Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Ohio Attorney General race = Game Over

This is the sound of Richard Cordray's chances in November.

With a new poll conducted by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies, Mike DeWine might as well start his gig at the Ohio AG offices tomorrow.

I had the opportunity to take part in a media conference call with the DeWine camp to go over the new poll. According to the numbers, DeWine leads 50-32.

But it's the crosstabs that are particularly interesting. Completely refuting the theory that strong Republicans won't support DeWine, 66% of them say they will "definitely" support the former Senator. Compare that to the 60% of Strong Dems that "definitely" support Cordray and it's clear that DeWine's support is more enthusiastic among the base. Further reinforcing the point is that total support for DeWine among those who identified as "Strong Republicans" is an impressive 96-3. Comparitively, Cordray has 84% support.

Showing that Independents aren't just breaking for Kasich and Portman, DeWine wins them 48-22. Interestingly enough, Newhouse stated Scott Brown had the same 2-1 advantage among Indies when he polled up in Massachusetts.

Based on the sample size, the question not involving any type of push polling, and Newhouse's fantastic track record, it would be hard for anyone to not find these results legitimate.

It's safe to say a gap this massive will make raising funds even more difficult for Cordray to mount a credible defense of the seat. And whatever funds he does raise will most definitely go towards negative/comparitive ads, as is always necessary when down so significantly.

A side benefit of DeWine dominating this race is that it prevents Cordray from influencing the Ohio House races the way he was able in 2008 when in the last couple weeks he filtered $500k to a couple House races that were won by just 1000 or so votes. Instead, every cent he has will have to go against DeWine.

As I've been saying for months - Mike DeWine being elected AG has been inevitable - and that's thanks to one person and one person only - Mike DeWine. He built the right relationships over his 30 year political career and has deftly used them to his great advantage in this race. His name ID is off the charts and, without an October surprise of sorts, insurmountable to overcome.

The bad news? This means the ODP will be able to spend a little more cash on Strickland, Pepper, et. al.

A screencap of the poll can be seen by clicking on the image below.


  1. I know what the polls says.... and I agree with you that DeWine created a network of contacts and $ to position himself where he is at... but I am in disbelief a conservative could vote for Mike DeWine. This guy cannot even make it past the Second Amendment!

    Though I would never & will not vote for Cordray.... I also could not vote for DeWine.

    Do you think it is just name recogniton & spending power or that people believe he is a good conservative candidate?

    Lastly... your thoughts on the new guy that just declared for the AG race? Then realistic electibility


  2. "He built the right relationships over his 30 year political career and has deftly used them to his great advantage in this race. His name ID is off the charts and, without an October surprise of sorts, insurmountable to overcome."

    Agreed; however, glaringly missing is anything having to do with qualifications, merit, or principle-- i.e. a reason to vote for him.

    In this political climate, any "R" with name recognition and money can win. Just like in '06 and '08 when just about any "D" could win-- and did. Just look how that worked out for Ohio and the Country.

    The smart play is to take advantage and get the right "R" (Conservative) elected to right this foundering ship of state that the ORP (Moderates) and Dems (Leftists) have allowed to list dangerously.

    This is a game changer moment for Ohio and the ORP, and they're stuck playing "Frogger" while we're playing in 3-D. The ORP and Obama Admin. are racing for the "Most Politically Tone Deaf" Award for 2010.

  3. While King and Joe C. raise some good points, the reality is that any movement to right is a win. Is MD everyone's dream candidate? Of course not, but a little "r" is better than a big "D." Yost may one day be the AG, but he was NOT going to beat Cordray THIS year. Period.

  4. I as well could not vote for DeWine. I don't think any conservative or anyone who believes in the second amendment will vote for DeWine.

  5. "Strong R" does not equal "Conservative". If anything, "Strong R" means more establishment. Mike DeWine considers himself a "Strong R", so does George Voinovich, Bob Taft, Bob Bennett, Kevin DeWine, and all the other "RINOs"...

    Show me a poll where "Conservatives" support Mike DeWine and then I'll give that poll a serious look...

  6. Robert Owens is now on the 2010 ballot for Ohio Attorney General. Robert Owens will be running in the Constitution Party. I would suggest to Mike DeRINO not to start measuring the windows in the AGs office for curtains yet because a real principled constitutional conservative is in the race now. Our next Ohio Attorney General Robert Owens. I wonder how the polls will look for Mike DeRINO in the future.


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