Monday, January 18, 2010

Can we win this?

As of last night, Intrade had Brown favored to win.


Merriman River Group, who had a realistic 34-17-48 Party ID split, had Brown up 9.

And late last night, PPP, a very well respected Democratic polling firm, had Brown up 51-46.

I was pessimistic we'd be able to pull this off until Saturday. But it's impossible to ignore the trends. Additionally, the last great hope for Coakley, the Obama event yesterday afternoon, failed to obtain the kind of over-the-top inspirational coverage Democrats were hoping for. Hell, the biggest story out of it was a heckler.

Right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say the actual margin is a little lower than PPP's five, and give Brown a 3-point win.

In frickin' Massachusetts.

I thought winning New Jersey in the fall was a big deal. And it was. But Massafrickinchusetts?

Crazy.

The best part of it all? Even if Brown does fail to win, this race has scared the living hell out of Democrats nationally.

There was one aspect of the PPP poll I'd like to use to ponder about Ohio's future in November. In the poll, PPP found that 20% of Obama voters are now voting for the Republican.

If we translate that to Ohio's result in 2008, and have 20% of Obama's voters switch from Democrat to Republican, Obama goes from winning Ohio by four points to losing 57-41.

Now how about we give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, and cut that switch in half? Going from 20% switching to only 10% switching. In that scenario, McCain wins Ohio 52-46.

If deep blue Massachusetts voters are leaving the President's Party at a rate of 20%, I think it's fair to say Ted Strickland has quite a bit to worry about in purple Ohio.

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