Boehner must stay as GOP House Leader

If for no other reason than this quote:

"Now, listen, I've voted 'present' two or three times in my entire 25-year political career, where there might have been a conflict of interest and I didn't feel like I should vote," Boehner said. "In Congress, we have a red button, a green button and a yellow button, alright. Green means 'yes,' red means 'no,' and yellow means you're a chicken shit. And the last thing we need in the White House, in the oval office, behind that big desk, is some chickenshit who wants to push this yellow button."

What's he talking about? The fact that Obama voted 'present' 129 times as a State Senator in Illinois. Now if you click on my link above from factcheck, they go on to tell you he voted present only 3% of the time. That may be true, but these 'present' votes weren't for just anything. They were for very serious legislation. For example:

"...in 1997, Obama voted "present" on two bills (HB 382 and SB 230) that would have prohibited a procedure often referred to as partial birth abortion. He also voted "present" on SB 71, which lowered the first offense of carrying a concealed weapon from a felony to a misdemeanor and raised the penalty of subsequent offenses.

In 1999, Obama voted "present" on SB 759, a bill that required mandatory adult prosecution for firing a gun on or near school grounds. The bill passed the state Senate 52-1. Also in 1999, Obama voted "present" on HB 854 that protected the privacy of sex-abuse victims by allowing petitions to have the trial records sealed. He was the only member to not support the bill."

It goes on and on if you'd like to see a bit more.

What a chickenshit.

100 bucks he says 'pump you up'...

Here's a report from 3BP reporter Duke Buck who is stuck at work in Columbus, Ohio and conveniently placed in the line of sight of the gigantic Ahnuld/McCain rally set for early this evening at Nationwide Arena.

"It could easily be mistaken for a stop on the American Idols tour or summer concert, but it's the McCain-Palin rally at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH. Even though doors didn't open till 3 pm and the show doesn't officially start till 5 pm, lines were wrapping around the stadium at around 2 o'clock. The media trucks were lined up like so many ducks in a row, with their satellite dishes and antennas aplenty. Music was blaring and it looked like a good time was being had in the festive atmosphere, as media types crawled the line for interviews and button sellers hawked their wares."

When I was at McCain HQ in Columbus earlier this week they were hoping to fill all 25,000 seats. Methinks they are gonna top it. Easily.

What a drag.

We here at Third Base Politics been hearing many stories lately of Sarah Palin being a drag on the GOP ticket.

Really?

Today both Biden and Palin visited Williamsport, PA. Only one left a star. From WNEP in Williamsport:

"It all started around 2 p.m. at Lycoming College's Lamade Gymnasium on Mulberry Street. Several hundred people packed the gym for a opportunity to show their support for the Obama - Biden ticket.

...

As Biden was speaking at Lycoming College, Republicans were filing into Bowman Field, just a few miles away. That's where Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will speak at about 7 p.m. At least 10,000 tickets have been given out to see the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin."

Further evidence can be seen in things as trivial as state poll results. For example, from the Strategic Vision Pennsylvania poll released today:

"The poll showed that 49% viewed Barack Obama favorably with 41% viewing him unfavorably; and 10% undecided. Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 47% of respondents with 39% viewing him unfavorably; and 14% undecided. John McCain was viewed favorably by 49% of respondents with 40% viewing him unfavorably; and 11% undecided. Sarah Palin was viewed favorably by 48% of respondents with 40% viewing her unfavorably; and 12% undecided."

So not only does Sarah have no noticeable variation of approval rating in the most important swing state in the country, but she draws crowds monumentally larger than her Democratic rival.

How could this possibly be perceived to be a drag?

In reality, the number of voters she draws to these rallies cannot be understated. Many casual observers may look at political rallies just as simple events meant to put on a good show for the media and the general public. In fact, rallies are intended to be as much for getting out the vote as they are for communicating message. Think about it...are people that are inspired to attend rallies more or less likely to go vote on Nov4? Unquestionably the answer is more likely. So when Sarah Palin is drawing 20,000 to 800 for Lonely Joe, which VP candidate really is the drag in an election that relies so much upon GOTV?

The McCain Campaign: Smarter Than We Thought

McCain Campaign Chair Rick Davis, per Politico:

"'In the last ten days of this campaign McCain will outspend Barack Obama on television,'" Davis said. He said McCain would air a direct-to-camera ad talking about how he's always put his country first."

Now let's take this further. Not only is McCain outspending Obama by $10 million, but this investment is going into fewer states than Obama, thereby increasing their effect. For example, McCain using this cash advantage in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia is more effective for his campaign than Obama spending his funds in several states where he feels he can win. However, I would recommend some skepticism until we see an analysis from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. These guys do a good job of analyzing what is spent where.

However, if this is in fact true, then the McCain campaign is particularly brilliant considering this study recently released that deduces the following:

"Recent studies of campaign advertising typically assess the response of voters to advertisements only from the last few weeks before the voter is interviewed. In so doing, they implicitly assume that the effects of advertisements decay over time. This paper attempts an explicit estimate of the rate of this decay for the Annenberg survey of voters in the 2000 election. Our results indicate that decay is fairly rapid. Even when the persuasive effect of ads on candidate preference is large, 50 to 75 percent of the effect dissipates within the first week and almost all is gone by the end of the second week. Along with other recent evidence, this tentative finding undermines the view that American voters are persuaded by information that accumulates during long campaigns and suggests instead the importance of tactical maneuvers by candidates to dominate the airwaves at the very end of campaigns."

In other words, the McCain campaign is dominating the airwaves at a time where swing voters are most vulnerable to influence. After the recent tightening of the polls it may be just what is needed to win this thing.

Today we found out that The Economist, of ALL magazines, is endorsing Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States. This would be downright depressing if some of their reasons weren't so laughable:

"Is Mr Obama any better? Most of the hoopla about him has been about what he is, rather than what he would do. His identity is not as irrelevant as it sounds. Merely by becoming president, he would dispel many of the myths built up about America: it would be far harder for the spreaders of hate in the Islamic world to denounce the Great Satan if it were led by a black man whose middle name is Hussein."

The magazine may have a point. With a Hussein in the White House will our enemies really start thinking better of us? Now, with the help of our friend Punster, we can imagine what a Hussein presidency will mean for Al-Qaeda:

Osama: "We will hunt the Great Satan and drive him from our lands. We will..."

Osama's advisor: "Excuse me, oh exalted one, but you can no longer call them the Great Satan."

Osama: "Why not?"

Osama's advisor: "Their President's middle name is Hussein."

Osama: "You're shittin' me."

Osama's advisor: "No. It's true. Barack Hussein Obama. That's his name."

Osama: "Well that's just great! Why didn't anyone tell me? Why didn't anyone send me a memo about this? I've been living in an f***'n' cave, plotting out their demise, and NOW you tell me their President's middle name is Hussein? F***!"

Osama's advisor: "You could call them the Great Annoyance."

Osama: "Oh, now I'm supposed to foster anger and resentment against the Great Annoyance? For shit's sake, it makes it sound like they are going to give us all wet willies or something. What am I paying you people for anyway?"

Osama's advisor: "Um, about that oh exalted one..."

Osama: "Shut it."

Foxy!

First the AP, then Rasmussen, now Fox.... Obama 47, McCain 44.

That's down from 9 pts 1 week ago.

Now I've always been of the persuasion that the casual political observer should only bother looking at state polls. However, these polls must be considered newsworthy for a couple reasons:

1) As Rove stated in his article in the WSJ today:

"Through yesterday, there have been 728 national polls with head-to-head matchups of the candidates, 215 in October alone. In 2004, there were just 239 matchup polls, with 67 of those in October. At this rate, there may be almost as many national polls in October of 2008 as there were during the entire year in 2004."

National polls have alone become a story in this election cycle. Not necessarily as a tool for determining a true leader, but in making actual news stories about individual candidates. As in, with this trend of polls the story becomes "McCain is making another of his trademark comebacks" and that is a big positive going into the final weekend.

2) We won't really have anymore reliable state polling data as we head into the weekend. Since state polls tend to lag a day or two afterwards, this is all we pretty much have to go on. Once again, the trend shows continued tightening and that's good going into the weekend.

Zing!

Wow.

"Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine."

"[There's been] genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis."

