Sadly for the Obama campaign, the rally could only fill a little more than two-thirds of the 21,000 seat Nationwide Arena, yet Democrats seem to think that was a success:
Apparently 6,000 empty seats is a success to Ohio Democrats. Then again, you'll have to excuse Chairman Redfern's poor math. He thinks he lives in a district 100 miles away from where his residence is actually located. But even those at RealClearPolitics picked up on the apparent lack of enthusiasm, despite the rally's star-power.
In case Democrats have forgotten what actual grassroots looks like, let's recap the last few Romney rallies in the Buckeye State:
30,000+ in West Chester last Friday.
12,000+ in Defiance (a city of just 16,000!) on October 25th
12,000 in Columbus today:
What's more, the Columbus rally above was over-capacity, needing 2,000 seats for the overflowing crowd.
That's what enthusiasm looks like, folks--and it's the kind of enthusiasm that wins elections. As for Obama? While Democrats can spin it all they want, he's struggling to turnout at even McCain's 2008 levels:
No wonder the polls show the President needs to meet or surpass the historical Democrat turnout of 2008 to even have a chance to win this thing.
Let's show Democrats what true enthusiasm is. Get out the vote, get your friends, family & colleagues to vote. It's time to ensure Obama lives up to his one-term proposition.
You forgot the 13k in Cincinnati last night, 2k was in overflow for Obama. Of course you did, because you think crowd size matters. Because that's yet another thing losing campaigns focus on.
ReplyDeleteFine, but tell the WHOLE story. Romney only had "hundreds" at a rally in Florida today. Only 8k in VA.
So, you're touting an evening, after work rally by Romney that was SMALLER than the President's rally that occured in the middle of the workday?
Seriously, you're a joke.
As a woman and a good republican....duh crowd size does matter. Feeling a little exposed today are we?
DeleteThanks GOHP for the article
If you're going to tell the "WHOLE" story, then how about the 800... not 8000, just 800... people that showed up for Biden in Virginia?
DeleteOr how about the fact that in 2008, Obama rallied 80,000 in Cleveland and 60,000 in Columbus in the days leading up to the election? Where's THAT excitement now?
And if rally size doesn't matter, then why did you care so much when union supporters flooded the Statehouse last spring? That was a middle of the workday rally too.
Your defense is weak, Modern. Perhaps retirement hasn't treated you so well...
The media cited large Dukasis rallies as a reason that campaign thought it was surging to win.
DeleteJohn Kerry had huge rallies near the end of his campaign.
They're not accurate predictors of campaigns, but you still haven't addressed how an afterwork evening Romney rally in Ohio with LESS people in than an Obama rally done during the workday is a sign of #RomneyStrength... because you CAN'T make that argument. It's absurd on its face.
BTW, Ryan had about the same number people at his Youngtown rally as Biden had in that VA rally.
So let's recap so there's no confusion. 1) Crowd sizes are not an accurate predictor of winners. 2) Especially when you have to cherry pick the data since for the most part the campaigns are running roughly the same size crowds wherever they go.
I can point out that for all the talk about the West Chester rally which was organized weeks in advance and advertised as long to get the maximium turnout, it STILL was half the size of what Bush got in '04.
I know you can't look at the polls to give you a metric to say you're going to win, but this is a pretty weak argument that is refuted by both history and the fact that you're cherry picking the data.
Lake County is a REPUBLICAN County. Of course, John McCain in '08 would get a higher turnout than Obama in '12 there. So what? It proves nothing.
Also, in 2008 McCain/Palin had the largest rally in Ohio, we all know how that turned out...once again, you guys are like a fat guy in a milkshake store, you are grasping at straws...
ReplyDeleteBetter than the cool-aid, you should try it.
DeleteRasmussen (15,000 Likely voters); Gallup (23,000 likely voters) and Pew (sample size unknown) all forecast that the 2012 voter party ID composition nationwide will be anywhere for +1D to +5R -- unlike 2008 when it was +7D.
ReplyDeleteI expect that might make a difference in a state like Ohio with more registered repubs than dems.
Fargo, but voter registration and voter id are not the same thing. Voter registration is based on nothing more than the last party primary you voted. Voter identification is what a voter self-describes themselves as.
DeleteThe GOP just had a highly competitive presidential primary which boasted its registration in Ohio, something the Democrats haven't had for four years (unless you believe that the Brunner-Fisher primary was a draw to get people to vote in the Democratic primary... but it wasn't as reflected by the fact that Democratic voter registration didn't surge.)
Again, Fargo, these are the same arguments conservative bloggers in Ohio made to dismiss the polls in 2006, 2008, and just last year in Issue 2. The same exact arguments. And each time, they've been proven completely wrong. Could this time be different? Based on these experiences, I wouldn't bet on it.
Actually the polling data from all those companies is based on phone call questions. "Which party of you do you identify with". Not voter registration.
DeleteMore folks are calling themselves R not D. If they are calling themselves R I'll bet 97% of them are voting R&R.
And for the record I had not doubt about how Issue 2 would turn out amd never stated it would pass -- here or anywhere else.
I've been on the ground here in SW Ohio for 2 months -- I've knocked on something short of 4000 doors. This area is HOT to vote FOR Mitt as well as AGAINST the incumbent.
Fargo, I have been doing the same thing in columbus for Obama, and I am getting the opposite result of what you are getting in SW Ohio. The point is that the pollsters are using antiquated methods to gather their info, and I just don't know how well they can be relied upon.
ReplyDelete