Thursday, January 14, 2010

Breaking it Down: The 1/14 Rasmussen Ohio Senate Poll

Annnnd things keep getting worse for the Ohio Democrats.

Rasmussen's latest poll
strongly suggests Republican Rob Portman is in solid shape as he prepares to face off against the winner of the Fisher/Brunner primary.

The Topline
From just one month ago, Portman has more than doubled the lead he maintained over Dem frontrunner Lee Fisher. Now at 44-37, he's that much closer to that 50% magic threshold.

I'm sure much to the delight of progressives everywhere, this round of polling showed Brunner performs better than Fisher against Portman, losing 43-40.

Party ID
This is where it gets interesting. Once again, despite Brunner trying to run to the left of Fisher, she loses the liberal vote, getting 75% to Fisher's 82%. This trend highlights the difficulties facing Brunner. Despite doing everything she can from an earned media perspective to woo the far left base, it's not doing any good. And unfortunately for her, she doesn't have any money to convey her message. Without cash it's hard to see her changing this result all that much.

But the big number is once again Independents. While all candidates sufficiently appease their base, Portman wins big among the Indies. 47-22 against Fisher and 44-24 against Brunner.

Health Care
Following the national trend, Ohioans disapprove of Obamacare by a whopping 17 point margin. For reference, just one month ago disapproval was only up +2. Why is that significant? Among those that strongly oppose reform, Portman wins 77-4 versus Fisher and 73-5 against Brunner.

Ultimately, this is the second bad day in a row for Lee Fisher. Once again it was confirmed that he will have to spend what little cash he has on-hand to ensure victory over Jennifer Brunner. The bad news for Brunner? She doesn't have any money to put up a fight.

Portman is exactly where he needs to be. The base is secured. Independents overwhelmingly support him. And as his name recognition improves, so do his approval ratings.

Bonus Crosstab
As always, Rasmussen always adds in a question about the Governor's approval ratings.

Ted Strickland wishes he hadn't.

First, we learn that nearly 1/4 of self-identified liberals, 35% of African-Americans, and 40% of 18-29 year olds disapprove of Jello Ted. In other words, a good chunk of his base - those he should be able to count on - don't even approve of him.

Overall, his approval numbers got even worse, going from 48-50 just last month to 43-54 this month. I think it's safe to say my initial assessment of the budget deal and subsequent tax hike was correct - despite how the Governor and his allies spun it, it hurt him.

Usually Rasmussen sends out both the Ohio Senate and Guv polls within a day of eachother, so hopefully we'll learn those numbers tomorrow morning.

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