-Barack Obama, LA Times/Khalidi tape

Honestly, I hope this report is wrong. Obama likely will win next Tuesday and I can't imagine someone capable of uttering such vomitous language being elected President. In fact, the person who released these quotes has provided accurate insider information about the LA Times earlier in this campaign cycle.

So since all the votes haven't been counted yet....LET 'ER RIP!

Get this transcript out there and let Obama refute it. I want surrogates discussing it. I want columns written about it. I want bloggers obsessing over it.

Bring. Him. Down.

UPDATE: Contact the Los Angeles County Republican Party. Encourage them to quickly organize a protest outside of the HQ of the Los Angeles Times. Contact: (323) 215-4505

Or call the LA Times direct: (213) 237-5000; or e-mail via their website.

Travel Day

3BP is on the road back to DC from Columbus, Ohio. Obsessive blogging will return this evening. Try to contain yourselves.

Cat Fight

It seems much of the aggression towards Sarah Palin comes more from women than men. Why is that? Afterall, she's a feminist in the truest sense of the word...a woman who by her own abilities has risen to the top. Unfortunately, many don't see it that way...except this current Democrat and former editor-in-chief of Ms. magazine:

"Palin is being pilloried by the inside-the-Beltway Democrat feminist establishment. (Yes, she is anti-abortion. And yes, instead of buying organic New Zealand lamb at Whole Foods, she joins other Alaskans in hunting for food. That's it. She is not a right-wing nut, and all the rest of the Internet drivel—the book banning at the Library, the rape kits decision—is nonsense. I digress.) Palin's role in this campaign was to energize “the Republican base,” which she has inarguably done. She also was expected to reach out to Hillary Clinton “moderates.” (Right. Only a woman would get both those jobs in either party.) Look, I am obviously personally pro-choice, and I disagree with McCain and Palin on that and a few other issues. But like many other Democrats, including Lynn Rothschild, I'm tired of the Democratic Party taking women for granted. I also happen to believe Sarah Palin supports women's rights, deeply and passionately."

Video: Obama 1995 - “Reverend Wright Represents The Best Of What The Black Church Has To Offer”

Since I suck at editing videos will someone please edit together Wright's "God Damn America" speech and this little quote of frightning and altogether rare truthfulness. Please. PLEASE?!?!?!



h/t: Patriot Room

Fourth Park Bench from the Corner, Columbus, OH 43215

Move over ACORN, Ohio has found a new champion for election fraud:

"COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - A federal judge in Ohio has ruled that counties must allow homeless voters to list park benches and other locations that aren't buildings as their addresses."

Round up all the homeless you can! It's gonna be a votin' spree!

Ya know, Halloween is just around the corner. Let's see how many socialist Ohioans, or any liberals near Ohio for that matter, dress like a homeless person and stroll into 4 or 5 voting locations in the State with different hobo names (like Hobo Pete, Corn Cob Jones, and Election Fraud Tommy), use several different "addresses" and cast a few votes for their favorite deity, the Obamessiah.

I cannot wait to see what they allow as an "address" in 2012. I suggest you list your car, an Amtrack train, or even your FedEx package as your address....so you'll be sure to vote wherever you are needed.

I for one am going to list my dog as my address for that election, so I can vote in any state I bring him to. But make sure you don't get carpal tunnel filling out all those ballots! Happy voting.

Your cheatin' heart...

Many of you have been watching Greta's show on Fox in the run up to the election. If so, you've seen a lot of focus on the mess that is voting in Ohio. Our friends at Palestra have done a great job of investigating the election fraud that Democrats are committing in the Buckeye state. Lately, they've been tracking down Obama campaign employees who may have voted in Ohio but aren't legal residents. These folks are just working in Ohio for a couple months then heading straight back home on November 5th. Palestra nailed about a dozen of them last week. These folks pulled their votes and the Obama campaign said they were advising others about the law... but when Palestra checked with other counties they found no one who had pulled any votes from any counties other than...yep, you guessed it...Franklin and Knox County...the exact places where Palestra called them out. So basically, it looks like tObama employees will pull their votes if Palestra/Fox News identifies them...but that's it.

Who are these guys? Well how about Zachary Cafritz?

Zachary Cafritz is the son of Washington, D.C. real estate developer, Conrad Cafritz, and who's who A-lister, Peggy Cooper Cafritz. His grandfather, Morris, helped shape the capital as we know it. Morris Cafritz became one of Washington's leading residential and commercial real estate magnates in the early 1920s. Since then, the Cafritz clan has stapled themselves into Washington's elite social scene.

...

Washington, D.C. voter registration records show Zachary registered to vote in 2003 and last voted during the Potomac Primaries, February 12, 2008. Status listed: Active. Party Affilliation: Democrat.

Zachary's new home and his family legacy link him to our nation's capital. But in the 2008 General Election, Zachary voted in Ohio.

According to Franklin County records, Zachary registered to vote September 9, 2008. He went to Veterans Memorial polling place and cast an early absentee ballot on October 4. Zachary registered using the address: 345 N Ardmore Road, Columbus, Ohio. However, the Franklin County auditor's records show this property belongs to Gerard Charles and Catherine Yoshimura.

Our friends at Palestra are working hard to expose even more of these frauds. They have the FEC records on hand. All they have to do is match up the Obama employees with registration records here in Ohio. It's tedious work, but someone has to do it...even if it's not the mainstream media.

The warning is out, fake Buckeyes. Pull your registration now....or get exposed. And not in a sexy way.

The Ground Game

Sorry for the lack of posting as of late. I've been on the ground here in Ohio helping the McCain campaign and the congressional campaign of State Sen. Steve Stivers. Stivers is locked in a close contest with Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy for the 15th Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Deborah Pryce.

In fact, I'm currently drafting this post from Stivers HQ and things are bustling. GOTV phone calls are in full force and some folks are getting ready to go knock on some doors here in a little bit. A big help to the Stivers campaign has been the influx of volunteers from 'Team Ohio'...a large group of former Ohioans who now live in DC and took some time off to come home and join the fight. They are circumventing the state in Winnebagos(no....seriously) and are stopping off to help however they can.

For those who have never volunteered on a campaign, it's always an experience. I've attached a pic to this post of Stivers HQ and that will give you an idea of how ridiculous things are with 8 days to go. Everyone is on the phones or in the field. The campaign office is a mess....and if it isn't you aren't doing something right.

McCain's office was doing reasonably well. It doesn't seem to have the same sense of aggressiveness as I felt helping W in '00 and '04, but they're smart and are doing everything they can to finish strong. Palin will be in Chillicothe, Ohio on Wednesday and McCain will be having a HUGE rally at Nationwide Arena in Columbus on Friday with Schwarznegger. They need 25,000 to fill the place...so for you Ohioans, get off your butt and show your support.

So here we are. Eight days left. The polls are violently all over the place. And the GOP GOTV effort is as intense as ever.

One thing is for sure, if things don't go well for Republicans on Nov4, it won't be for lack of effort.

3BP is off to fight the good fight

We're headed out to the great state of Ohio to kick some ass and rip out whatever dignity was left in Obama, Mary Jo Kilroy and most importantly...the Nittany Lions.

3BP will be giving sporadic reports from the campaign trail as we head home to the Buckeye state.

Keep a look out.

Where in the hell have they been....33 and a 1/3...

3BP continues our review of the Tour de McCainobamACORN!!!

In review...in order to determine where the candidates think this race will be won, we have to review two things...1) where the money is going and 2) where the candidates are going. Since others are taking it upon themselves to follow the money, I'll focus on following the candidates.

For our purposes, we'll worry less about the dates the candidates travelled and more about quantity of days spent and where they were. Oftentimes candidates had more than one rally in a state, and in those instances time in the state was only counted once (provided it was all on the same day). So as you read our listing below, each time a state is listed that means one day spent there by the candidate. Time spent in non-swing states for non-media purposes(such as fundraising) is not counted. Tracking continues this week beginning on Tuesday, October 21st through today...Friday, October 24th. The data is obtained via Mark Halperin's daily blog.

As you'll recall from last time, the two sides were both running pretty solidly offense versus defense. The Dems had been able to focus all their energy on states they DON'T need to win. McCain/Palin, on the other hand, needed to maintain most of their focus on defending the red states.

So onto the board...

