Friday, March 2, 2012

Governor’s Poll Numbers Keep Improving

Two big things to take away from today’s Ohio Poll

 1.  Kasich’s numbers are moving up, more approve than disapprove of his     
 2.  Obama would love to be in the position that Kasich is in.

The big news that will surprise and disappoint the Ohio liberals?  Kasich isn’t underwater -- 44% approve of his job performance versus 42% (+2) who disapprove.  Clearly his numbers are moving in the right direction and the Governor is quickly bouncing back after last November.

Things are not as good for Team Obama.  He remains underwater with a 49% disapproval rating compared to 47% who approve.  

Independent voters are with Kasich by a +7 margin.  This is huge, especially considering the fact that Democrats were writing Kasich’s political obituary just 4 months ago.  

What’s good news for Kasich isn’t that great for Obama.  The same independents that favor Kasich by a +7 margin aren’t big fans of the President. 52% of them disapprove of Obama’s job performance compared to the 42% who approve (-10). Or, a 17 point swing from Kasich. This number alone is going to cause some anxiety in Chicago.

When you look at age groups of those polled, you’ll see that Kasich’s numbers are positive in each.  President Obama?  He is underwater in 3 out of 4.

Kasich also has positive numbers everywhere in Ohio except the Democrat stronghold in NE Ohio.  Obama is underwater everywhere but Central and NE Ohio.

College graduates (aka, those most likely to vote) approve of Governor Kasich’s job performance by a +8 margin with 51% approving and 43% disapproving. President Obama is underwater by a -7 margin (53% vs. 46%) with the same demographic.

Despite the clear improvement in Ohio’s economy, there’s still work to be done on people’s perceptions.

That being said, Kasich’s numbers have seen a +8 improvement from last March and are now just at -3.  Add in today’s great economic news and I think we will continue to see this upward trend.

President Obama’s numbers here don’t have the same level of support; he is still 10 points underwater.  The real painful number here is the whopping 58% of independent voters who disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, compared to just 34% who approve.

These numbers make it pretty clear that Ohio voters are crediting Governor Kasich with our recent turnaround, not President Obama.

This poll has to make any Democrat pondering a run in ’14 a little nervous.  

Just four months ago, they were chomping at the bit for a chance to challenge the Governor and reportedly fighting amongst themselves over who would run.  

Fast forward to today and Governor Kasich’s numbers are already bouncing back, far outpacing Obama in Ohio, and receiving FAR more support from independent voters than the President. Add 2 more years and continued job growth to this equation and Governor Kasich is going to be in a solid position.

Factor all of this together, along with the power of incumbency, and you must wonder whether potential challengers will decide it’s simply not worth taking the risk.

1 comment:

  1. Greetings,

    In the past year our goal has generally been to identify the best overall state central committee candidate for each available seat, considering 1) their conservative principles, 2) their past contributions to our "movement", 3) their potential impact on the state central committee, and 4) their electability.

    In Ohio's 30th district the job wasn't too hard. Leslie Haas has "earned her stripes" as a "Tea Party" conservative. She is running for state committeewoman, opposed by incumbent Marilyn Ashcraft. Jim Carnes was recruited by the Governor's team to run for this open seat. He is opposed by Michael Young who we understand to be Ohio GOP Chairman DeWine's candidate.

    Ohio GOP Chairman DeWine has pretty much "outed" himself in the past few months. Instead of conserving the GOP war chest to defeat Obama and Brown in November, he is spending it to defeat Republicans who may vote against him as GOP Chairman. The postcard mailings alone cost the GOP $10-12,000 apiece. DeWine has reached the pinnacle of putting his own self-interest above the good of our state and our country. He is a rogue. He needs not to be "outed", but ousted. We need Haas and Carnes to be elected, to help us oust DeWine.

    It is time now for the Get Out The Vote effort to elect our state central committee representatives.

    We invite everyone who receives this email to help us get the word out in support of Haas and Carnes. Talk to the people that you haven't had a chance to talk to yet, in person or by phone, or at least send them an email. Post your views on your websites, Facebook, Meetup, etc. Buy a robocall from TRZ Communications. Contact Haas and Carnes and ask what you can do to help as a volunteer.

    Consider this. In 2010 we picked up eight seats in spite of the Ohio GOP unexpectedly throwing its full support and war chest behind our Primary opponents. We came within 200 votes of winning two more seats; less than one vote per precinct. We came within 1200 votes of winning about four more seats beyond that; about 4 votes per precinct. This year, we think we can achieve the 2/3 majority needed to throw DeWine out. We need your help to do that. Every vote counts.

    We urge you to support Haas and Carnes, and to get all your friends and neighbors to do likewise. We don't have a lot of contacts in southeast Ohio. We're depending on you. Make it happen.


No profanity, keep it clean.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.