Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Something Just Ain't Right: Romney Up With Independents, But Down Overall?

A new poll on the presidential election hit this morning, giving Obama a 50% to 45% edge over Romney in the Buckeye State.  With other polls showing the race much, much tighter, something just ain't right about that +5% Obama advantage.

So, as always, we looked at the numbers.

Quinnipiac has the race broken down with Democrats siding with Obama 92% - 6%, Republicans with Romney at 91% - 7%, and Independents favoring Romney 49% to 43%.  As we've said before, Independents are where elections are won, and almost every poll shows Romney clearly has the edge in this category.  But despite Romney being up 6% among the key electoral demographic, Obama is winning Ohio by 5%?

Something just ain't right.  Especially if you understand statistics.

If you run those numbers through the same turnout as in 2008--a historically high turnout year for Democrats that won't be repeated this year--Obama leads Romney by a 49.6% to 46.7% margin, or just 2.9%.  That's the poll's margin of error.

In other words, Quinnipiac seems to think that Democrats are going to turnout in droves, and Republicans are going to stay home.  Apparently they've missed the headlines on GOP enthusiasm as of late.  What's worse for Democrats, if they turnout at their ten-year average, Obama's lead shrinks even further to just 0.6%.

That's right, if history is any indicator, as of today, the race stands at  48.4% Obama, 47.8% Romney.  Which means the undecided voters get to decide who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years.  And any expert will tell you, if you're undecided a week from Election Day, 9 out of 10 times, you break for the challenger.

To put it another way, if Obama hasn't sold you yet on the last four years, he's not going to earn your vote for another four.

At the end of the day, Democrats can hang their hats on the Quinnipiac numbers, but they're simply inaccurate.  Here in Ohio, Romney's up 6% with Independents and down overall, which doesn't make sense, but in Virginia, Quinnipiac has Romney up over 20% with Independents, and still down overall.

Something just ain't right.

But as any good Republican knows, the only poll that matters comes out in just 6 days.  Regardless of what the polls, political analysts, and politicians say, this race is going to be close and it's up to you and I to drive the vote.

So tell your friends, tell your family, tell the guy down the street you met that one time at the church blood drive--tell everyone--to get out and vote.  This election will truly come down to each individual and their opinion on the direction of this country.  Ohio, and the nation, cannot afford four more years like the last four years. 

Let's do this thing.


  1. Figures don't lie but liars figure..

  2. Here's our take on the "polls" for this elections. . .

    Think that we can all agree that they are "skewed" (results/data collection) and the reason we feel this is because heaven forbid that the real numbers are released and show the truth that BHO (a "historic" POTUS)is getting his hat handed to him all over America. . .

    Also, if the polls were accurately reported, then the race would be over; there'd be no need for the pollsters to continue doing their "jobs" and they'd be out of work so to speak until the next big issue/thing came along that someone wanted a sampling of.

  3. New PPP poll coming out assumes Dem portion of the electorate at, get this, 45%, in Ohio. In 2008 at the height of Obamamania, Dem turnout was 39% of the electorate.

    EL. OH. EL.

    1. And you're reasons for dismissing the other six polls in the past 48 hours that also show Obama leading? We're waiting, Nick.

    2. Who says I'm dismissing anything? Again, Modern argues against something that was never said.

      Ohio is too close to call. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. The momentum has clearly been on Romney's side in the last 2-3 weeks, however. And aggregating all the polls together shows that independents favor Romney.

      But back to my point, a poll that samples 45% Democrats is absurd.

    3. "The momentum has clearly been on Romney's side in the last 2-3 weeks."

      Virtually every poll and every poll aggregate tracking site rebuts this. It's simply not true. The only poll that shows ANY momentum is Rasmussen. That's it, and not much of one.

      And not all the polls show Romney winning independents in Ohio, either.

      You can call one poll absurd, but the remaining six, too? All of which show Obama ahead at virtually the same margins he's had most of the race except for the post-DNC Convention bounce for Obama and the Romney bounce after the first debate?

      Ok, Nick...

