The recession is over. Let's spend $686 billion.

No, really. It is.

When will this horrible recession be over? According to one surprising source, it’s over right now.

The source is Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macroeconomist and professor at Northwestern University. It’s surprising to learn he thinks the recession is over, because he is one of seven members of the elite Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis . These are the people who decide officially, for the record books, when recessions begin and end—usually many months after the fact, when the decision is really obvious.

Since the Stimulus Shit Sandwich was designed to pull us out of the recession, it's safe to say we can cut off the spending immediately, right?

After all, as of today approximately $101 billion of the appropriated amount has been obligated - in other words, only 12.8%. Since we're not in the recession anymore, it would make perfect logical sense to hold off on spending the rest and practicing just a weeee little bit of fiscal discipline.

Think of it this way, how do you think it would go over if our Democrat-led Congress came to the American people after a recession and said, "hey, would you mind if we spent $686 billion of your taxpayer dollars?"

Wouldn't make much sense, now would it?

So, let's just call it all off and save our future one helluva headache.

Yes, I know it won't happen, but one can dream.

A long weekend...

...of doing nothing of consequence.

Sorry for the lack of posting, but seeing as blogging pays nothing and it's summer, I decided to enjoy the weekend by going to a wine festival, spending great times with friends and the ladyfriend, and a full day of kickball earlier today on behalf of a charity in Maryland. Yes, I said kickball. It's fun. Don't judge. Ha.

It seems the previously posted Play Him Off, Keyboard Cat kept everyone's attention over the weekend in stacking up almost 1,300 views on youtube. Not bad at all.

And now we're back to our usual snarky political analysis that so many of you know and love.

Or something.

Even Keyboard Cat knows Obama's stimulus has failed...

Yeah, we're a little late to the party, but 3BP felt this morning's post on Obama's failed stimulus plan needed a little love from the Internet-Famous Keyboard Cat....so we made our own:

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

That is a statement which Republican leadership nationwide must start repeating over and over again.

Say it with me.

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

Some will disagree. Many will say we haven't given it enough time to do whatever good they think it will do.

But from a political perspective, it's vital for Republicans to gain the upperhand before the economy eventually does right itself(which it quite possibly would have done much faster without a stimulus in the first place) and the Democrats reap the benefits.

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

There is enough rhetoric and data to convincingly discuss the issue on Meet the Press or in special order speeches on the House floor.

When the President was selling the plan to the public back in January and February he explicitly stated the stimulus would quickly turn the economy around.

[The stimulus] is the right size, it is the right scope. Broadly speaking, it has the right priorities to create jobs that will jump-start our economy.

So let's check this out. Did it jumpstart the economy?

Let's ask my home state of Ohio where just yesterday we learned of 2,358 more auto workers losing their jobs. Or we can ask the Washington Post which just released this mind-boggling report on the actual number of unemployed Americans:

This morning's news that U.S. unemployment has hit 13.7 million, pushing the rate to 8.9 percent, tells only half the story of this recession.

The total number of Americans who are not working full-time but ought to be is actually about 22 million, or 15.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[...]

The 15.8 percent figure is the highest since the bureau began keeping these figures in 1994. Excluding the current recession, the highest previous rate came in January 1994, when it hit 11.8 percent.

The number was 8.7 percent in December 2007, when the current recession began. That means the number of the unofficially unemployed has shot up 7.1 percentage points since then.

[...]

By the way, in February, the White House predicted unemployment would top out at 8.1 percent this year, a figure that was blown through the following month.

It has made no call on how high the unofficial unemployment rate will go.

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

But will the public buy what we're selling?

All signs point to yes.

According to 2008's most accurate pollster, Scott Rasmussen, at time of its passing in Congress more Americans were against the stimulus than for it by a margin of 43-37. Among the all-important "unaffiliated" voters, a full 50% were against it. In other words, they came in thinking it was a bad idea. They are waiting to hear the news of its success or failure.

And how about now? Americans' confidence in the Democrats' ability to handle the economy has dropped a full 12% since right before last year's election. These people need to hear from the Republicans first. They need to know that the economy didn't buy what the President was selling.

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

As we detailed on Wednesday, the Administration is trying to paint a rosy picture of the economy. They are trying to convince the media and the voting public that things are turning around. While they aren't directly linking it to the stimulus, the implication they want to make is clear: With Obama in office, the economy is getting fixed.

Republicans can't let that happen.

The evidence is clear. Things aren't getting better. President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

Come next year we'll have even more bellwethers with which we can judge the President's policies.

