Wednesday, January 6, 2010

That Massachusetts Senate Race

Conservatives are all up in a tizzy with hopes that Scott Brown can somehow beat Martha Coakley in the special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

The latest Rasmussen poll had Coakley up by 9 in the drastically liberal state. Pretty amazing.

But two aspects of the crosstabs stood out to me.

Self-described Republicans and Conservatives disapprove of Brown by only 4% and 7%, respectively.

And yet, 24% of Republicans are voting for Coakley and 25% of Conservatives are going for the liberal. For comparison's sake, in the most recent Rasmussen poll on the Ohio Guv race, only 4% of Republicans are voting for Strickland and only 16% of Conservatives.

Why? Great question. It's so good that I'm not really sure of the answer. Most likely, it's due to the fact that they don't know enough about the guy. His star has flashed brightly and quickly, and it takes time for voters to digest enough about a candidate before they can commit to supporting him, especially in a unique race such as this.

If Brown wants to maintain any hope that he can win this thing, he needs to drastically improve those numbers in his own base, no matter how small it is up in Taxachusetts

1 comment:

  1. That analysis is probably correct. Conservatives and Republicans don't truly know their man yet. Also, maybe a percentage of those Republicans/Conservatives do business at the statehouse or with the state at large and feel they need to vote with the winner. It's kind of like they do so only b/c they almost feel they must jump on thwe winner's bandwagon. But-- if they sense a chance for Brown or if there is blood in the water that will rally those same voters back to Brown. Same here in Ohio. Blackwell was a dead duck in 2006 and therefore many who lean conservative or Republican voted with the winner. Now it is Strickland squirming...let's see if there are liberal/moderates who are disgusted and vote Kasich if the writing is on the wall.


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