Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Will voting for Obamacare help or hurt incumbent Democrats?

Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling recently asked that very question.

Their answer may surprise and disappoint some liberals that believe passing the legislation is in the best interest of Ohio Democrats that voted for Obamacare like Mary Jo Kilroy, Steve Driehaus, and Zack Space.

PPP looked at two congressional districts held by Democrats, but barely won by McCain in last year's election. One member, Vic Snyder, voted for Obamacare, and the other, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who happens to be a total babe), voted against it.

Here's what happened:
-Among people who support the House health care bill, Snyder leads principal opponent Tim Griffin 86-3. Herseth Sandlin, despite voting against it, leads her chief competitor Chris Nelson by an 81-6 spread with those folks. So Snyder is doing eight points better on that front.

-Among people who don't support the House health care bill, Snyder trails Griffin 73-14. With that same group in South Dakota Herseth Sandlin trails Nelson 57-27. So she is doing 29 points better than Snyder on that front.

Herseth Sandlin faces very little in the way of recriminations from her base in spite of her vote, while Snyder now has little in the way of crossover support in the wake of his.

As you can imagine the sum result of that is that while our polls show both incumbents more vulnerable than normal Herseth Sandlin is in a stronger position than Snyder.
In Ohio, 59% of all likely voters don't favor Health Care Reform. Among Independents that number jumps up to 68%.

Taking all that into consideration, the Democrat Ohio incumbents who voted for the legislation have reason to be particularly nervous.

And rightly so.

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