The White House still is projecting that the nation's economy will shrink by 1.2 percent this year and increase by 3.2 percent next year. In addition, it projects that "by the end of this year," the economy will be growing at a 3.5 percent annual rate.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicts a gross domestic product decline of 3 percent this year, but 2.9 percent growth next year, while the April consensus of 50 blue-chip private economists sees a 2.6 percent decline in 2009 and only 1.8 percent growth next year.

Of those, who are you gonna trust?

Start prepping your commercials now.

"The President said things would improve. He spent nearly one trillion of our money to turn things around. He was wrong."

President Obama's stimulus plan has failed.

UPDATE: Nice timing. I beat Byron York's "The Stimulus is a Bust" column by an hour. Great minds... Ha.

I don't understand.

Why would this possibly happen?

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) - A year after Maryland became one of the first states to create a higher tax bracket for millionaires, the state's comptroller says the number of Marylanders in that bracket appears to be declining.

The comptroller's office says taxes collected from those in the top bracket fell by about $100 million.

The number of Marylanders with more than $1 million in taxable income who filed by the end of April fell by one-third, to about 2,000.

Comptroller Peter Franchot says some may have filed for an extension, but it looks like there is a "substantial decline" in the highest bracket.

Franchot says collections could fall $130 million short of current projections if the current course continues and that could mean more budget cuts later this year.

So, when you tax someone too much, they go away? Amazing.

It's a simple but important lesson. You'd think some of our friends on the left would have learned this by now.

h/t: LBG

More fantastic news!

And yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Jim Geraghty over at the Campaign Spot has a great post detailing the turtle-like pace in which the Obama Stimulus Shit Sandwich has been rolled out.

Obama's stimulus plan cost $787 billion. So far, in the first quarterly report from Joe Biden, they have "obligated" about 11 percent, or $88 billion. Of course, "obligated" does not mean "spent." It means "entered into a binding agreement that will result in outlays, immediately or in the future." In other words, they have arranged contracts to spend this money, but the funds may still be in government accounts, instead of getting out there and being, you know, stimulative.

[UPDATE: It gets worse on page 4: "As of May 5th, $28.5 billion had already been outlaid." This would make it 3.6 percent that has actually gotten out in the economy.]

Where he misses is connecting this new information to the slew of economic recovery rhetoric being spouted from Obama's Administration. For example, our President said on April 15th:

[...] from where we stand for the very first time we are beginning to see glimmers of hope and beyond that very off in the distance we can see a vision of America's future that is far different than our troubled economic past.

And what kind of headlines has the Administration been getting?

So here we have the Administration providing headlines saying the economy is turning around. In other words - trying to convince the public that the stimulus is working.

But now we find out that, if true, it has to be doing it all on its own since the Stimulus Shit Sandwich hasn't really done anything yet.

But will the voters realize it?

Finally.

Oh, Ted. You're always so innovative. So ahead of your time.

Or not.

Welcome to Twitter, Guv.


But someone else is already waaaaayyy ahead of ya.

Go figure.

Usually I ignore blogger Patrick Ruffini. While he's a bright guy, his constant self-promotion all over the internet has gotten on my nerves.

But this time I'll admit, he's pushing a pretty damn good idea.

FL Speaker of the House and current Senate candidate Marco Rubio should run for Governor.

That helps Republicans avoid a vicious primary. It gets a Republican(well, a RINO, but still far better than Specter ever was) into the Senate in Crist. And it sets up Rubio - a young, charismatic and likeable guy - to run for a slightly bigger office in 2016 at the ripe old age of 45.

Some people complain that they want a conservative in the primary against Crist. Fine. Get one. But it doesn't have to be Rubio. If he loses, he runs the risk of becoming a non-factor far before his time.

This will give you a good idea of why he's so popular down in Florida.

...and keep repeating it.

Last week I made a post hoping our GOP leadership would find a way to reframe the Cap and Trade debate into what it was....a tax hike.

Well, it looks like Mr. Boehner is doing just that. And he's keeping it simple.

Smart guy.

Check out this headline and text from Boehner's Freedom Project site:

The National Energy Tax. The National Energy Tax. The National Energy Tax.

Keep saying it. Hopefully you'll be hearing a lot more of it.

The Party of Ideas?

Nope. Not us.

At least that's the message conveyed by members of the RNC by this ridiculous display:

A RNC member tells Roger Simon that when committee members meet in an extraordinary special session next week, they will approve a resolution rebranding Democrats as the "Democrat Socialist Party."

RNC Chairman Michael Steele didn't want the meeting to be held, but members exercised "a rarely used party rule that allows any 16 RNC members from 16 different states to demand a special meeting" forcing Steele's hand.