Obama: FL, VA, IN
Biden: CO(x 2), NC, WV

McCain: PA, NH, OH, FL, CO
Palin: NV, OH(x 2), PA, MO

Well what have we learned this time. First off, remember Biden was put in the timeout box by his boss for one day for his repeated slip-ups. Also, Obama took Thursday and Friday off in order to head to Hawaii to hang with his hip Grandma. Sooo because of that we don't get as much data as our last review from the Dems. With that being said we can tell Obama is a cocky SOB...of course, that's nothing new. But having Biden visit West Virginia? Seriously. What a waste of time. But once again, Obama is all offense. And for the first time in this review, they aren't back defending PA. Biden was sent to hit up Colorado. A good move. That's closer than many seem to think.

As for McCain/Palin...it's been a very aggressive 4 days. Nevada and Colorado finally got some more attention. Hopefully that wraps up Nevada and we don't have to go back. The PA offensive does continue. As has been widely reported, this is being hailed as McCain's last desperate attempt to win in case he loses Virginia, Ohio or Colorado. I'm still not sure I buy it...but as I've said before, the time/money they've spent there the last couple weeks shows they see something we don't. And someon...please....tell McCain to quit going to NH.

'Til next time.

Duck season! Wabbit Season!

The McCain campaign needs a new angle...a stunt, if you will, that can hit home with a good chunk of the swing vote electorate in many of the remaining vital states...namely Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana.

In particular, there seems to be an untapped group of voters that need to see something new and different than the usual campaign rally they may catch on their local news. These people may be "D" on the lunch pail economic stuff. They may be pro-union and anti-NAFTA. Economically they are probably working class with a few middle class thrown in. And while they aren't card carrying members of the NRA, they do like to do one thing...

Hunt.

US Fish and Wildlife statistics place the number of hunters and fisherman at around 42.5 million. They may be somewhat indifferent to some of the social issues like abortion and gay marriage. They're likely pro-military...but could be tiring of the war effort thanks to the media's constant negativity. They are not, however, ready to endorse Obama. In fact, in a survey of hunters back in August, McCain only led 45% to 31%. There is plenty of reason to think this gap has closed since then. It's time to widen it back up.

So, let's go hunting.

Starting tomorrow it's pheasant hunting season in Pennsylvania. So let's make it an event. The Gov is already scheduled to be in Shippensburg, PA on Oct. 28th. Before the rally get Sarah out in the field with some 'Joe the Hunters'. I'm sure there are plenty of local campaign volunteers that hunt and would be happy to lead Mrs. Palin on a short pheasant massacre. Bring along a few press. Get some good shots of her with a gun and some bird dogs. Remind folks why they initially identified with her, before the media savaged her and her family.

Concerned with the image of her actually shooting pheasants or maybe missing and coming up empty? Fine. It's currently bow-only deer hunting season in PA. Stop by the deer-check station and, as my friend Amy suggests, show she's supporting hunting without actually killing something herself..."that's a nice deer there, Joe. Have any venison jerky around?" Maybe even the suburbanites will be happy to see Sarah supports getting rid of surplus Bambis.

McCain isn't a hunter and putting him out there would be no different than Kerry in 2004. But Sarah is different. She has a history of hunting and has embraced the tradition in Alaska. The event can be framed as Sarah getting a chance to take a short break from the long campaign trail and embracing a common recreational tradition that Alaska shares with much of middle America.

Make it happen, Steve Schmidt.

(Special thanks to Banff Buckeye for his work in developing this idea)

Laying it all out there...

Charles Krauthamer is at his best when he avoids discussing political strategy and sticks to the issues...and that's what he does here in the most well stated column I've seen yet regarding the choice this electorate faces on Nov4. Below are some highlights, but I can't stress how important it is that you read the whole thing, and share it with every undecided voter you know.

"I'll have no truck with the phony case ginned up to rationalize voting for the most liberal and inexperienced presidential nominee in living memory. The "erratic" temperament issue, for example. As if McCain's risky and unsuccessful but in no way irrational attempt to tactically maneuver his way through the economic tsunami that came crashing down a month ago renders unfit for office a man who demonstrated the most admirable equanimity and courage in the face of unimaginable pressures as a prisoner of war, and who later steadily navigated innumerable challenges and setbacks, not the least of which was the collapse of his campaign just a year ago.

McCain the "erratic" is a cheap Obama talking point. The 40-year record testifies to McCain the stalwart.

Nor will I countenance the "dirty campaign" pretense. The double standard here is stunning. Obama ran a scurrilous Spanish-language ad falsely associating McCain with anti-Hispanic slurs. Another ad falsely claimed that McCain supports "cutting Social Security benefits in half." And for months Democrats insisted that McCain sought 100 years of war in Iraq.

...

There's just no comparison. Obama's own running mate warned this week that Obama's youth and inexperience will invite a crisis -- indeed a crisis "generated" precisely to test him. Can you be serious about national security and vote on Nov. 4 to invite that test?

And how will he pass it? Well, how has he fared on the only two significant foreign policy tests he has faced since he's been in the Senate? The first was the surge. Obama failed spectacularly. He not only opposed it. He tried to denigrate it, stop it and, finally, deny its success.

The second test was Georgia, to which Obama responded instinctively with evenhanded moral equivalence, urging restraint on both sides. McCain did not have to consult his advisers to instantly identify the aggressor.

Today's economic crisis, like every other in our history, will in time pass. But the barbarians will still be at the gates. Whom do you want on the parapet? I'm for the guy who can tell the lion from the lamb."

Happy Halloween, kiddos...

We're totally getting schnookered...

How much of this shit do people have to hear before they understand that we're getting hoodwinked by a low-life? The answer: It doesn't matter. My liberal officemate's response to this article? "It's nothing Republicans wouldn't do."

I know. I work with idiots.

But the fact is, Obama supporters are so overcome with a desire to win that they are willing to throw away any principle necessary. They are an electorate obsessed with false equivalency. But I digress...

From Ace of Spades:

"John Galt of Ayn Rand Lane (zip code: a nonexistent 99999) was able to donate [to Obama's campaign through his web site] with no problem.

Despite the fact that the card holder's name and address do not match the name he provided.

John McCain's website? Rejected the same non-matching-information donation.

I guess when you're gathering up tens of millions from the Saudis and Gazans you have to be a little lenient on matching up credit card donations.

Incidentally— when I fucking order cheesesteaks from my local deli, I get dinged when I forget my current zip code and give them my old one.

Again, though: If Obama were demanding that credit card information matched donor information, he couldn't draw in $150 million largely from fraudulent overseas donors.

Anyone see a pattern? Jennifer Brunner isn't bothered by "voters" with non-matchable information casting votes; Barack Obama doesn't take the most basic safeguard of ensuring that a donor's information matches the information on his credit card.

Try buying something anywhere with a credit card. You check to see if you can get away with entering false information about your name and address.

An automated check bounces all such attempts. Unless this safeguard has been specifically disabled.

And why would anyone do that?

I just can't think of a single reason."

"Grab your ankles..."

Jim Treacher was able to capture Biden's clarification of his earlier remarks now made famous by the medi...er, McCain campaign.

"I gotta tell ya, when this great man, this fantastic young African-American kid who I'm proud to call my closest friend, when he becomes president, the American people need to know that you are all gonna be grabbin' your ankles every April 15 for the rest of your probably-shortened lives.

"I mean, the taxes, they're gonna be unbelievable. Holy f***. So we'll need your help with that. You're gonna have to pay 'em. There's no way we can repel a full-scale nationwide tax revolt without resorting to nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, at least in the scenarios they've shown me, so we're countin' on you to do the right thing.

"And I'd say to America, this land that I love: You've all seen what an agent of change Barack Obama is. He's brought together people from all walks of life. He's inspired every single person in this country, no matter who you are or what you look like or even if you're into, y'know, the funny stuff. [chuckle] Which is gonna be a great comfort when the Obama administration strangles the U.S. economy and sets off a long, terrifying race war.

"It is gonna suck beyond anything you could ever imagine. I'm not even kidding. I have a great fondness and admiration for the African-American people, I think they've done some great work over the years, but when push comes to shove, I know which side I'm on. You follow me?"

'Atta boy.

h/t: http://republicangazette.com

Might as well get a headstart on 2010...

Yep. 3BP is proud to be the first* blog to endorse John Kasich for Governor of the great State of Ohio. The election may be two years away....but who cares if politics is all about timing?

Our disgustingly amateur 3BP artists spent weeks** designing the above bumper sticker and made it available for your purchase at the 3BP store at cafepress. Get yours today. Or something.







