Ted doesn't comprehend what happened to him.

Yesterday, Politico released the first interview with Ted Strickland since voters booted him from the Governor's office.

I don't think he's taking it too well.

It seems the Governor believes in two things that aren't true; 1) he'll be relevant come January 11th. 2) Ohioans like him.

“I wouldn’t call what we’re contemplating a shadow government, but you might,” he said with a laugh. “I’ve still got a lot of fight left in me. I think we all do. We’re going to make sure the incoming administration adheres to high ethical standards. We’re going to continue to fight.”

Strickland said Kasich’s 97,000-vote margin did not grant him a mandate but was a reflection of voters being “beaten down by this economy.”

A shadow government? You can't be serious.

Methinks the Governor is taking the press he's been getting while fighting for the 3-C a little too seriously. The only reason the Governor is getting media coverage is because he's still the Governor. After Kasich is inaugurated, his opinion won't matter any more than any other Ohioan.

As for having a mandate to be some type of "shadow government"? Well, in that case he's gone off the rails.

Not only would any effort to do so be an unsightly disrespect of Ohio's structure of government, but the belief that Ohioans are behind him is just delusional. In the final poll from Democratic polling firm PPP, Strickland's approval rating sat at 41-50. 1/4 of Democrats didn't approve of him and Independents had him underwater by 28 points.

In their last poll of the race, Fox News showed the Governor with just a 43% favorability rating.

In Quinnipiac's last poll that asked voters questions beyond whom they support for Governor, Strickland was stuck again with a 43% favorability rating.

In other words, the reason the race was tight had nothing to do with support for you, Governor Strickland. It had everything to do with your scorched earth brand of campaigning in an effort to tear down John Kasich.

Strickland likes to say he only lost because the economy was bad. That's horribly shortsighted. Strickland lost because after four years, voters didn't believe he was the man that could pull Ohio back to where it should be.

A perfect example is in the final Fox News poll that showed only 27% of Ohioans thought Strickland had a clear plan for handling the economy and creating jobs. That's after four years of being Governor and an entire campaign season. That lack of confidence in Strickland is why he lost.

Re-election campaigns are first and foremost referendums of the incumbent. And despite all the trash Strickland threw at Kasich, they still believed Kasich was better suited to be Governor for the next four years.

That doesn't entitle Strickland to a shadow government. That entitles him to enjoy the economic environment he helped create.

What other crazy stuff did Strickland say? Oh yeah. This one is a doozy.

"We’ve got to hold the center in this country."

In the CNN exit poll, Strickland lost Independents 53-37. 'Nuff said.

But I must credit Strickland for one quote. In regards to the potential 2012 GOP field, he stated...

With the exception of Mitt Romney, the others are pretty far to the right, and I think are really harmful.

As many of my readers know by now, I'm not the biggest fan of Mitt Romney. While he's still a far better alternative than Barack Obama, his 'wherever the polls tell me to go' brand of leadership has never impressed me. So I appreciate Strickland providing a quote that can be used time and time again in the primaries to highlight to conservatives why Romney shouldn't be the GOP nominee.

All this said, I hope Strickland keeps giving interviews through the end of the year. It's the gift that keeps giving.

Sadly, the November wave didn't take the stimulus with it.

A great new column from Reason magazine gives us a not-so-subtle reminder of just how bad the stimulus has been for our nation.

One of the great (and incredibly wrong) theories from stimulus supporters is something we've seen in the arguments in favor of the 3-C passenger rail push by its advocates - that spending our money on a project that will barely be used will still create jobs - not only for those that build and run the railroad, but for the businesses they claim are bound to sprout up upon completion of the rail system.

Well, that sounds good in theory. In practice it's a bit more of a longshot.

But let's start from the beginning...

Imagine that I break my arm, but instead of getting a cast I take a big shot of morphine. The drug will make me feel better, but it won’t fix my arm. When the effect wears off, the pain will come back. And instead of being restored to their proper position, my bones will remain out of place, perhaps solidifying there, which will surely mean chronic pain in the long run.