Back in the mid-90s I started the College Republican group at tiny and uber-liberal Kenyon College. I remember going to the statewide CR conference that year in an effort to see how other groups ran themselves and to do a bit of networking to help our group out. I promised I wouldn't put myself through that again after going through all the resolutions the CRs wanted to pass that pretty much just focused on verbose insults of Clinton and how he did things.

"Do you think he sucks?"
"Yeah!"
"Let's vote on it!"

Just plain dumb and an incredible waste of what likely would have been another ridiculous weekend at Kenyon.

And you can tell whoever these RNC members are that they were those same type of people.

Not only are they imposing their will and weakening our Chairman, they are depicting the Party as reactionary, silly and childish.

The primary job of the RNC should be to raise money and recruit candidates. Not this.

This effort muds the waters that should be our message: namely explaining to the voters why Obama's ideas are bad and why ours are good.

This isn't explaining why ideas are bad. It's namecalling. And it damages the Party.

Stop it.

A Lesson in State Government

As recently as yesterday, Gov. Strickland had been pushing the message that he "remains ready to sit down at the table with those that want to discuss budget solutions with him."

Since he has failed to do anything during his term in office that would have substantively helped prevent Ohio's current economic situation, it's understandable that he is asking for help from anyone and everyone.

One person he has consistently 'called out' has been Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor.

Yesterday, Gov. Strickland said "I'm willing to sit down and talk with anyone,[...] quite frankly, even the auditor if she wants to come in."

Back in mid-April he called her out quite explicitly by stating:

Ohioans deserve nothing less from Auditor Mary Taylor and Republican leaders in the General Assembly than an honest answer to an important question: What taxes would you increase or what services would you cut, rather than utilize the federal stimulus resources that rightfully belong to Ohio taxpayers?

Since the Governor clearly doesn't understand the duties of the Ohio Auditor of State, I decided to look it up for him myself. Here ya go:

The auditor of state shall audit all public offices as provided in this chapter. The auditor of state also may audit the accounts of private institutions, associations, boards, and corporations receiving public money for their use and may require of them annual reports in such form as the auditor of state prescribes.

If the auditor of state performs or contracts for the performance of an audit, including a special audit, of the public employees retirement system, school employees retirement system, state teachers retirement system, state highway patrol retirement system, or Ohio police and fire pension fund, the auditor of state shall make a timely report of the results of the audit to the Ohio retirement study council.

The auditor of state may audit the accounts of any provider as defined in section 5111.06 of the Revised Code.

If a public office has been audited by an agency of the United States government, the auditor of state may, if satisfied that the federal audit has been conducted according to principles and procedures not contrary to those of the auditor of state, use and adopt the federal audit and report in lieu of an audit by the auditor of state’s own office.

Within thirty days after the creation or dissolution or the winding up of the affairs of any public office, that public office shall notify the auditor of state in writing that this action has occurred.

Now if you read blogs like I read blogs, you probably just glanced over all that nonsense.

To sum it up for you: it's not the role of the Auditor of State to devise solutions for budget boondoggles.

I know it may come as a bit of a shock to Governor Strickland, but Auditor Taylor does have a responsibility to the people that elected her to office to do the job which was elected to do. It's not like the job provides a bunch of spare time so she can swing by and help you do yours.

Speaking of doing what you're elected to do, here's an important bullet from your official duties as Governor of Ohio:

Submitting biennial capital and operating budgets

Yep. What you're asking Mary Taylor to do is actually your job, Mr. Strickland. I did note it doesn't say "submitting rational and fiscally responsible budgets", so I guess we can forgive Ted on that one.

Now, in reality we know what Ted is doing. He's playing politics. Shocker.

But once again Governor Strickland's obsession with bucking responsibility and saving his own hide is paramount to the best interests of Ohio.

I only hope someone in Ohio media will call him out on it. Unfortunately, that's unlikely until the race for Governor starts heating up in a few months and Strickland's opponent makes it an issue that must be talked about.

The reality is that Ohio doesn't have time to just sit back and pray everything ends up ok. We need a leader. We need someone who has proven that he will do what is right rather than what is politically expedient.

Ohio needs John Kasich.

Here they come.

If you live in Ohio, start putting away a bit more cash. It seems Gov. Strickland's 3-month old vow not to raise taxes has already reached its expiration date.

Gov. Ted Strickland has signaled that he'd be willing to discuss raising taxes in negotiations with lawmakers over how to plug a budget gap.

[...]

Income tax revenue for April was $322 million below projections, and Strickland's budget director is predicting slow growth, if any growth at all, in the next couple of years.

"Willing to discuss" it? Quit messing with us and just do it, Guv. This is like Strickland debating whether to quickly or slowly rip the bandaid off of the gaping wound that is Ohio's economy.

