A little more than a year later, a Democrat lost by 5.
A 31 point swing.
What was Obama's margin in purple Ohio in 2008? 4 points.
So, if deep blue Massachusetts can swing 31 points, what are the chances purple Ohio can swing by 5?
Pretty. Damn. Good.
A fun, yet completely implausible, stat that I also noticed last night was this:
If all 435 House districts moved 31% like MA did, the next House would have 342 Rs (+164) & 93 Ds (-164).
You'll also recall some numbers I pulled from the PPP poll on Monday:
In the poll, PPP found that 20% of Obama voters are now voting for the Republican.This means that without a drastic change in the narrative of the race, it's with great likelihood that we'll see this scene at the Kasich Victory Party on 11.2.10.
If we translate that to Ohio's result in 2008, and have 20% of Obama's voters switch from Democrat to Republican, Obama goes from winning Ohio by four points to losing 57-41.
Now how about we give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, and cut that switch in half? Going from 20% switching to only 10% switching. In that scenario, McCain wins Ohio 52-46.