* - there is absolutely no documented evidence of this claim. So shut it.
** - This is a lie.

The Message

We've been hearing it for over a week now. And we need to keep hearing it.

"My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody. If you’ve got a plumbing business, you’re gonna be better off if you’re gonna be better off if you’ve got a whole bunch of customers who can afford to hire you, and right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody."

How does that work? It goes a little something like this:

Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy with a sign that read "Vote Obama, I need the money." I laughed.

Once in the restaurant my server had on a "Obama 08" tie, again I laughed--just imagine the coincidence.

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need--the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight.

I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn, even though the actual recipient deserved money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

Climb off the edge, people.

I've been getting quite a few emails about the 'Palin/Jindal' poster below. My apologies for shaking the will of the faithful. To be clear, this thing isn't over.

Not yet.

Don't want to take my word for it? Try the brains behind the National Review, Rich Lowry.

"I have no special knowledge of Pennsylvania politics, but it seems very unlikely that McCain can win there. Maybe internal polls show it differently, but Obama leads by 8-15 points in the latest state polls according to RCP. The more viable scenario would appear to be holding the states Bush won both in 2000 and 2004. This is difficult and leaves no margin for error, but not impossible. In polling from the last two days, McCain is ahead by 1 or behind by 1 in Florida; he's behind by 2 in Virginia; he's behind by 3, by 1, or tied in North Carolina; he's tied in Nevada. If McCain can close the national gap with Obama, it's possible that all these kind of red states could narrowly fall his way. That would leave Colorado as perhaps the hardest-to-get red state and potentially the pivot of the election. A poll yesterday had McCain behind by 5 there, suggesting it's a tough nut to crack but not utterly out of reach. I'd be inclined to pour it on in Colorado rather than Pennsylvania, and attempt to thread the red-state electoral needle."

Now, I'll admit this scenario is awfully similar to the one I was pushing back in August...let's just say I'm glad everyone is finally on board. ;-)

The Left's Big Wheel o' Rebuttal!!!

Here is a little tool to help prepare you for your next argument with an Obamamaniac. Use it wisely.

Props to my friends Hutch and the 'Duck for this little concoction.

ACK!!! THPTHH!!!

SOMEONE GET SLEEVES ON THIS WOMAN! QUICK!!!

Get those nasty Buggers!

Orson Scott Card does more than write great fiction. He also knows how to make one helluva good point.

"If you want to redeem your honor, you will swallow hard and make a list of all the stories you would print if it were McCain who had been getting money from Fannie Mae, McCain whose campaign had consulted with its discredited former CEO, McCain who had voted against tightening its lending practices.

Then you will print them, even though every one of those true stories will point the finger of blame at the reckless Democratic Party, which put our nation's prosperity at risk so they could feel good about helping the poor, and lay a fair share of the blame at Obama's door.

You will also tell the truth about John McCain: that he tried, as a Senator, to do what it took to prevent this crisis. You will tell the truth about President Bush: that his administration tried more than once to get Congress to regulate lending in a responsible way.

This was a Congress-caused crisis, beginning during the Clinton administration, with Democrats leading the way into the crisis and blocking every effort to get out of it in a timely fashion.

If you at our local daily newspaper continue to let Americans believe — and vote as if — President Bush and the Republicans caused the crisis, then you are joining in that lie."

Be the first on your block....

A call to arms....and legs...and phones...

Virginia is a must-win state. No ifs, ands or buts.

With that being said, this is not good news.

Yep. Per Rasmussen, a reasonably reliable poll, McCain is down 10.

So for all those that live in and around DC that view this blog...if you haven't done so yet, contact the State HQ to see what you can do to help the effort.

Volunteer coordinator: nmeads@rnchq.org

UPDATE: Step off the ledge everyone(including me). Survey USA has us only down 6 in VA. We're still in it!

Where in the hell have they been?...Part Deux

It's time for a Tour de McCainobamacorn sequel.

Here is a quick review of what we're doing...

In order to determine where the candidates think this race will be won, we have to review two things...1) where the money is going and 2) where the candidates are going. Since others are taking it upon themselves to follow the money, I'll focus on following the candidates.

For our purposes, we'll worry less about the dates the candidates travelled and more about quantity of days spent and where they were. Oftentimes candidates had more than one rally in a state, and in those instances time in the state was only counted once (provided it was all on the same day). So as you read our listing below, each time a state is listed that means one day spent there by the candidate. Time spent in non-swing states for non-media purposes(such as fundraising) is not counted. Tracking continues this week beginning on Thursday, October 16th through today...Monday, October 20th. The data is obtained via Mark Halperin's daily blog.

As you'll recall from our last review, McCain/Palin were conducting quite a bit of defense with some surprising offense. There also was a severe lack of visitation to CO and NV, two states which have been trending towards Obama but are absolutely required for McCain if he intends to win this thing. Obama/Biden were mostly on the offensive, but were spending some time in PA and NH indicating a concern. The focus by both campaigns on PA seemed interesting based on the public polling we've seen. This infers internal polling in both camps shows the race closer than we may see it.

But enough of this...let's take a look at where the hell they've been.

Obama: NH, VA, MO, NC, FL
Biden: NM, NV

What do we learn from this strategy? Well, it's pretty straightforward. Obama is virtually ALL offense. The only events one can see as defensive are NH, NM and WA. The rest of these events focused entirely on must-win states for McCain...MO, NV, VA, NC and FL. In particular, VA, NC and FL are going to be interesting states to watch. These east coast states will be among the first to announce their results on election night. If any of them go down, it's over.

McCain: PA(x 2), FL, NC, VA, OH, MO
Palin: ME, NC, OH, IN, PA, NM, CO, NV

McCain/Palin hit the trail pretty intensely these past few days...and for the most part, hit all the right states. Once again, PA was a focus of both campaigns. Considering no public poll has been within 10 points since the end of September I can't say I totally get this strategy. Maybe it's some internal poll...but take a look...this doesn't exactly inspire optimism. Of course, neither does this.

It's unfortunate any time needs to be spent in NC or IN. Those should be completely secure, but since they are not I'm glad to see time being spent there. But what makes me happy is that Palin is finally being allowed to go out to CO and NV today. The campaign has ignored those states much too long and the CO polls have shown a widening gap favoring Obama. I imagine Palin plays well to Colorado constituents, so hopefully that will help things out a bit.

That's all for now. Stay tuned for more updates...

Swing and a miss...

McCain is consistently missing opportunities to hammer Obama by using one of his greatest assets...Sarah Palin. One of the reasons I was pushing for her back in April among my political friends here in DC was that her comparable years in government to Obama would only highlight his inexperience. The difference being she had actually accomplished something. Alas...

But I digress...tonight's miss was a big one. The Late Show.

Letterman was hammering McCain on Palin...saying in times this difficult...with war and a tough economy...is someone that inexperienced someone we can trust to lead us?

While McCain defended his running mate well, he should have gone through another person's inexperienced resume....Barack Obama's.

"Dave, you seem hesitant about a woman who has successfully ran the executive branch in one of America's great states...but what you aren't questioning, Dave, are the abilities of a man whose only experience is as a community organizer with ACORN, as a State Senator as recently as 2005, and in a single term in the US Senate where he hasn't even held one hearing on Afghanistan in the only committee he's had an opportunity to lead. You worry about having someone inexperienced in the White House? I've got a name for you. Barack Obama. And THAT is what should make you nervous, Dave."

Kill, baby, kill

Some of you may appreciate some background on what law Obama was exactly referring to tonight in his defense of supporting a law that ok'd killing babies. From the Weekly Standard:

Questioned about his vote against the born-alive infants protection act, Obama said: "There was already a law on the books that required lifesaving treatment, which is why ... I voted against it." Obama and his colleagues never cited this law as a reason for opposing the bill in the Illinois Senate. More importantly, that 1975 law only protected "viable" infants--and left the determination of viability up to the abortionist who had just failed to kill the baby in utero.

[The 1975 law states:]
"Viability" means that stage of fetal development when, in the medical judgment of the attending physician based on the particular facts of the case before him, there is a reasonable likelihood of sustained survival of the fetus outside the womb, with or without artificial support.

Headbutts in Hempstead!!!

3BP is back for another round! We're blogging from a hotel bar in Denver tonight. The view, or lack thereof, is the pic to your right. Yep. It sucks. I have a 60 year old woman to my right who claims to be part of "the media" and decided to cover the debate from this establishment. I'm pretty sure she's insane.

