Sunday, January 24, 2010

The political realities of the Ohio Auditor's race...

As things stand right now, it seems Dave Yost is likely to make the jump into the Ohio Auditor's race. This creates a primary between him and Seth Morgan, and possibly Rob Montgomery.

Like I stated last week, all are strong candidates. But there are two overriding factors that Ohio Republicans must consider when deciding who to support in this race:

1) Who has the best chance to win in November?
2) Which nominee would enable the ORP to focus the least amount of manpower and cash in order to assure victory? (this is important because those resources are best served focusing on the Kasich/Portman races as well as any lower tier House/Senate races in highly competitive districts)

As I stated last week, I believe Dave Yost to be the best option to serve as the Party's nominee.

He's a conservative with a fantastic resume that's perfectly suited for a race like this. While he hasn't had much success in the fundraising department thanks to DeWine's powerhouse presence in the AG race, Yost has been working and developing the relationships necessary where money would flow in quick and fast if he moved over to the Auditor's gig. Additionally, he's the only one of these three that has already developed a statewide network of GOP activists working to promote his candidacy. In other words, switching to the Auditor's race wouldn't need near the start-up time that Morgan and Montgomery would require.

I talked to someone very close to the Dave Yost camp in an attempt to answer a couple important political questions about the race. First, how has the grassroots leadership committed to supporting your AG race reacted to the possible switch? Second, how has the network of contributors responded?

The answers:
Most of the leaders in Yost's organization have understood the difficulty of this situation and pledged to back his decision, no matter what is decided or whether he chooses for whichever race they are promoting. That advice has been pretty evenly split between go and stay. Nobody has abandoned ship.

The contributor base has encouraged Yost to run for Auditor. The ORP has helped in that regard. There is some grousing about money already raised for this race that Taylor took with her... but they're going to help.
Ultimately, the question is whether Seth Morgan sees the writing on the wall or not. While it's understandable that he wants to take advantage of the political climate, it's clear that Yost is the superior candidate. 1) He has served as County Auditor; 2) He will maintain his grassroots organization that he built over the past several months during his run for AG; and 3) With previous relationships already established and ORP backing, Yost will have fundraising superiority.

While Seth has his CPA license, there isn't much else going for him in the primary. And like Yost experienced vs. Mike DeWine, he won't raise the money necessary to make his case. He's young and very talented - and losing a primary right now would only damage his potential as a great member of the Ohio Republican farm team. Your time will come, Seth. It's just not now.

The fact is this - Yost as our nominee for Auditor will enable the ORP to focus more manpower and resources on Kasich, Portman, and other conservatives in competitive legislative districts.

Yost for Ohio Auditor helps elect conservatives.


  1. Yost, Morgan and Montgomery all seem to be about the same from an ideology standpoint. Yost has done a lot of the early leg work by traveling around the state. Morgan has suport from a lot of folks in SW Ohio and is a CPA. Montgomery has a lot more money and I assume much better name ID. Why the need to clear the deck for Yost? I am not convinced he would even win the primary.

  2. You know there are other issues surrounding Yost's entry into the Auditor primary that could make it difficult for him to win. The giant elephant in the room, which you continually ignore, is that he will be handing an uncontested path to the nomination for AG to Mike DeWine. People such as myself who supported him for AG and who support Seth Morgan for Auditor aren't going to shut up about that anytime soon.

    Mike DeWine will lose for AG. Republican voters who are concerned about his record on the Second Amendment will vote for Richard Cordray, who has a better record on the right to bear arms. By giving up on the AG race, Dave Yost is demonstrating that he's willing to bow down to the DeWine machine even if that means the party loses AG to Cordray. He shouldn't expect anyone to clear the Auditor's race for him just because he's clearing the AG's race for Mike DeWine.

    But since you're wondering, sources close to the Morgan campaign tell me that Rep. Morgan has no intention of dropping out if Yost enters the race. So I hope he's ready for a primary, in which he will again and again be labeled the DeWine candidate for Auditor.

  3. Carlos - No one on the Yost side is convinced he will win the primary, that's why they're so insistent that Morgan (and to a lesser extent Montgomery) should drop out "for the good of the party."

    My belief is that once Dave Yost kisses Kevin DeWine's ring, he stands no chance of winning the Auditor primary.

  4. I am from SW Ohio and had planned on voting for Yost in the AG primary and Morgan in the Auditor primary. If Yost moves over to auditor it will only change my vote in the AG primary to wrie-in or none of the above. Handing the odious Mike DeWine the AG nomination is a mistake - an unforgivable mistake.

  5. Statewide name ID will be about the same for each of these 3 gentlemen: next to none.

  6. Correct Anon, which is why Yost is best positioned to win. He will have both the money AND organization necessary to overcome the name ID issue.

    Nate, you don't seem to appreciate the importance of organization and $$$ in a race like this.

  7. This is clearly the ORP's way of making sure DeWine is on the ballot for AG, because they know he wouldn't win the primary against Yost. This is the kind of political game that has gotten the Republicans in trouble over the years. It's really frustrating to us registered Republicans when we don't get to choose who WE really want.

  8. Folks, what is really disturbing about all of this talk (and political speak in general these days) is that everyone overlooks the most important factor when deciding which candidate should be in office.....which candidate would be the best choice for the people and the office that is being represented. Call me a old fashioned, but I am sick and tired of hearing about which candidate has the best chance of winning due to their ability to raise money, name recognition, party loyalty, etc... Today's goal from politicians is to get elected and/or re-elected. Who care's what kind of job is being done, let's just keep our guy moving up the ladder (that is sarcasm, in case you couldn't tell). This country, and our state need leaders, not more politicians! I am a registered Republican, however I am completely disgusted with the system and both major parties. I will continue to vote for the person whom I believe is best for all, not a party. Please join me in thinking for yourself.


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