    4. Last three polls from various sources:
      - Ohio Poll: Obama +3%, Obama +5%, Obama +2%
      - Rasmussen: Obama +1%, Tie, Romney +2%
      - FOX News: Obama +6%, Obama +7%, Obama +3%
      - Quinnipiac: Obama +10%, Obama +5%, Obama +5%

      You see how those numbers trend toward Romney? That’s called “momentum.”

      Now please, stop with your fantasy-world statistics.

    5. As for the latest polls:

      Ohio Poll: 48% - 46% Obama, within the margin of error. Obama still can’t get to 50%.
      Rasmussen: Romney’s ahead, within the margin of error.
      SurveyUSA: 48% - 45% Obama, within the margin of error. Obama still can’t get to 50%.
      Gravis: 50% - 49% Obama, within the margin of error, and Obama needed a +8% Dem turnout to be that close.
      Quinnipiac: 50% - 45% Obama, with a +8% Dem sample, a historically low GOP turnout, and Indies favoring Romney
      Purple Poll: 46% - 44% Obama, Romney leads by 11% with Independents
      ARG Poll: 49% - 47% Obama, Dems with historically high turnout and +7% sample, Romney leads Indies by 21%

      2008 was a watershed year for Democrats, and they had a +8% advantage. Any political analyst worth their salt will tell you that turnout won’t happen again.

      So please, tell me again how you think Obama is sitting pretty?

  4. Well if they can't get people to vote for BHO by tweeking the polling data, then they do it by manipulating voting machines. . .please consider doing a story to remind all Ohioans to pay attention when they go to vote next Tuesday; especially if they are voting on an electronic machine vs. paper ballot. . .OH's can't simply assume that their vote will be cast for Romney if they select his name on the electronic machine. . .it's already happening in early OH voting (

    Now this may be a simple oversight but this race is too impt to allow malfunctions/clitches to determine who is the next POTUS.

    1. Yes, maybe Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted has tampered with the machines to help... Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama! That MUST be it!


    You are trying to dismiss seven polls in the past 48 hours showing Obama winning. The Quinny poll today shows the same results as it did two weeks ago. What did you say about it then? {Cue crickets}

    Romney is tanking. You can cling to your "unskewed" poll fantasies that the numbers really show Romney up. It's the same arguments you made as to why Issue 2 wasn't headed to massive defeat last fall, too.

    But winning campaigns don't claim poll bias. Especially against every. poll. in. the. race.

  6. okay, if BO wins I'm moving out of this country!

    1. Would you please take "Modern Esquire" with you; better yet, just let them have your ticket and continue to stand up, speak out and fight back against the most corrupt administration in the history of our country!

  7. and I'm moving to a 2nd world country too.... I think I'll do better there.............

  8. I can't see what is so hard to see here -- that guy Modern is a good example of what I mean. A poll is only as good as the quality of its sample --agreed? From all I have seen this year republicans are more enthused about voting than democrats. It was the reverse in 2008.

    Given that why would anyone expect that the +6% democrat advantage (i.e., 39% to 33%) at the polls seen in 2008 will be seen again in 2012? Is there any evidence of greater D intensity this year -- anywhere?

    Therefore if you don't believe that the actual 2012 electorate will be +6% D then why poll the likely voters at a rate of +6% D?

    Add to that the fact that Ohio independents are with Romney this year, in double digit margins. This in contrast with 2008 when they favored Obama.

    So to conclude that these polls favor an Obama win in Ohio in 2012 seems unwarranted at best? These polls will correctly pick the winner only if the 2012 voter turn out is +6% democrat. How likely is that?

    1. The problem Fargo is that most of the Ohio polls have a +3-4 D sample, and they still show Obama ahead. 7 of the last ten most recent polls have Obama at or above 50%. 0 out 10 has Romney hit that mark.

      And, no, it's not necessarily true that independents are with Romney this year by double digit margins. Some polls have shown that, but plenty of others (the Ohio Poll by UC and today's Dispatch poll) shows Obama with a double digit lead with Independents.

      That's the problem with this site, they're building a false narrative about the polling by cherry picking data and they saying that's representative of all polling in the race to make their case, but it's not true.

      The pollsters aren't weighing the polls to get large Democratic samples, it's what the result multiple pollster are getting in the field.

    2. Don't know of any Ohio poll in the last two weeks that was Obama 50% - Romney 43% on polling sample that was 3-4% +D


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