So what are we in for tonight? Great question. The first 3 debates went pretty much as we predicted. Some fireworks...and a lot of boring.

Sarah did well. Obama did enough. McCain never really attacked.

Well 3BP is ready to see what happens tonight. The state polls are closer than the media seems to want to discuss and pessimism is rampant. If McCain doesn't effectively bring up BAIPA, Ayers and Fannie Mae tonight I think I may have to join those ranks of the depressed.

As you saw before, the most recent updates will come at the top of this post. Keep hitting refresh as we'll be moving pretty fast....provided the beer flows, my internet connection survives and I don't get beat up by a Colorado hippie.

Let's get it on.
==============

Conclusion: Focus groups will say Obama won. They'd be right. He was more eloquent and knocked down enough of McCain's hits. But what's important out of this debate is not the debate itself, it's what the mainstream media will now be forced to discuss...namely, BAIPA, Acorn, Ayers and Joe "Spread the Wealth" the Plumber. These are ALL good issues for McCain. If these issues can maintain a presence in the media it will benefit McCain. The question is how these issues play against the issue of Obama inevitability.

Either way, I really hope we see Joe the Plumber in a campaign commercial DAMN soon. Thanks to everyone who followed along. This was the most widely viewed liveblog yet....and I'm glad I don't have to do it again.

10:30 - Nothing unexpected from Obama. I'm going to spend a lot of your cash and cut the budget. We know only half of that is true.

10:29 - Great final words by McCain....if you read them. His eloquence is, as we all know, severely lacking.

10:25 - Obama just lied. The DC Super supports vouchers.

10:24 - Addressing autism speaks to a lot more people than many think.

10:23 - McCain is right about NCLB. But that is a debate for another time...on this blog, at least.

10:21 - Obama doubled the number of charter schools in Illinois? As a State Senator? Seriously?

10:20 - The problem with NCLB is NOT the money. Money went through the roof.

10:19 - Time for McCain to nail Obama on Ayers again. Show the connection is more than just an association. Show how he worked with someone we all now know is a terrorist on extreme education issues.

10:16 - Hey. Education. Obama wants more money. Spread the wealth! Woo hoo!

10:15 - Damn. Awful retort. The good news is that this will finally get BAIPA into the news. The MSM will HAVE to discuss it for the first time in this campaign.

10:13 - Let's see what the CNN factcheckers have to say about Obama's answer. If there is any justice left in the world they will tear it apart.

10:12 - McCain knocked BAIPA out of the park. Obama is ready to retort. I hope John can respond and has some ammo left.

10:11 - Obama trying to change the debate. Don't let it distract you, John.

10:10 - Obama just said abortion is a moral issue. PERFECT opening for BAIPA. Nail it, John. Please.

10:09 - "Fairness" is important for SC Justices? No. It's about interpreting the US Constitution.

10:08 - Don't blow this, John. It's ok to save BAIPA for the retort. Gives Obama less time to respond. But it has to be effective.

10:06 - WOO HOO!!!!

10:04 - Can we talk about abortion now, please? Supreme Court judges? I know I'm just beating the drum but this just sucks.

10:02 - Obama nailed McCain on health care. Pwned. Destroyed. Obliterated.

10:00 - Obama is happy to talk to Joe? Um. You did. And you announced your preference for socialism.

9:59 - Joe the Plumber! Atta boy.

9:58 - McCain: "Translation. He wants to turn your health care system into the US Postal Service."

Or not.

9:56 - Health care. Another possible winning issue. Let's see how McCain blows it!

9:55 - No really. Smack the grin off his face. Seriously.

9:54 - Come on, Bob. You're putting the audience to sleep by letting them focus on this crap. ABORTION! SUPREME COURT JUDGES! These are major issues that have yet to be discussed in ANY of the debates.

9:52 - Oh snap. Great way to call him out on drilling, John. Props. Sadly no one gives a rat's ass about free trade agreements unless you refer to jobs.

9:50 - LOL! Obama is for offshore drilling. Come on. Is anyone buying this?

9:48 - Zzzzzzzzzzz. Anyone need a beer?

9:47 - Energy. Ok, fine. Winning issue. If Palin was debating.

9:46 - [banging head against desk]

9:45 - "Is she qualified to be President?" What...the...hell? Ok, at least it gives John another opening to hit his missed opportunity.

9:44 - He isn't going to compare her to Obama. Crap. Crap. Crap.

9:43 - The gender card? Come on, John. We already know she's a chick. I don't know many dudes named Sarah.

9:42 - Opening for McCain at least. He can use Palin in one of the ways I hoped she would be used. To highlight Obama's inexperience.

9:41 - A running mate question? Seriously? That isn't what this debate is about!

9:40 - Obama is going to get destroyed in the MSM for his Ayers denials if the MSM is at least moderately fair. But McCain missed a HUGE opportunity to nail him on ACORN. Fuck.

9:38 - Obama using his already known talking points to defend the Ayers relationship and Acorn. Let's hope John is ready. He can NAIL Obama on Acorn using what we saw in Johnny Utah's post from yesterday. Glad he has a followup.

9:36 - THERE IT IS. Props to John. Acorn. Clinton on Ayers(not that way, sickos). Let's hope that's not all he has in his gun.

9:35 - McCain isn't going to hit him on Ayers. Unfortunate.

9:34 - Props to McCain for calling Obama out on painting with a broad brush. Could have been a little more harsh, but his base will appreciate it.

9:33 - Obama brings up Ayers first. Odd.

9:32 - Obama is taking advantage of the average voter's ignorance on what Lewis said. Smart move. Unprincipled move.

9:31 - Will someone PLEASE knock that shiteating grin off Obama's face? Please. Seriously.

9:30 - Obama turning negative campaigning around to talk about "the issues". That will score well.

9:29 - 100% of his ads are negative? WTF? The shit this guy gets away with....

9:27 - John Lewis, John? Seriously? No undecided people knew about this story. But now they know someone McCain respects said negative things about him. Not smart.

9:26 - HA! Great way to start the mudslinging, Mr. Schafer.

9:25 - The first part of this debate is quickly becoming a story about Bush. That's not good for McCain.

9:23 - Good comeback by Obama on challenging his Party. Except "Clean coal". Come on, Barack. Seriously?

9:21 - Nice way to defuse the Bush comparison. Seperates him from the Administration and is a subtle knock on Obama's inexperience.

9:19 - I know the economy is important, but enough questions on it already. The moderators should realize we're not going to hear nothing new. Let's hear about abortion, supreme court judges....anything other than overhead projectors.

9:18 - Sen. McCain, I said WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO CUT?!?!

9:16 - Obama the deficit hawk. Sadly, people are buying that crap.

9:14 - Round 1 for McCain by a sigh, as judged by my friend Aaron.

9:13 - Strong finish on "spreading the wealth."

9:12 - Nice Barack. Defending being Robin Hood? Fine. Count on the poor vote. That's always worked.

9:11 - AND we're back. WHAT I MISS? Joe the plumber? Wow that was poorly communicated.

9:02 - Yeah. Totally cant hear the candidates. Be back in 5.

9:00 - Wow. Way to cut off the applause.

8:58 - Prediction time: The "gloves will come off" tonight. McCain will hit Obama on BAIPA and Ayers...likely not on Wright. The question will be whether he communicates it effectively. McCain will have to time the attacks well. He'll need to work it into answers where he'll get the last word. It will take some finesse...let's hope he can handle it.

8:55 - Guy next to me: "Aw hell, what is this shit?"

8:52 - I don't think there is more than one person in this bar that wants to see the debate. I look forward to the boos that are forthcoming.

Since we're a glutton for punishment...

Yep, we'll be liveblogging the final debate this evening. At this point, why stop now, right? Plus, if we can have as many of you viewing this one as you did for the snoozer that was the last debate we must be doing something right.

Keep your fingers crossed for lots of BAIPA, Ayers and ACORN....and don't forget to pick yourself up your favorite IPA beer. It's gonna be a long night.

Where in the hell have they been?

Other than tracking paid media in targeted states, the best way to determine what states the candidates find most important is to follow where the hell they are going. I've been tracking, and will continue to keep track of....

Tour de McCainobamacorn!!!

