3C proponents say train will be faster, but didn't consult the railroads

Guest posted by Bytor

Last month, the Ohio Department of Transportation announced that the proposed 3C railway connecting Ohio's 3 largest cities suddenly would be faster than their previous estimates. If you remember, the previous schedule would have taken about 6 hours to get from Cleveland to Cincinnati, with an average speed of 39 mph. Yet, all of a sudden, now they say that the trip can be made in 5 hours 12 minutes.

Funny how the trip gets shorter as we get closer to the election, eh Governor? Last year, the ODT said that the trip couldn't be covered in less the 5 hours 20 minutes, even if the train didn't stop. Since trying to board a moving train, even at a blazing fast 39 mph, is quite dangerous, the required stops brought the trip to the 6 hour mark.

Now, all of a sudden, the train will average 50 mph. So, what changed? A consultant in California ran a new computer model. He must have had lots of information and cooperation from the railroad companies who actually, you know, own the track, right?

Not so much.

Not only weren't the 3 railroads even consulted on the new schedule, they still haven't even seen it.

Any changes to the schedule require approval from the three freight railroads that own the 258 miles of track that the 3C passenger trains would use.

State transportation planners acknowledge that CSX, Norfolk Southern and Rail America not only have not agreed to the proposed passenger train schedule, but they haven't even seen it.

The freight railroads operate trains as fast as 60 mph along the corridor.

"We really need to talk to the railroads," said Don Damron, chief planner for the Ohio Rail Development Commission, which is part of the state Transportation Department. "Chances are, we will continue to decrease this schedule over long-term investments in the corridor."

Cooperation from the freight railroads is crucial for the state to hit its speed target, said C. Kenneth Orski, a Maryland-based transit consultant not involved in the Ohio project.

"Only they can tell you authoritatively whether (the state's) estimates are accurate or not," he said.

Also suspicious is this:

Woodside Consulting Group ran its computer analysis showing the 50-mph speed Sept. 30. The state, however, had released the higher speed estimates six days earlier.

So, Ted's ODT announced the faster speed of the train days before the magical new simulation was even run?

You don't think Ted Strickland's administration would fudge the numbers to make this proposal look less stupid before the election, do you?

Gov. Ted Strickland's transportation advisers insist that they didn't develop the new speed profile to deflect political criticism of the $400 million project.

Of course they didn't. What was I thinking?

Gimme more Obama.

The President is coming to Cleveland on Halloween.

If the results are anywhere close to the blowback that happened in Columbus at Ohio State, I can only wish he makes a statewide tour out of his visit.

From today's Lantern:

That crowd mostly was a result of people falling in love with a man. It was not based on affection toward a cause. Otherwise, people wouldn't have groaned when Gov. Ted Strickland was introduced. The attendees were there because they enjoy hearing tired, worn-out, car-in-ditch metaphors.

In fact, the candidates accompanying Obama would have done themselves a favor had they limited their speeches to a couple short sentences. They should have said: "Vote Democrat. If not for me, then for Obama."

If that crowd was any reflection of 2008, those words would have caused a whole slew of young, impressionable leftists to tighten their bright blue capes and teleport to the nearest voting booth. Instead, Mary Jo Kilroy, Lee Fisher and Strickland brought angst and annoyance to the otherwise excitable crowd.

When Strickland's handlers were on the conference call with the political shop at the White House, I imagine there wasn't a discussion about how to encourage annoyance at the Democratic candidate for Ohio Governor.

But that's what happened.

And are we seeing any increased enthusiasm on Ohio State's campus after the rally?

In 2008, there was more blue on Ohio State's campus than I thought was legally permitted. The Oval was packed every day with individuals carrying clipboards begging students to register to vote. Sidewalks were covered in 3 inches of chalk, and bulletin boards for miles were littered with "Hope-Change-Yes We Can" jargon.

Things are a little different now. Someone can stroll across the Oval without being inundated with anything related to the election. Campus is almost completely free of political nuisances.

Last year in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, the President campaigned at the last minute for all three Democratic candidates who were all caught in fierce battles with their Republican opponents. Back then, the President's approval rating wasn't in the depths where it now resides in Ohio.

Two days before the election, with Strickland caught in a tight battle with Kasich, the President comes to Cleveland.

Albert Einstein once said, "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

'Nuff said.

About that enthusiasm gap...

This morning...