I guess I get it.

Citizens tight on money? Citizens must tighten their belts.

Strickland-led government tight on money? Citizens must tighten their belts.

Thanks to Gov. Strickland's inaction since he took office in 2007 to make Ohio more competitive, Ohio is now in the midst of a budgetary and economical crisis.

Raising taxes is no way to fix it.

Disagree? If so, hit up the comment page and provide a link to the last time a tax hike saved a ravaged economy.

I won't hold my breath.

h/t: Silverback

How do you know school choice works?

More people want to take part.

The Ohio Department of Education says there's been a double-digit increase in the percentage of applications for Ohio's school voucher program, two years after Gov. Ted Strickland sought to eliminate it.

Numbers released by the department show 13,064 students applied by last month's deadline for Educational Choice Scholarships for the upcoming school year. That represents an increase of more than 20 percent from the 10,818 applications received last year.

[...]

Strickland has called school vouchers undemocratic. He unsuccessfully sought to scrap the program soon after taking office in 2007.

I'm starting to wonder if there is anything Gov. Strickland gets right.

Ever.

The HBO Dance is Dead.

For us DC folks, this is a downright tragedy of epic proportions.

HBO has cancelled Screen on the Green.


From DCist:

According to Doninger, the cancellation of Screen on the Green had to do with financial issues involving the premium cable network's sponsorship of the event. HBO is still doing its annual summer film festival in Bryant Park in New York City this year, but the D.C. version won't be happening this summer for HBO.

Whether another sponsor comes forward to resurrect the festival is an open question, but considering the short time frame, we're not optimistic that this summer's Screen on the Green can be saved. HBO has partnered with AOL to sponsor the event since 2001, and was the sole sponsor before that.

Without a doubt, we are now in an economic crisis of epic proportions.

While 3BP contributor Union Station wanted to blame Obama, another friend said it must be Bush's fault. After all, look at Obama's gift to the British Prime Minister. Barack loves movies.

But no matter who is to blame, I will truly miss doing the HBO Dance.

We'll take those. Thanks.

Clubber Lang: I'm the baddest man in the world.
Rocky Balboa: You don't look so bad to me.

Today, Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call is up with an extensive look at two potential congressional race rematches. Kilroy v. Stivers and Driehaus v. Chabot.

Stivers is contemplating running again, and if he does so, he’ll join former Rep. Steve Chabot as the second Ohio Republican to have a rematch of a 2008 race next year. Without President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, national Republicans believe Stivers and Chabot are their best shot to defeat freshman Democrats as the party seeks to regain some of the territory it has lost recently in the Buckeye State.

The author nails the most important aspect of these rematches.

Turnout.

Right now, Driehaus and Kilroy have to be particularly nervous if normal midterm election turnout models hold up. It is safe to say both are using the power of incumbency to do whatever they can to save their seats.

And they are getting quite a bit of help from Speaker Pelosi.

The House wants to increase Members’ office budgets next fiscal year by almost 15 percent, partly because 2010 is an election year and lawmakers anticipate a surge in franked mail.

In a recently released budget request, the House Chief Administrative Officer asked appropriators to raise the Members’ Representational Allowances — which fund everything needed to run offices, including salaries, travel and supplies — by $90 million, citing increases “due to the election year cycle.”

“In an election year the expenditures increase and then decrease in a non-election year,” the request reads.

How bold has Pelosi gotten as Speaker?

So bold that she sees no ethical issue with wanting to use a massive increase in federal tax dollars for campaign purposes.

Just so we're clear, this $90 million can be used to send the Congressman back to have more events in his or her district, or they can send more mail/brochures to their constituents that promote their agenda.

From my time on the Hill, I remember having some interesting options for targeting mail sent to the District. For example, Kilroy could send out a brochure touting her stance on Medicare to voters 55 and up in Franklin County. It's totally legal and these increased funds provided by Pelosi ensure voters in Kilroy and Driehaus' districts will see much of it.

But these rematches will ultimately come down to three important variables:

• Turnout
  Favors both Republicans
  

• Money
  While Kilroy has a solid head start, these races are both high profile enough that there will be no massive financial advantage for any candidate
  

• State of the Economy
  Ohio isn't turning itself around anytime soon. And it is safe to say the economy will be issue number one in the Ohio Governor's race. Highlighting these deficiencies can only benefit the Republican challengers.
  

No matter what happens, it's good to see the 2010 races will have more excitement beyond the Guv race.

Can we talk about this now, Ted?

This post is penned by new 3BP contributor and new media grassroots extraordinaire, Henry Hill.

