Monday, October 25, 2010

What I liked and didn't like in this weekend's Ohio Poll...

The latest Ohio Poll had some interesting changes from the last. Namely, Kasich's lead has shrunk to 2, 49-47.

We'll keep this simple.

What I liked about the poll...
  • Kasich is ahead by four among those most likely to vote.
  • The GOP enthusiasm gap is an astounding 12 points.
  • Indepedents, while still a much smaller sample than any other polls, showed a net gain of 7 points towards Kasich. Kasich now leads 46-40.
  • Kasich won the issue questions.
    • He's more likely to bring change by 10 points.
    • Will improve the economy by 4 points.
    • Lower the unemployment rate by 5 points.
    • And Strickland is more likely to raise taxes by 28 points(!).
What I didn't like about the poll...
  • Strickland is creeping up closer to 50. He's still below 45 in the RCP average, but any movement up is obviously not welcomed.
  • He's getting slightly more partisan support than Kasich. 
  • Obviously, this sample included more Democrats than the last, meaning more Democrats are getting engaged. 
  • Questions about honesty and empathy sided with slightly with Strickland, which isn't much of a surprise considering the tone of his campaign.
Eight days to go and this race is tight. We have enthusiasm on our side. Let's keep things rolling!

1 comment:

  1. Everytime Modern leaves a comment, I imagine him as Dan Akroyd on SNL, "Jon, you ignorant slut."


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