This weekend...

Clinton is coming to town.

Word is that former President Bill Clinton is going to campaign for Strickland at three stops this week.

But if the crowd Clinton pulled in Michigan is any indication, Team Strickland shouldn't be too optimistic about improving their standing in the enthusiasm gap.

While the crowd hoisted signs that stated “Virg Surge,” the turnout at the rally was anemic. More than 500 people came to the rally, but the gym at Renaissance High School was only about one-third full, even though Clinton used to command full houses wherever he went, especially in Detroit.

What I liked and didn't like in this weekend's Ohio Poll...

The latest Ohio Poll had some interesting changes from the last. Namely, Kasich's lead has shrunk to 2, 49-47.

We'll keep this simple.

What I liked about the poll...

• Kasich is ahead by four among those most likely to vote.
• The GOP enthusiasm gap is an astounding 12 points.
• Indepedents, while still a much smaller sample than any other polls, showed a net gain of 7 points towards Kasich. Kasich now leads 46-40.
• Kasich won the issue questions.
• He's more likely to bring change by 10 points.
• Will improve the economy by 4 points.
• Lower the unemployment rate by 5 points.
• And Strickland is more likely to raise taxes by 28 points(!).

What I didn't like about the poll...

• Strickland is creeping up closer to 50. He's still below 45 in the RCP average, but any movement up is obviously not welcomed.
• He's getting slightly more partisan support than Kasich. 
• Obviously, this sample included more Democrats than the last, meaning more Democrats are getting engaged. 
• Questions about honesty and empathy sided with slightly with Strickland, which isn't much of a surprise considering the tone of his campaign.

Eight days to go and this race is tight. We have enthusiasm on our side. Let's keep things rolling!

8 Days.

8 days to go.

As Team Kasich begins their Leading Ohio tour, I figured we all could use a little GOTV inspiration from Smokey & the Bandit.

Get all the details on the events here.

My apologies to any Democrats who may believe they are being compared to Sheriff Buford T. Justice. Ha.

So bring your good times, and your laughter too!

Guest post by Jed Eckert

Sound the trumpets, roll out the red carpet and pop open the champagne!

Ohio’s long nightmare of unemployment is over!

Put on your Sunday’s best, shine your shoes because for the 6^th straight month Ohio’s unemployment rate has dropped to a totally awesome 10.0% and Ohio actually shed 17,000 jobs in one month!

Wait, what?

Yup. As the overall unemployment rate dropped , the report indicated a harsher reality than the sticker price on the press release: Behind the numbers, there are 17,000 fewer employed Ohioans and 6,000 less in the workforce.

There is zero good news in the latest jobs report.

While the Strickland campaign is busy preparing a hastily written press release touting the “6^TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF DROPPING UNEMPLOYMENT ” their praise of this report not only makes them look out of touch with the reality of the state, but also ignorant of the numbers behind the headlines.

Surely embedded in their press release will be the obligatory quote from Lis Smith that goes a little something like this, “Governor Strickland sees hope in the new jobs report as unemployment has dropped for the 6^th straight month. But the Governor will not be happy until each and every Ohioan has meaningful work.”

Unfortunately, cookie cutter lines won’t cut it with this electorate anymore. As they praise the report, they’ll look even more out of touch, even more insensitive to the situation on the ground.

But please, send that press release for the fun of it.

In a flash, private industry makes the 3-C Rail Project obsolete

It's amazing what capitalism can do, eh?

In a release from United and Continental Airlines, it turns out a Cleveland to Cincinnati route is just around the corner.

United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) today announced plans to launch service on several new nonstop routes in 2011 as it begins to optimize the combined route networks of United Airlines and Continental Airlines. Even with these new route additions, operated by a mix of mainline and regional aircraft, United and Continental will remain within the previously announced capacity guidance.

[...]

Continental will add new flights between Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport and Bakersfield and Palm Springs, Calif.; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Grand Junction, Colo.; Hobbs, N.M.; Montreal; and Reno, Nev. From Cleveland Hopkins International, Continental will begin flights to Cincinnati, Ohio, and from New York/Newark Liberty, the carrier will begin service to Des Moines, Iowa.

So it sounds like Cleveland residents can either use this hub in a few months to get to Cincinnati in about an hour at a marginal rate, or you can wait five years, hop on a train that goes 37 mph, and watch your taxes go up as we subsidize a train that no one uses.

