Wednesday, September 9, 2009

4 more points.

Yesterday, Scott Rasmussen announced that Republicans have reached a new high in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Support for both parties rose one point over the past week, giving
Republicans their highest level of support of the past several years. Support
for Democrats last week reached its lowest point during that same time
For reference, Democrats reached their peak in June of last year with 48%.

On Obama, election day, Democrats were polling at 47%. Republicans at 41%.

Now, I fully acknowledge that no one can directly translate this type of poll onto their own district's congressional race. After all, each race has its own variables and characteristics that make it its own. But, the poll does provide a very real gauge on the overall mood of the voters.

And that's important.

If the GOP can reach, and heaven forbid, surpass the 48% marker, Republicans will be able to claim clear momentum as we head into midterm season. This helps all-around; with last-minute candidate recruiting, with fundraising, and with the all-important horse race that is a congressional campaign.

Once again, this reinforces the importance of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races in two months. If the GOP can pull off wins in these two clear blue states, and if the wins can be properly framed and utilized by the national Party, Republicans nationwide may very well hit, and even surpass, the magic 48 point barrier.

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