Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Kasich gets good news but also room for improvement in latest poll

Quinnipiac University released an Ohio poll yesterday, so let's take a look at where John Kasich stands with the gubernatorial election still almost two years away.

The poll's top line shows their highest approval rating for Kasich to date, but there is also some more catching up to do in the next couple of years.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has a 42 - 35 percent job approval, the first time since his inauguration in 2011 that registered voters have given him a thumbs-up rating, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Kasich seems to be benefitting from high levels of satisfaction among Ohio voters with life in the Buckeye State.

But the governor does not deserve a second term, voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll by an almost identical 43 - 36 percent margin. All voters say 44 - 37 percent that another Republican should challenge the governor for the 2014 nomination. By 45 - 41 percent, self-described Republicans say no other Republican should challenge Kasich.
First off, those reelect numbers are obviously not where the administration wants to be. More on that later. Let's move to the positives in this poll.

As mentioned, 42-35 is the best net approval rating that Quinnipiac has found for Kasich during his term. That tells us that his approval rating is moving in the right direction.

Ohioans are also genuinely positive about where Ohio is headed right now. 60% are very or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in Ohio today. In January, only 41% felt that way.

How do people feel about Ohio's economy? 42% believe it is getting better, while only 19% feel it is getting worse.

Of those who think it is getting better, 61% think Governor Kasich deserves a lot or some of the credit, while 58% say President Obama deserves a lot or some of the credit.

Voters aren't the only folks who know things are looking up in Ohio. From the Dispatch yesterday,
“There’s a great deal of momentum going on in central Ohio and Ohio generally,” said James Newton, chief economic adviser at Commerce National Bank. “We were kind of the armpit of the nation, and now it’s dawning on people that it’s a fine place to do business.

Back to the reelect numbers. There is work to do there, but consider that the governor isn't even close to being on the airwaves yet. When that time comes, we expect him to have a significant cash advantage with which to tell voters about his successes and how they are propelling Ohio's recovery.

Consider the election that just finished. President Obama spent tens of millions of dollars taking all the credit for Ohio's recovery. And yet, when asked who deserves "a lot of credit" for it, Obama only leads Kasich by 8%.

When you're this far out, reelect polls aren't as important as how people feel Ohio is doing right now. And that number is moving the right way.

Don't fall for the doom and gloom that liberals are already spouting. These guys are focusing on the negatives and using bad analysis to boot.

Take their comment about 42% being a bad number according to Nate Silver. Silver's analysis was referring to 42% in a head to head matchup, not approval rating (and they even note that). But for some reason, the Plunderpals apply it to an approval rating anyway.

Second, Silver says in his post that "This analysis focuses only on early polls: those conducted between January and June of an incumbent's election year." Hey guys...we are over a year away from January of the election year. So not only are you applying Silver's analysis to the wrong number, you're applying it to the wrong time frame. Derp.

Voinovich retired because of poll numbers like this? Yeah, that's brilliant. He was really afraid of running against Mr. 39% of vote Lee Fisher. Guess what? Voinovich would have been 75 at the start of his new term. Maybe he just wanted to retire and relax after a lifetime in politics.

The election is far off, and there is room for improvement. But there is certainly fertile ground for a successful Kasich reelection.

1 comment:

  1. So, you're basically criticizing Plunderbund over caveats it already pointed out? Derp, indeed.

    Ohioans feel good about the Ohio economy, but they give Obama a >50% approval rating and Kasich 42%. That's what's already baked into the political electorate over the economy.

    Ohioans have a more favorable opinion of Ted Strickland than Kasich. You ignored that. You called Obama toast over numbers far less worse than Kasich's.

    Seriously, you guys need to stop writing about polls, you have zero credibility after them. "Has Romney Already Won Ohio?:


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