Ah, capitalism. I love you.

Christie tells it to your face.

An extreme close-up of the GOP star of 2010 tells you to get off your tail and vote on November 2nd.



You can see the same guy live and in the flesh at a rally a week from today in Lebanon at 1:30pm. Check out the details here.

11 days.

11 days left.

Ohio has been taking its lumps the past four years of the Strickland Administration and back through the Taft Administration.

But this clip from Rocky tells Ohioans exactly what they need to hear as we prepare to begin A New Day.

"Nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done."

Numbers are hard.

Just ask Strickland spokeswoman Lis Smith.

Earlier tonight she tweeted....

But then you go to the linked article and you get...

Ohio's two gubernatorial candidates have almost $6 million combined for the final two weeks of their closely watched race.

Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has $3.1 million, and Republican challenger John Kasich about $4 million on hand for the stretch run, according to campaign finance reports filed Thursday at the Ohio Secretary of State's office.

The figures are for cash the candidates had through Oct. 20. But actual figures may vary because some expenditures have not been recorded yet by each of the campaigns. The campaigns each spent nearly $3 million through the first three weeks of this month buying television air time.

Apparently somewhere "about $4 million on hand" turned into "$2.7M" in Lis' brain.

Don't worry. Come November 3rd Lis will have plenty of time to figure this kinda stuff out.

In key county, the GOP is turning out better than they did in the 2008 presidential year

This is pretty impressive.

The Hamilton County Board of Elections has done a good job of providing detailed early voting numbers for this election and referencing back to previous elections so we can properly compare where we're at.

So far this year, 16,309 Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 13,019 Democrats have returned theirs.

In 2008 with the same number of days to go before the election, 15,772 Republicans had submitted their ballots and 20,432 Democrats had submitted theirs.

In other words, at this point in time, more Republicans are turning out in Hamilton County this year than turned out for the presidential election at the same point of time.

And Democrats? Their turnout has reduced by 36%, or about what would be expected in a midterm election.

But Republicans? They are doing the unexpected. They are outperforming what they did in 2008. Pretty amazing.

What makes the Republican advantage so much more impressive? Per the Plain Dealer, Democrats enjoy a 62/38 registration advantage in Hamilton County.

Misunderstanding Momentum

Nate Silver of the NYT/fivethirtyeight wants to make sure you have a better comprehension of momentum in a campaign. He uses yet another of his ridiculously thorough studies to prove his point.

Turn on the news or read through much of the analysis put out by some of our friends, and you’re likely to hear a lot of talk about “momentum”: the term is used about 60 times per day by major media outlets in conjunction with articles about polling.

When people say a particular candidate has momentum, what they are implying is that present trends are likely to perpetuate themselves into the future. Say, for instance, that a candidate trailed by 10 points in a poll three weeks ago — and now a new poll comes out showing the candidate down by just 5 points. It will frequently be said that this candidate “has the momentum”, “is gaining ground,” “is closing his deficit,” or something similar.

Each of these phrases are in the present tense. They create the impression that — if the candidate has gone from being 10 points down to 5 points down, then by next week, he’ll have closed his deficit further: perhaps he’ll even be ahead!

Sounds a lot like the Strickland campaign, eh?

Silver continues...

There’s just one problem with this. It has no particular tendency toward being true.

Read the whole analysis here. If you're into polling analysis, it's fascinating.

With 12 days left, Ted goes to Wall Street.

Oh, sweet, sweet irony.

Word is Governor Strickland went on a fundraising venture to Wall Street in New York City for "party building" this morning. That should read "raise money for the Ohio Democratic Party and Democratic Governors Association". ODP money can then be directly transferred to the Governor. The DGA can spend cash on his behalf.

Does anyone find the hypocrisy from the Strickland campaign troubling?

Strickland, who has railed upon business and Wall Street all campaign, forgoes whatever principles he had left and lets Wall Street line his pockets one last time before November 2nd.

Pick a side, Governor.

I wonder if he'll pick up anymore cash from the Lehman family.

CNN REPORT: Health care costs to skyrocket

This is what White House website on health care reform shows you on its front page:

It makes health care more affordable, eh?

Ok, if that's the case, explain this headline from CNN.com today:

What a colossel screw-up Obamacare has been.

