The consensus forecast for 2010/2011 remains stable. Leading indicators show positive signs; lagging indicators continue to show negative signs. The economy has yet to show consistent, positive signs of recovery because of the negative wealth effect on consumers and the lack of access to credit for businesses, particularly small businesses. As a result, the economists continue to believe Ohio and the nation will experience a slow recovery.In November I highlighted Strickland's best-case scenario for a turnaround:
What if we get particularly generous and give Strickland the average rate of improvement from the best nine month period of economic recovery in Ohio since 1976 – January through September of 1983.It looks like even that not-so-great scenario is ka-put.
That improvement averaged 0.3% over nine months. At that rate over the next nine months, unemployment over the next goes down to 7.8%, or 44% higher than when Strickland came into office.
As are Strickland's chances for re-election.