Less important than WHEN the candidates went to swing states is WHERE they went. For that reason I'll worry less about the dates they travelled and more about how many days spent and where they were. Oftentimes candidates had more than one rally in a state, and in those instances time in the state was only counted once provided it was all on the same day. Time spent in non-swing states for non-media purposes(such as fundraising or debate prep) is not counted. Tracking began this past Saturday, October 11th, and is obtained from Mark Halperin's daily blog.

Obama: PA, OH(x 2)
Biden: PA, NH, OH(x 2)

McCain: IA; VA, NC, PA(x 2)
Palin: PA(x 2), WV, OH, VA(x 2), NH

What do we learn from this? A few things. Obama and Biden have been playing a bit of offense and defense. Both Dem candidates spending time in PA tells me that the internal polls aren't showing quite the blowout public polls are showing. McCain and Palin spending 2 days each there would seem to confirm the suspicion. Biden is also playing a little defense in NH where Palin also recently spent time. In my previous predictions I have stated my belief that both PA and NH will go blue, but are vulnerable. The Dems are making a very offensive move(in more ways than one) in Ohio. Seeing as Palin has only been there once during the same time span I believe it's safe to assume our GOP candidates are a little less worried about it flipping to blue than I am.

As for the GOP ticket there is a fair mixture of offense and defense as well. Besides what is mentioned above there is the continued offensive move being made in Iowa. All public polls show the Hawkeye state going blue, but based on the amount of time McCain/Palin have spent there lately(besides our official tracking) then we have to assume internal polls show a different story. The rest of the ticket's travels show a lot of defense, with a surprising stop in WV. Hopefully no more time will need to be wasted in that traditionally red state. VA and NC are must wins so I'm happy to see some time being spent there in order to fix what the polls have been saying.

Where I'm hoping to see a scheduling change is to see some time scheduled in Colorado and Nevada. Both are must wins and neither have been visited all too recently. Keep your fingers crossed internal polls show good things there as well.

That wraps up this session of Tour de McCainobamacorn. I'll be back in a few more days with a new update.

Fraud that would make Boss Tweed blush

Our friends at Palestra have dug up even more hairraising schemes in Ohio that will pretty much completely piss you off.

Yep. These kids from Vote from Home were so innovative that they found a way to defraud our elections all the way from Oxford, England.

Our Republic has become a joke, folks. The problem is this...these kids(and whomever is guiding them) are willing to do whatever is necessary to win this election. They are disgracing our country's rich history as a bastion for freedom and Democracy in favor of winning.

The question is why? What can make them so blind to the principles they are abandoning?

Evil. And power.

Either the Bush administration and "McSame" are the definition of evil to these people, or these fartknockers are all-consumed with obtaining power.

Unfortunately, the only thing that can cure some of them may be an Obama presidency and Democratic congressional majority.

Frustrating, isn't it?

Lying is No Way To Get Ahead

I once got caught lying to a teacher...Mrs. Kendall in 5th grade.

She caught me asking the one 'developed' girl in our class if she wore an "over the shoulder boulder holder". I, of course, plead the fifth. I didn't know what it meant! I just said it because I heard my friend Kyle say it...I was innocent! Mrs. Kendall firmly scolded me, "lying is no way to get ahead Mr. Utah." Then she called my mom and I got grounded.

You see, that was a lie. My sister and mom had just watched Beaches that past weekend on VHS. I don't remember how it was used in the movie, but my 11 yr old brain knew what it meant and I couldn't wait to ask Boobs McGee on Monday. I could think of nothing better to cover my tracks than to throw my buddy under the bus.

Real sly 11 yr old Utah, real sly.

You're asking yourself, what in the hell does 11 yr old Utah's lie have to do with me. Well, here's the thing-Obama is supposed to be a great leader, but when caught in a lie, he just does the same thing 11 yr old me did: throw his buddy under the bus!

You can see from this article that Obama and ACORN are pretty tight. I mean, like they like each other as more than friends tight. $800,000 between friends has a way of making platonic friends into on-going flings.

Actually, Toni Foulkes, ACORN's Chicago Leader says, "...By the time he ran for office, we were old friends."

So, what does Barry do when caught in a lie? He throws ACORN under the bus.

"We don't need ACORN's help"

O RLY?

Then tell them to stop committing voter fraud and call for a review of their practices. Better yet, call for a "moratorium" on ACORN voter registrations. Hey, if it's good for foreclosures, it's good for ACORN!

By the way, my friend Kyle didn't talk to me for a week. He also stole my girlfriend.

This leads me to believe that ACORN is going to denounce Obama and will probably be dating Bill Ayers or Rev Wright pretty soon.

Want proof of this mess?

Pie.

For shit's sake, quit getting discouraged....

The plethora of "bad news" from national polls has been overwhelming of late. But, as I've stated before, things are far from over. Clearly, McCain has quite a hill to climb, but it's not as steep as many seem to believe it is. As we've discussed before on this blog, there are a number of key states that are vital for McCain to win. IF he wins ALL of them, he wins the Presidency. Therefore, the best way to really get an idea of where we stand is to take a look at the latest polls in the key states.

Enough chatting, let's look at the polls courtesy RealClearPolitics.

(click graphic to enlarge)


As you can see, McCain is either ahead or very close in each of these states necessary to win. The one looking worst for him is in VA where he is only 5 points down.

Now remember, unless a miracle happens and he pulls out a win in Minnesota and/or Pennsylvania, he needs to win ALL of these states.

Either way, buck up ya whiny crybabies. We're not through yet.

Thank you, Louis Farrakhan.

I imagine I'll never utter that sentence again in this lifetime. Of course, when the Obamessiah comes we all will live forever, unicorns will poop lollipops and Heidi Montag will get fat.

Money quote from everyone's favorite Nation of Islam leader/anti-semite:

"You are the instruments that God is gonna use to bring about universal change, and that is why Barack has captured the youth. And he has involved young people in a political process that they didn’t care anything about. That’s a sign. When the Messiah speaks, the youth will hear, and the Messiah is absolutely speaking."

Just a few things....

Latest ARG polls show positve numbers in Ohio(down 3, within MoE) , Minnesota(down 1) and MO(up 3) but BAD news showing McCain down 8 in West Virginia. Both MN and WV seem to be the outliers here. And ARG has a tendency to be right on or WAAAAYYY off. In other words, who the hell knows....

The Ayers attack on Obama from McCain today indicates the campaign has internal polling showing the message is clearly working. The Ayers offensive has been in effect since mid-last week providing ample time for the McCain team to determine whether to discontinue the attack and try something else. With things intensifying that must mean good news.

Will everyone please stop saying "take off the gloves", please?

The Comedic Timing Award goes to Joe Biden who in response to Gov. Palin’s dig that he’s been in the Senate since she was in second grade said, “That’s true, but she was in sixth grade the last time John had a new idea.”

Seriously, Joe? She said that LAST Tuesday. It took you 9 days to come up with that 'zinger'. Lame.

A special 3BP hello to the guy who googled "what is 3rd base with girlfriend" and came upon this blog. Good luck, fella.

Anyone got a coupon?

Obama is outspending the bejeezus out of McCain. According to Fox News the totals are $17.5 million being spent by the Ciggy McUnicorn and only $10 million being spent by the McCain/RNC conglomerate. But as important as total expenditure is, so is spending it in the right places.

Marc Ambinder was kind enough to provide us a table to break the spending down by state.


As we've discussed before here on 3BP, there are some states McCain needs to focus on moreso than others.

Based on that understanding and the table provided by Marc, the following is a breakdown of how I think spending must change over the course of the next week:

CO: Spending is closer than I imagined. Need to step it up slightly.
FL: Need to step it up slightly, but good to see such a small margin in the polls considering that spending gap.
IN: Keep that up. Indiana will come back to McCain on its own.
IA: STOP SPENDING. (RCP average is Obama +9.5)
MI: Stopped spending already.
MN: STOP SPENDING!!! ((RCP average is Obama +10.5)
MO: May need to bump it up a bit.
NC: Bump it.
NH: Status quo...just in case things start closing up.
NM: Ditto.
NV: Bump it up slightly. Obama has failed to create a serious gap here which tells me it can slide back without much effort.
OH: Expensive state to buy in. 3 markets. Status quo.
PA: Almost a lost cause. Scale back considerably.
VA: Bump it up considerably.
WI: STOP! (RCP average is Obama +8)

The time is now to cut your losses and focus on what you can and need to win in order to hit 270. This thing is still very winnable. State polls in the states John needs to win are still relatively close.