And let's not forget, it was supported by Ted Strickland, Lee Fisher, Mary Jo Kilroy, John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Zack Space(once), Charlie Wilson, Betty Sutton, and Marcy Kaptur.

This is their mess. Let's make sure they remember it on November 2nd.

And let's start cleaning it up in January.

Sketchiness in Ted's backyard.

Well, this sure sounds like cheating is alive and well in southern Ohio. Funny how you see this kinds of stories with Democrats far more than you ever do with Republicans, eh?

The issue started when employees at the board noticed a number of applications for absentee ballots were going to one of two post office box numbers. When voters apply for an absentee ballot, they are allowed to have the ballot sent to an address other than their home location.

After elections board workers noticed the same post office boxes appeared repeatedly, they started to make random calls to confirm whether the voters wanted their ballots sent to their home or the second address, according to Cathy Overbeck, elections board director.

On most calls the workers found that the phones were disconnected. Those they did get in touch with said they wanted the ballot sent to their home address.

But all of the applications had listed that the absentee ballots were to be sent either in care of Russ Bennett, P.O. Box 829 Proctorville or Charles Maynard P.O. Box 4616, Ironton.

[...]

Since 2008 Maynard has voted as a Democrat. Before that he voted as a Republican. Bennett had voted Democrat since 1986 until he ran for Lawrence County Sheriff in 2008, which he did as an Independent. In 2010 he voted Democrat.

12 days.

12 days left.

You want to know courage?

Talk to our founders. Talk to John Adams.

This scene from HBO's mini-series on Adams was a fantastic display of Adams' speech to the Continental Congress. And it speaks true to our nation's principles.

"I see hope."



My apologies to any liberals who think they are being compared to John Dickinson or the Redcoats. Ha.

CNN says the race is tied.

Well, we finally have a poll saying what the Democrats wanted it to say.

Which, of course, means it's a bit of an outlier from the other polls we've seen.

The new CNN/Time poll has Strickland up 48/47.

Looking at the crosstabs, Strickland and Kasich are comparable with their partisans. Strickland wins Dems 93-5. Kasich wins GOPers 90-6.

It's the Independent number that proves interesting.

Kasich is winning Independents by a full 9 points, 51-42.

Obviously, if Kasich is winning Independents by this margin then it's clear that Democrats were sampled at a far higher rate than Republicans.

Reacl Clear Politics have updated their average to include the CNN poll. Here ya go...

Not surprisingly, Obama is still very unpopular, with his approval rating coming in at 42-53 overall and 33-58 among Independents.

Meanwhile, Lee Fisher is still losing. Bad. In this poll he's 15 points back.

I've been notified that the Kasich campaign will soon be attacking Ted Turner in response to this poll.*
 

* - this is a lie.

Silver ups Kasich's chances.

Nate Silver of the NYT/FiveThirtyEight has revised his latest trusted statistical model and has upped Kasich's chances of winning the Governor's race to heights not seen since the middle of September.

I like those odds.

Silver's "adjusted polling average", which averages all polls then accounts for pollster bias and other variables has Strickland stuck at 41.7% with Kasich at 48.0%.

13 days out.

Sometimes the dirt trickles up...

Big news today from the Dispatch:

Joshua Engel, the former top lawyer for the Ohio Department of Public Safety, was charged today with three counts of intercepting and disclosing confidential information as part of his his long-running scheme to monitor e-mail messages between his office and the state inspector general.

Engel has agreed to plead guilty to the three charges filed today in a bill of information by the Franklin County prosecutor's office and cooperate in any investigation.

So one of Strickland's top appointees has plead guilty and has clearly abused his office.

But that's not the juicy stuff. Here's the money shot:

Engel reported both to the Public Safety director for administrative purposes and to Kent Markus, Gov. Ted Strickland's legal counsel, on legal issues related to the agency.

Engel told authorities that he did not seek authority for the e-mail filter from Markus but "may have informed him at some point" that the e-mails were being captured, according to the search warrant. Markus has denied having any advance knowledge about the filter.

If Engel ends up cooperating and testifying that Markus lied and did have knowledge of the nefarious plot, that means the Governor's top legal advisor and one of the biggest fish in Strickland's sea has been lying and is implicated in a criminal matter.

Will any of this come out fast enough to really have an effect on the race? No, probably not. But it's a huge headache to the Strickland Administration and, if true, speaks volumes to the choice voters have in front of them if they so choose to educate themselves.