Wednesday, January 20, 2010

What does Massachusetts mean for Ohio?

In 2008, Obama won deep blue Massachusetts by 26 points.

A little more than a year later, a Democrat lost by 5.

A 31 point swing.

What was Obama's margin in purple Ohio in 2008? 4 points.

So, if deep blue Massachusetts can swing 31 points, what are the chances purple Ohio can swing by 5?

Pretty. Damn. Good.

A fun, yet completely implausible, stat that I also noticed last night was this:

If all 435 House districts moved 31% like MA did, the next House would have 342 Rs (+164) & 93 Ds (-164).


You'll also recall some numbers I pulled from the PPP poll on Monday:
In the poll, PPP found that 20% of Obama voters are now voting for the Republican.

If we translate that to Ohio's result in 2008, and have 20% of Obama's voters switch from Democrat to Republican, Obama goes from winning Ohio by four points to losing 57-41.

Now how about we give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, and cut that switch in half? Going from 20% switching to only 10% switching. In that scenario, McCain wins Ohio 52-46.
This means that without a drastic change in the narrative of the race, it's with great likelihood that we'll see this scene at the Kasich Victory Party on 11.2.10.


  1. Let's not forget that this was a special election. No one seems to be acknowledging the fact that the electorate is drastically different in a special election vs. the general in November... Most notably, it tends to be more educated and passionate about the candidates. This was a huge victory for the GOP, but it's not exactly applicable to November 2010.

  2. In a vacuum, I would tend to agree with you.

    However, this is Massachsetts, which Obama carried by 26 points just 14 months ago. Brown even carried Hyannis.

    Also, just two months ago, the VA and NJ Gov races went to the GOP, which had gone to Obama by 6 and 14 points respectively. To deny the trend is to deny reality.

    There are lessons to be learned from the MA Senate race, however it remains to be seen whether the Dems or the GOP make proper use of those lessons.


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