One thing is for sure, 3BP readers...don't waste your time looking at national polls this late in the game. As you learned in 8th grade(unless you're Al Gore)...the popular vote means squat.

Can you spare two minutes?

Whose fault was this economic mess? I take you back...back to the time of the Backstreet Boys, when we couldn't wait to see just how amazing the Phantom Menace was going to be, and when we learned the first and second rule of Fight Club....the era of Bill Clinton.

(click article to enlarge)

60 seconds of Truth

Noogies in Nashville!!!

3BP is liveblogging the debate. Keep hitting refresh and try to keep up. New posts will come at the top of this entry.

=========

Summary: No real fireworks. Clearly not a gamechanging debate. What analysts likely will say is that Obama showed how substantive he can be. They will say McCain didn't win. They will say it was boring. And they'd be right.

Is he saving something for next week? Is he confident the current strategy is working? Are internal polls better than what we've seen?

We'll see. But what we know is that nothing changed tonight. But is that as good for Obama as many may presume?

=========

10:34 - Better finish by McCain. That's the most energy he showed all night.

10:32 - Strong finish from Obama.

10:30 - Props to recognizing your wife, Barack. Chicks will dig that.

10:29 - Another non-answer from Obama. The question was whether you would DEFEND Israel.

10:26 - Nice transition to knock Obama on the 'precondition' point...but he needed to hit that harder.

10:25 - Good question on Israel...to be fair, he is NOT undecided either.

10:24 - Everyone keeps looking down at their questions. I'm waiting for someone to yell 'Bingo!'

10:22 - We've been reactive the past 8 years? Someone may want to have Palin explain the Bush Doctrine to him.

10:21 - LOL! Moral support! "Aw buck up, camper." :slaps Georgia on the back:

10:19 - McCain showing his experience with Russia. Good. But Obama has kept up in the foreign policy debate. Not good.

10:15 - Missed opportunity, John. You're letting Obama get away with false equivalence.

10:13 - Wow. Mocking McCain. How mature.

10:10 - Wow. Where the war will begin and END? That is HUGE. His lack of understanding is frightening.

10:09 - Whoever filtered these questioners was still drunk from the Sarah Palin drinking game.

10:06 - The McCain Doctrine. Nailed it.

10:05 - The Obama Doctrine.

10:02 - Wow. Obama going hard left by bringing up Iraq as a target. Nice set up for McCain.

10:01 - Glad to see we're finally on McCain's best issue.

10:00 - Oh come ON! Peacemakers?!?! Undecided my ass.

9:58 - Round 2 to Obama.

9:56 - Effective answer by Obama. Bringing up his Mom scores points.

9:54 - McCain is bald. Ugh.

9:53 - Is John trying to walk off stage?

9:52 - That's the point. We don't necessarily WANT employer based health care programs. It's about CHOICE.

9:51 - Health care. Lots of ammo for McCain here. Need to nail Barack for the false ads on McCain's plan.

9:50 - Undecided voters are NOT attractive people.

9:48 - Pow. Linked Obama to Bush. Nice.

9:47 - Obama can't keep up with John. Slacker.

9:45 - Investments = Spending

9:44 - McCain seems to be getting on a roll. Great job on the environment question.

9:43 - Anyone asking about "green jobs" is NOT undecided.

9:42 - Good zing by McCain on Obama's Senate middle class tax cut promise. They'll keep hitting that one.

9:41 - Fixing Social Security is easy. Well, that's nice.

9:40 - Holy. Frickin'. Crap. Only a few businesses make over 250k!??!! Please nail him to the wall on that one, John.

9:39 - Annnnnd here come the fireworks.

9:37 - Props to Tom. Thanks for shutting him up.

9:36 - BLAM! Finally nailing the tax/spend/health care issue.

9:36 - Ok, John. America is dumb. And Hoover helped cause whaaaaat....?

9:34 - Obama is pushing HARD to the right in this debate.

9:34 - Mmmmm. Drunk.

9:33 - You forgot to tell us to fill up our tires.

9:33 - Obama wants to drill now? Seriously?

9:32 - Tom, please tell him to answer the frickin' question. Please.

9:32 - Obama brings up 9/11? Boy, thanks. Usually we have to rely on Rudy to do that.

9:31 - GREAT job by McCain...."I'm not going to tell someone to wait..."

9:30 - Tough question on 'sacrifices'. Obama knows how lucky he was to get to answer second.

9:28 - Effective knock of McCain's tax plan. Crap.

9:27 - Health care is making business less competitive? What would socialist health care do?

9:26 - Obama says we have to deal with energy first. Then why delay drilling?

9:24 - "You can work on all three at once." Obama can nail him on that one. "You couldn't even run your campaign at the same time as deal with this current crisis, Senator."

9:23 - Obama's expression looks like he's trying to summon unicorns.

9:22 - McCain has zero energy.

9:21 - Obama is cutting more than he is taxing? No. Frickin'. Way. Wow.

9:20 - Obama playing the blame game. Playing the Bush card. McCain needs to acknowledge fault on both sides and start ripping Obama on taxes. "Right now our economy can't afford Obama."

9:19 - Round 1 to Obama.

9:18 - "Obama's name was not on that letter." Weaaaaak.

9:17 - Glad to see McCain will have last word on this question. He needs a home run.

9:16 - "YOU'RE NOT INTERESTED IN POINTING FINGERS?" What the hell were you doing for the past two minutes?

9:15 - Lots of early back and forth. McCain needs a good comeback on Obama's response.

9:13 - McCain bringing up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Not sure he communicated that message as effectively as he could have. Seemed stilted.

9:12 - "Thank you, that's an excellent question." DRINNNNK!

9:11 - "Fundamentals" dig by Obama. That's First Blood.

9:10 - George Soros isn't available Barack?

9:08 - Bad followup question. It would be irresponsible for any statesman to name names for a cabinet post. Good for McCain to focus more on criteria.

9:06 - ENERGY INDEPEDENCE?!?! NO! People want to hear specifically about economic policy. BAD start for McCain.

9:06 - Are suits or sportcoats illegal in the south?

9:05 - These economy answers are going to be the most rehearsed of this debate. In other words, this part will be dull.

9:03 - Told ya they'd sound like Fred Thompson.

9:02 - I still think Brokaw sounds like a parody of himself since he 'retired.'

9:00 - Alright. Prediction time. I imagine McCain is going to stay subtantive and stay away from the attacks. I believe they think the formula of Palin keeping on offense is the way to go. That may make for a less than lively debate. Unless we get some juicy questions from the audience....then all bets are off.

8:52 - Aw crap. I just thought of something. All the questioners are gonna sound like Fred Thompson. But not smart.

Seriously, who the hell is undecided this late in the game? What the hell is wrong with you people?!?!?

(sorry...I promise I'm only on beer #1)

8:49 - I highly recommend NOT including instances of "Thanks for your question" or "That's a great question" into your debate drinking game. You'll be passed out before you hear "drill baby, drill."

8:47 - Everyone have their debate beverages and snacks ready? I'm relying on a sixer of Magic Hat #9 and cheetos.

3BP liveblogging tonight...

Since the liveblog of the VP debate was such a success, 3BP will be back in form tonight for the 2nd Presidential Debate. Make sure you tune in.

In the meantime, here is a picture of Hayden Panettiere about to eat a small baby.

To: Douglass Daniel, From: Kid in front of Sarah Palin

Some of you may have seen this story on the Drudge Report today:

Analysis: Palin's words carry racial tinge
By DOUGLASS K. DANIEL
Associated Press Writer

Palin Attacks Obama on ‘Palling Around with Terrorists’

WASHINGTON (AP) - By claiming that Democrat Barack Obama is "palling around with terrorists" and doesn't see the U.S. like other Americans, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin targeted key goals for a faltering campaign.

And though she may have scored a political hit each time, her attack was unsubstantiated and carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret.

Well Douglass with two s's, This kid has a message for you.

It ain't over yet. Seriously.

As I've discussed on this blog previously, there are several swing states that are required for McCain to secure if he wants to win this thing.

The first tier, i.e. the most difficult to win, include Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. The second tier, and slightly more favorable to McCain, are Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. With these states secured, mathematically McCain does not need to win other states many in the MSM seem to still be discussing like Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

How exactly do we pull this off? Check out this map...(click it to make it larger)


So, where do we stand in these tier 1 and tier 2 states? Well, it's been a bad couple weeks, hasn't it? We had the economy take a dropkick to the groin and our girl Sarah was bent over and spanked...and not in a good way. So we should expect that we'd be down pretty bad in our key states, right? Afterall, the national polls have shown everything from a 6-11 point deficit for Johnny Mac.