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland recently said that "[we would] cross that bridge when we come to it” when questioned about how to manage Ohio's massive budget shortfall.

If he wont answer that, how about this. Where are all the jobs going?

When you see numbers tossed around like 229,000 Ohio jobs lost in the past twelve months, it doesn't really hit you. It's almost too big a number to really comprehend. What does hit you are the job losses in your town - the people losing work in your county.

Recently, in my home town of Circleville, a major chemical company decided to cut 130 jobs at their plant so that they can relocate to a new plant in another state.

What does that say to me? This ‘other’ state offers better incentives to encourage businesses to come there.

This is the same thing that has been happening across the entire state of Ohio over the past year. Futures are being lost and suffering is on the rise across the state. Not only are people losing their jobs, but communities are losing their pride. As jobs leave, the schools slip, and as the schools slip, our future slips.

While Ted Strickland refuses to answer questions about the budget shortfall, maybe he can answer questions about this - what is being done to make Ohio more competitive? What are you doing to bring work back to Ohio?

It really hits home as you have to look around your own town and see houses being foreclosed and your neighbors moving away from their friends and family in an attempt to find a job.

That huge 229,000 number never hit me. That 130 lost in Circleville did. It is time Ted Strickland answers the hard questions, and I think blaming Taft is getting a tad old.

Ha.

h/t: spacebuck

Nice deflection.

During his press conference going on right now, in response to Dick Cheney's criticism of Obama Robert Gibbs said something to the effect of, "I have been struck by the former President and former Vice President taking markedly different views toward their post-public lives."

Sometimes Gibbs is good at not only not answering the question, but also trying to reframe the news story into one of Bush v. Cheney rather than Cheney v. Obama.

Of course, most of the time he's a blithering idiot.

It's come to this.

Even West Virginia thinks Ohio's Governor sucks.

If that isn't saying something, nothing will.

Where are the WMD's?

Over the past several years I've had my share of encounters with those who are upset major caches of WMDs weren't found in Iraq. To them, finding WMDs was the sole reason given by the Bush Administration for going to war with Saddam Hussein.

"After all, if they never found WMDs, why did we bother invading in the first place," they'd say.

They used it as a rallying cry in opposing the Bush Administration - calling it an unjust and unnecessary war.

They said the Bush Administration instead invaded to enhance their own personal interests, namely oil.

Obviously, the real reasons for invading were much more nuanced, but that isn't what this post is about.

The massive Stimulus Shit Sandwich passed last February is the new Iraqi War.

Wait. What?

Think about it.

What are the parallels?

• The Dems sold us on the stimulus package being what was needed to solve the economic crisis.

• The GOP(according to war dissenters) sold the Iraqi invasion as what was needed to get Saddam's WMDs.

• The Dems said our leaders were just looking out for their personal interests by invading Iraq.

• The GOP said Democrats were just trying to increase their own standing by using a massive spending bill to enhance their political base of power.

Without question, the Obama Administration sold Americans on the Stimulus being urgently what was needed in order to turn the economy around. After all, the Democrat-led Congress rushed through the legislation without giving the GOP, much less anyone else, a chance to properly vet the nearly $1 trillion in new spending.

How urgent were we to implement the Stimulus?

An article back from February wonders if jobs were lost because Obama waited to sign it.

Democratic lawmakers rushed to pass the economic stimulus bill last week after sounding alarms about the devastating toll inaction would take daily on the job market.

But once it passed, President Obama waited four days to sign it.

If the link between the $787 billion recovery package and the job market is as direct and immediate as Democratic leaders say it is, then could Obama's delay have cost the economy tens of thousands more jobs?

In early February, according to Rasmussen, 50% of independent voters supported the Stimulus bill. The primary reasons being belief that this bill would quickly turn around our economy and save jobs.

What about now?

Now we're learning the Stimulus Shit Sandwich is just that - a shit sandwich.

President Obama's chief economics forecaster said on Sunday that the country was not likely to see positive employment growth until 2010, even if the economy began to grow later this year.

Tying it back to the WMD analogy, Americans are learning we invaded(read: passed $1 trillion in new spending) for no good reason.

Want evidence? Check out this graphic.


Now the question is whether those 50% of Independents who initially supported the stimulus will recognize what the Democratic Congress and President Obama have done come the 2010 and 2012 elections. Will they be able to fathom a $1 trillion failure?

The challenge to Republican candidates in regards to the Stimulus Shit Sandwich is this - communicating that spending $1 trillion should have immediately turned around the economy, and it didn't.

Let's hope it works.

UPDATE: Thanks to the guys at Hotair.com for once again linking to 3BP. We appreciate the traffic.