Stimulus spending is like morphine. It might feel good in the short term for the beneficiaries of the money, but it doesn’t help repair the economy. And it causes more damage if it gets in the way of a proper recovery.

When the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was signed on February 13, 2009, it became the biggest spending bill in the history of the country. Its original cost of $787 billion was divided into three main pieces: $288 billion in tax benefits such as a refundable tax credit; $272 billion in contracts, grants, and loans (the shovel-ready projects); and $302 billion in entitlements such as food stamps and unemployment insurance.The checks felt good for the Americans who received them. And the contractors who got those grants and contracts were happy to have the work. But the idea behind the stimulus was that this money would not just be a subsidy to those in need; it would revive the economy through a multiplier effect. The unemployed worker, for instance, would cash his unemployment check and spend it at the grocery store. The store owner would in turn spend the money on supplies, and so on, triggering a growth in the economy that goes beyond the original investment and jumpstarts the hiring process.

White House economists used forecasting models that assumed each dollar of spending would trigger between $1.50 and $2.50 of growth. As a result, President Barack Obama announced that his plan would grow the economy by more than 3 percent and “create or save” 3.5 million jobs over the next two years, mostly in the private sector. These models also forecasted that without the spending, the unemployment rate would increase from 7 percent to 8.8 percent.

Since then the U.S. economy has shed another 2.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate has climbed to 9.6 percent. Figure 1 shows the monthly unemployment rate, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since the adoption of the act, alongside the cumulative grant, contract, and loan spending as reported by the recipients on recovery.gov.

The stimulus isn’t working because it is based on faulty economics. Using historical spending data, the Harvard economist Robert Barro and recent Harvard graduate Charles Redlick have shown that in the best case scenario, a dollar of government spending produces much less than a dollar in economic growth—between 40 and 70 cents. They also found that if the government spends $1 and raises taxes to pay for it, the economy will shrink by $1.10. In other words, greater spending financed by tax increases hurts the economy. Even if the tax is applied in the future, taxpayers today adjust their consumption and business owners refrain from hiring based on the expectation of future tax increases, which worsen the economy today.

[...]

Unless you believe that federal spending magically conjures up purchasing power (or that morphine heals bones), the total GDP will remain unchanged, because the federal government has to borrow the stimulus money from either domestic or foreign sources. This borrowing in turn reduces other areas of demand.

Stimulus spending does not increase total demand. It merely reshuffles it, leaving the economy just as weak as before—if not weaker, since it also increases the national debt. By trying to ease the pain, the administration may well have made the patient worse.

Indeed, they did.

But what's past is past.

Now the voters have spoken. They didn't like how their country was being run. That includes the stimulus. Obamacare. Cap & Trade. And on and on...

Fortunately, there's a new sheriff in town. And things are gonna be run quite a bit differently.

Go get 'em, Mr. Boehner.

Thanks for the mess, Ted and Bob and Speaker Budish and...

You made a kid cry.

In the Dispatch editorial pages, at least.

So the question stands.

Can Kasich clean up the giant mess left behind by Ted Strickland, Bob Taft, and previous iterations of Ohio's General Assembly?

Yes, he can. But don't think for a second that it will be easy. Nothing this challenging ever is.

Steele is done. Bring on Gillespie.

This news just broke on Politico:

Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins resigned from his post Tuesday morning with a stinging indictment of Chairman Michael Steele’s two-year tenure at the committee.

In a four-page letter to Steele and the RNC’s executive committee obtained by POLITICO, Collins lays out inside details, previously only whispered, about the disorganization that plagues the party. He asserts that the RNC’s financial shortcomings limited GOP gains this year and reveals that the committee is deeply in debt entering the 2012 presidential election cycle.

Go on and click the above link to read all the gruesome details.

I hate to tell you all "I told you so", but as I wrote back in April...

Michael Steele is done.

He may remain as Chairman through the next year, but any hopes for an effective chairmanship of the RNC have vanished. He's bloodied and bleeding. And there's no reason to think anything short of an overwhelmingly dominating month of fundraising in April can begin to save him.