Well the fact is, things really aren't that bad.

I've taken a look at the three most recent(and accurate) polls, per pollster.com in the tier 1 and tier 2 states.


What's the first thing you notice?

We're losing. But you expected that. So what's the other thing? Things seem pretty damn close, right?

Right.

There are a few scary outliers, like in Colorado...but for the most part McCain is in the lead or easily within grasp of the lead in every single state.

You may also be wondering why there are two tiers at all when all the polls seem awfully similar. Here's why...the tier 1s are simply going to be more difficult to win...that's it.

Ohio has been having troubles with their state GOP and we've got early voting to deal with. VA has been getting more blue in the northern part of the state. Colorado polls have been all over the map. Finally, in Nevada McCain is vulnerable on the all-important Yucca Mountain issue.

The tier 2 states don't have issues as difficult as these and I expect them all to swing back with less effort than is required of the tier 1s.

But things are looking up, aren't they? The economy(and George Bush with it) is out of the news and Sarah silenced every critic except the KosHeads.

So cheer up. This thing ain't over.

This and that...

To be clear, she was winking at me.

A friend this morning had a great observation about last night. When Sarah asked Biden in the very beginning if she could "call him Joe", it was a set-up for the "Say it ain't so, Joe" line. Brilliant.

McCain hasn't been ahead in Wisconsin since May. Pull out of there, too.

The Rescue Bill has to pass the House and be signed as inconspicuously by the President as possible. The earlier this gets done the faster polls start to turn around for McCain.

SurveyUSA has McCain up one in Minnesota. If that is true it likely is just as much about McCain/Palin as it is about Franken being a crappy Senate candidate.

Seriously. She was winking at me.

Props to our friends at Palestra for getting their story about early voting in Ohio told on Fox News today. Keep checking out their site for some solid reporting. Some of what you see will amaze you.

Finally, hello to all the new visitors that heard about 3BP on the Laura Ingraham radio show yesterday. And a special thanks to Michelle Malkin for linking to our blog. Glad to see people are paying attention to our ramblings.

Gettin' Screwy in St. Louis!

3BP Liveblogs the VP Debate!

8:54 - Friday morning headline prediction: Conservatives fall in love all over again with Sarah Palin

8:56 - I hope we'll be able to see Palin behind the podium.

8:58 - "Stand up, Gwen! Oh....broken ankle? God love ya!"

8:59 - I think they keep adjusting the angles of the podiums. Eventually the candidates will just be facing eachother.

9:00 - Ok, Gwen...so the audience isn't allowed to cheer...what about you?

9:01 - "Can I call you 'Joe'?" Damn, I love that woman.

9:02 - Joe starts things off and he's discussing the bailooouuuuuZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....

9:03 - Sarah looking right into the camera. Perfect. Exactly how you connect. Clinton always did that very effectively.

9:04 - Joe already has the 'oh shit' look.

9:06 - Ok, did they drug Joe? wtf?

9:06 - Ok, maybe he's drunk.

9:07 - Sarah just winked at me.

9:08 - Gwen, you little stinker.

9:09 - After Sarah's answer on the subprime question I sorta feel bad about what I owe on my credit card.

9:11 - Joe seems to have the Tim Kaine weird-eye thing.

9:12 - Good turnaround by Joe on the tax question.

9:13 - Palin grabs that turnaround and slams it right in Joe's frickin' FACE! GAAAHHH!!!

9:14 - Here comes the tax increase question. Palin needs to nail him for the 'paying taxes is patriotic' comment.

9:16 - POW!!! Atta girl.

9:17 - GREAT explanation of the health care plan.

9:18 - Annnnd a good knock by Biden. Way to demogogue, Joe!

9:19 - Sarah seems to do a LOT of writing during Joe's responses.

9:20 - AHHH! BLINDED BY BIDEN TEETH!

9:21 - First time Sarah was 'stumped'. And very well managed.

9:23 - Seems to me Joe has had a few more opportunities to follow-up than Palin.

9:24 - Ooo. Bringing up the windfall profit tax. Palin better get a chance to respond or that is a big Biden win.

9:25 - Orrrrrrrrr not.

9:26 - Biden is owning the bailout portion of the debate. Palin needs a topic change.

9:27 - Can we make this whole debate about energy? She's perfect on this.

9:28 - HA! THANKS GWEN!

9:29 - Say 'impact' again, Sarah.

9:30 - Biden brings up coal. Sarah can nail him for his comment in PA re: "no more coal plants."

9:33 - meh...she sorta got it.

9:34 - Hey look! Another Biden follow-up!

9:37 - Foreign policy. Keep your fingers crossed, America.

9:39 - "I didn't hear a plan." Now we should ask him what happened to his plan to split up Iraq into religion based provinces.

9:40 - Talibani?

9:41 - Biden's "what the fuck is this" look makes America want to dropkick him.

9:42 - Hope Sarah was prepped for the "McCain voted against funding" line.

9:43 - Does anyone really believe McCain was wrong on the surge?

9:44 - I'm pretty sure Sarah is writing me love notes.

9:45 - WoT in Iraq was coined by Petraus! BLAMMO!

9:46 - Sarah was ready for Foreign Policy. Well....so far.

9:47 - Will someone please smack that crappy smile off Biden's face?

9:49 - She's ready on Israel. One story coming out of this debate will be about how well prepared she was.

9:50 - No one in the Senate has been a better friend to Israel than Biden. Um. Joe Lieberman may disagree.

9:53 - Ooo. Biden is getting pissy. CAREFUL, AMERICA! HE'S GONNA BLOW!

9:54 - Oh wait, maybe he's just punch-drunk.

9:55 - Say "George Bush's" again. Just try it.

9:56 - Oooook yeah she wasn't ready on the Nuke question.

9:57 - There is no way in hell Joe Biden can chew meat with those teeth. They are flatter than my girlfriend in 8th grade.

9:59 - HOLY CRAP! Where did that Afghanistan follow-up answer come from? YEAH SARAH! Biden just had his best 'duhhhh' moment.

10:00 - Bosniacs? LOL!!!11ELEVENTY!!!1!!!

10:01 - Uh oh. Sarah is smiling during Joe's answer. MUUUAAAAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!

10:02 - Nice talk about being an outsider, Sarah....and key that you came back to talk about Darfur. Don't want Gwen asking you to actually answer the question.

10:04 - GEORGE BUSH'S!!!!!

10:05 - Sorry.

10:06 - Solid answer by Joe on the 'heartbeat from the Presidency' question.

10:07 - SHE WINKED AT ME AGAIN!

10:08 - Sarah being Sarah wins over female voters. No question.

10:09 - And Biden is an asshole.

10:10 - SAY IT AIN'T SO, JOE! There...we've got our soundbite of the debate.

10:11 - Sarah knocking NCLB will REALLY help with chicks....er...women.

10:12 - Sarah has won. It's over.

10:14 - Biden likes touching himself.

10:15 - Ew. Sorry.

10:16 - The most dangerous VP in history? Show some respect, dillweed.

10:17 - Some folks may knock Sarah for her point about the power of the VP.

10:18 - Wtf? The "what's your weakness" question? Seriously? That question was lame even when I was getting interviewed to work at Wendy's in high school.

10:19 - My excessive passion? Laughably lame.

10:20 - Biden: "I'm much better off than you."

10:21 - Getting choked up? Oh come ON!

10:22 - Biden's flailing.

10:23 - And now he's talking about Bork and chairing the judiciarrrrrzzzzzzZZZZZZZ....

10:24 - Sarah: "I caved." D'oh!

10:25 - It's past Joe's bedtime.

10:28 - Shocker. Joe is gonna get the last word.

10:29 - Sarah knocking the MSM. Atta girl.

10:30 - SaaaaaaaaaaLUTE!

10:31 - Annnnnnnnd America turns off their TV.

10:32 - Here comes what really matters. The coverage from the MSM.

Thanks to everyone for following along. I'm confident my headline prediction that I started off with will hold true. Palin proved she could handle the big stage. No major gaffes from either candidate. No knockout blows.

Clearly a Palin win.

Rock.