowing an employer to instead provide compensatory time, or paid time off of work, if a prior agreement is arranged between the employee and employer and the arrangement is voluntary.

• HB 337. Would require the Ohio Department of Development to produce a report of companies that have relocated out of Ohio, develop a standard questionnaire to elicit the reasons why those companies have chosen to leave Ohio, and share its findings with the legislature.

• HB 346. Would track Ohio’s success rate in returning and keeping jobless Ohioans in gainful employment.

Now, while I'm not necessarily endorsing each one of these bills, they clearly address the job crisis that Ohio is currently facing. If the House Democrats and Governor Strickland aren't ready to take on the challenge, they have an obligation to their constituents to at least give these bills a fair hearing.

Asked for comment, Ohio Democrats responded with the following***:

*** - not really.

About that AMA endorsement....

Last week, President Obama fawned over the endorsement of Pelosicare by two political powerhouses, AARP(who stands to make millions from its passage) and the American Medical Association.

With those endorsements, Congressmen Zack Space, Mary Jo Kilroy, and Steve Driehaus likely breathed a sigh of relief.

That was premature.

The Ohio State Medical Association, the state affiliate of the AMA, came out harshly against the U.S. House's brand of health care reform. Among their concerns...

The association represents about 20,000 physicians, residents, medical students and practice managers. Thomas said the flaws in the latest House bill, introduced last week by Democratic leaders after months of committee work, include a perennial problem with payments to doctors under Medicare, the federal program that pays senior citizens' health bills.

[...]

"As physicians, we understand better than many others that the status quo of the health care delivery system is unsustainable," Thomas said. "However, the total proposal lacks many of the critical elements necessary for successfully reforming America's health care delivery system and strengthening the physician-patient relationship."

And Space, Kilroy, and Driehaus voted for it anyway.

The AMA is a powerful lobby in Ohio. While that didn't stop these three congressmen from voting with their constituency, it will make them pay come next November.

The Too-Little, Too-Late Governor

In a statement all too symbolic of his entire term as Governor, Ted Strickland recently came out against Issue 3.

Yes, I know it already won.

From nbc4i.com:

Ohio’s governor and members of the horse racing industry are concerned that voters’ recent approval of casinos in four cities will hurt the state’s already struggling racetracks, which employ about 12,000.

Ya know, Governor, this concern would have been more effectively shared with Ohioans before they supported it by less than 200,000 votes last week.

Instead, you're late to the party and hiding from controversy.

Again.

Slacker.

Now here's 3BP's recommendation: worry less about racetracks, worry more about bringing jobs back to Ohio.

A clueless Chairman.

I swear, it's like the Ohio Democratic Party is in denial.

For some reason, rather than focusing on issues that matter to Ohioans, they think they can win by making sure Ohioans learn John Kasich used to work for Lehman Brothers. Their reasoning? Jon Corzine lost!

Like Mr. Strickland, Mr. Redfern drew parallels between Mr. Corzine and Mr. Kasich.

"There is a disconnect between John Kasich and the voters," Mr. Redfern said. "He can run from his Lehman Brothers past, but as Jon Corzine just showed, he can't hide."

So, Corzine lost because of his connection to Wall Street, eh?

Ok, then. You want to compare New Jersey to Ohio? Fine. Let's look at the Garden State's exit polls.

Nearly a third of the voters heading to the polls in this off-year election pitting Democratic Gov. John Corzine against Republican Chris Christie, 31 percent, said the economy was the most important issue, while 26 percent said property taxes, 20 percent indicated corruption and 18 percent identified health care.

Anything about Wall Street or personal issues with Corzine? Nope. Nothing. Instead, what do we see? An electorate focused on the state of their state.

So, where does Ohio stand on the issues that actually were of importance to New Jersey?

• Economy. During Strickland's time in office, Ohio's unemployment rate doubled.
• Taxes. Ohio suffers from the 4th worst business tax climate in the country and the State/Local tax burden is currently 7th worst.
• Corruption. Strickland's Administration has suffered from at least ten staff members being fired for criminal, ethical, or other misdeeds in office.
• Health Care. Strickland's only positive talking point includes increased coverage for children.

So, as Redfern uses New Jersey as a measuring stick for Ohio, Strickland fails miserably on the exact issues which determined that election.

[sigh]

Sometimes I wonder if the Ohio Democrats are trying to throw this election.

Is there such a thing as tripling-down?

There is now.

From Politico:

For Perriello, Kilroy, Driehaus and Space, the health care bill represented their second exceptionally tough vote this year — the other was on the cap-and-trade bill — meaning they’ve essentially doubled down on the ambitious national Democratic agenda.

In other words, these Ohio congressmen in swing districts have chosen to live and die by Nancy Pelosi.

Gutsy.

On top of it, Politico seems to forget the $787 billion incredibly poorly named "stimulus" bill that not one Republican supported in the House.

