Friday, September 25, 2009

Don't you know that you're toxic?

No, this isn't another post about Toxic Ted being left out of an Ohio Obama visit.

Instead, it's about a very important number that has been floating around DC.


That's the number, according to political analyst Charlie Cook, of congressional seats currently held by Democrats that were won by Bush in 2004 AND McCain in 2008.

Red seats. In blue hands.

For Democrats preparing for mid-term elections without an Obama on the ballot, that's bad news.

But I digress, I take you back to February of this year. Obama's approval rating is up over 60 percent, and his net approval was bouncing above and below 20 points. Democrats were leading the Generic Congressional ballot by 4 points. The President had political capital, and he spent it getting the stimulus passed.

All of it.

Since then it's been a quick ride downwards. The President's net approval has flipped by around 25-30 points. And the Generic Congressional ballot has completely inverted.

Now, I'm not going to go making any predictions about the House turning hands, I'll leave that to respected left-wing bloggers. Instead, I'm thinking in the short-term.

With poll numbers showing signs of Republican resurgance and backlash to Democrat policies like Health Care reform, the Democrats in those 48 vulnerable seats have, along with their commander-in-chief, run out of political capital.

Time has run out on the President to pass any sweeping progressive legislative agenda for the mere reason that those 48 members, plus whatever blue dogs aren't included in that number, will be so worried about retaining their seat that they will force the Administration to hold off on forcing them to take a position on immigration policy, the tax code, or whatever may be next for the President, before the midterm election season begins.

Don't ya know that he's toxic?

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