Friday, February 5, 2010

Pull up a chair and grab some popcorn.

For those that can't let go of the belief that Dave Yost could beat Mike DeWine, you're going to get your wish.

Thanks to Jennifer Brunner, it looks like you'll have the perfect seat to sit back and watch what would have happened had Dave Yost stuck it out against Mike DeWine.

Why? The races are virtually identical.

In her most recent report, Brunner announced she has a grand total of $60k on hand, or slightly more than Dave Yost had on hand at the end of December.....OR 1/30 of what Lee Fisher has on hand.

Lee Fisher has the support of the Democratic Party establishment, but is despised by the far left wing grassroots base that keeps Brunner alive in the race.

Are you starting to see the similarities?

The difference, and it's a big one - is Brunner has already won statewide. Dave Yost was, and still is, a relative unknown.

While many these days like to say that ideas can win over money, that isn't the case when you're massively outraised and don't have the cash to share those ideas with the electorate.

Jennifer Brunner will lose the primary. Just like Dave Yost would have had he stayed in the AG race.

UPDATE: This post has generated some interesting feedback. I'd like to reinforce what I said above - there is a massive difference between Brunner/Fisher and Yost/DeWine - both Brunner and Fisher have been on winning statewide ballots. The same can't be said for Yost. Being on a statewide ballot generates one heckuva lot of name ID that Yost wouldn't have had the ability to obtain considering the funds he had to work with. Thanks to that name ID, Brunner and Fisher currently are neck and neck. But my other point from above stands - Fisher's obnoxiously huge cash advantage will dominate this race, and Fisher will win due to Brunner's inability to communicate her message to the electorate.

Also, and this should be obvious, the game has changed for Yost. He's now raising the funds necessary - if I recall correctly, he raised 100k in his first week running for Auditor - and has secured the grassroots support necessary to take advantage of the very generous political environment. Yost will win.

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