Three votes. Three ways to lose.

Now, I'll submit that Space is in a much more favorable position financially and demographically than Kilroy or Driehaus, but considering the massive differences in levels of enthusiasm among each base, you have to give State Senator Bob Gibbs a fighting shot to take him down.

2010 for 2010.

As you should see in the widget on the right, the Kasich campaign is making an online push to pull in 2,010 internet contributors in the month of November.

This, needless to say, is awfully ambitious. Most similarly sized campaigns only bring in a few hundred internet contributions a month.

But, I'm digging the Kasich campaign's latest online effort. If they can reach their goal, it will highlight a vast level of support among the grassroots.

Click here and help the team out.

What was the motive, again?

From the Washington Post:

About 9 a.m. Thursday, Maj. Nidal M. Hasan walked over to see a neighbor in his aging apartment building here on the edge of downtown. He had come to say goodbye.

The two occasionally would sit together in plastic chairs beneath a wind chime on the landing outside her second-floor apartment, she recalled. She was Christian and he was Muslim, but they shared coffee and talked about God. But this morning, Hasan said that he would be deploying to Afghanistan soon and that he did not want to go. He gave her a copy of the Koran.

"I'm going to do good work for God," he told her.

Also from ABC News...

U.S. intelligence agencies were aware months ago that Army Major Nidal Hasan was attempting to make contact with people associated with al Qaeda, two American officials briefed on classified material in the case told ABC News.

'Nuff said.

I leave for one weekend and see what happens...!!!

Health Care reform passed in the late Saturday night hours on Capitol Hill.

That will teach me to come home to Columbus, Ohio for a long weekend.

Sorry about that, everyone.

The Case of the Hidden Congressmen

Even though I'm back home in Ohio this weekend, I'm learning about some interesting goings on back in Washington DC.

From a friend at his desk on Capitol Hill:

As you're aware, we are voting today/tomorrow on the healthcare bill. Most DO/DC offices are open and taking calls, however it appears that so far Kilroy, Space and Driehaus are not open for business...may lead someone to believe that they're trying to hide from their constituents or Democrats just don't work on Saturdays.

Indeed.

Come on, Dems. Live up to the responsibilities your constituents entrusted in you. It's the least you can do.

If you want to leave a message on their voicemails to let them know how you feel, you can reach them here:

Kilroy: (202) 225-2015
Space: (202) 225-6265
Driehaus: (202) 225-2216

Go get 'em, folks.

UPDATE: Well, I've been informed that Rep. Driehaus' voicemail is full. Soooo that means they aren't even checking to hear what their constituents have to say.

Does someone want to find Rep. Driehaus and read him his job description?

UPDATE II: Thanks to Campaign Spot and the House Republican Conference for linking to this post. Other state-centric bloggers reading this would do a service to their readers by checking out the swing voting Congressmen in their state to find out if they also decided to go AWOL on this very important day.

Marco Rubio is going to win.

Months ago when discussing Marco Rubio's decision to challenge Charlie Crist, I said he was a great candidate, but probably should have chosen to run for Governor due to his massive shortage of cash relative to his Senate primary opponent, Governor Charlie Crist.

The only thing holding him back was money.

Marco Rubio has the message. The enthusiasm. The charisma. And most importantly, the right stance on issues important to Americans.

Then the Tea Party movement happened. Thousands of conservatives organized.

Then Rubio reported raising one million in the third quarter.

Then NY-23 happened. Showing Club for Growth and the Tea Party movement had a substantive ability to create a primary when there isn't one.

Then Charlie Crist got stupid. On Wednesday, Crist told Wolf Blitzer, “I didn’t endorse [the stimulus]. I didn’t even have a vote on the darn thing.”

And Rubio's campaign was ready with this web ad.



Not only is it an extremely effective video, but the quick cut and distribution shows a campaign already in month-out form.

Then the hammer came.

Club for Growth paid for this advertisement on Florida TV.



With ads like this, Club for Growth can use paid media to continue to highlight Crist's negatives and enable Rubio to focus his meager funds on improving his own visibility and promoting his message.

I don't see C4G letting up, either. A Florida win would give them the big win they've been dreaming of and prove their viability on a major scale.

And Marco Rubio will win.

Stimulus fail.

This graph was originally published by the Obama Administration when they wanted to highlight how the stimulus would solve the jobs crisis.

Since then, the Innocent Bystanders blog has updated the graph monthly with the actual unemployment numbers since the stimulus was enacted.

It's too bad the original graph didn't go higher than 10%.

In addition, the Associated Press tells us:

But the loss of jobs last month exceeded economists’ estimates. It’s the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has shed jobs, the longest on records dating back 70 years.

Counting those who have settled for part-time jobs or stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.

Can we have our $787 billion back?

h/t: Hotair.com