Ok, he sucked. So what do we do now?

Well, fortunately we have a chance to install another chairman in the upcoming RNC meeting.

Now we all knew Steele's chances at getting re-elected RNC chair have been somewhere between slim to none for awhile. But after a high profile staffer publicly details mismanagement of this magnitude, it's time to put the nail in Steele's coffin. He's done as Chairman.

So far, only former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis has entered his name into consideration as a candidate. He's very competent, but has never seemed to spin up that much buzz.

My hope is Ed Gillespie, a former Chairman, will decide to give things another go.

Once again, as I wrote back in April...

Gillespie's skillful leadership of the RNC during the 2004 Presidential led to fantastic fundraising numbers and an unparalleled ground game.

[...]

Now some may call for a higher profile leader to assume the chairmanship, but the last thing the RNC needs right now is another big personality. Selecting a Chairman isn't a choice for best spokesman. While occasionally appearing in front of the media is an obvious part of the job, it isn't the priority. Instead the job should be held by the best strategist, best organizer, and best fundraiser, all in one package. Instead of a big personality we need the strong, unassuming winner that inspires confidence in both the volunteers that win races and the donors that fund them.

At the end of the day, it's not just a good choice for the RNC, but also a good choice for Gillespie. Sure, his reputation is already stellar. And he already helped save our butts this year by organizing American Crossroads with Karl Rove. But to lead the RNC back from the brink and win the White House in '12 would place him at a 'Haley Barbour in 1994' level of stardom within the GOP.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Sold!

This is a better idea than the 3-C rail project.

3BP 2012 GOP Presidential nomination poll 4.0 results....

Thanks for voting in this weekend's poll. While we recognize it holds no meaningful significance, it's always interesting to see where my readers stand on who they feel should be the nominee in 2012.

So without any further adieu, the results...

Mitch Daniels won his 3rd straight 3BP poll, coming in with 24.7% of the vote.

Despite all his claims not to be interested in running, 3BP's readers still love them some Chris Christie. He came in a close 2nd with 21.2% of the vote.

Haley Barbour had his best performance yet, coming in 3rd place with 10.2%.

Mitt Romney continues his losing ways by earning 4th place with 8.9%.

Sarah Palin hasn't won many 3BP readers over, coming in 5th with 6.1% of the vote.

If anything stands out from this poll, it's the surprisingly strong and consistent support of Mitch Daniels among 3BP's readership - the same readership which also so happens to include some of the strongest and most involved GOP activists in the state of Ohio.

The Draft Mitch movement keeps growing. Maybe now is the time to hop on the bandwagon.

Obama cost Ohio State $80k

The purpose of the President's visit to Ohio State in late October was to help Ted Strickland and the rest of the Democratic ticket win on November 2nd.

It didn't work.

In fact, the big takeaway from the event was this hysterical quote from Ohio State's student newspaper.

"It got to the point that when Strickland was announced, the last person to go on before the Obamas, an audible groan rumbled through the crowd."

Hysterical.

What's not funny was the cost of the event.

From the latest Lantern:

Nearly four weeks after President Barack Obama's campaign rally on Ohio State's Oval, the university is paying the price for hosting the event — literally.

The Democratic National Committee paid for many of the rally expenses, but OSU was left to pick up a tab of nearly $80,000.

And if the attendees had just picked up after themselves, they could have saved $16,000 in cleanup costs.

Awesome.

Despite attempts to take up residency, Obama is losing Ohio by 15 points

In a poll against a generic Republican opponent, Obama is trailing 55-40 in a new poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Even if their sample is adjusted to be equal to that of the 2008 election, the President would still lose 45-51.

The most apparent challenge for the President is among Independents where he loses them 59-32. The partisan breakdowns should be a bit scary, too. The Republican pulls in 95% of the vote while Obama only gets 77% of Democrats.

Now sure, going up against a generic candidate rather than one with personal flaws and specific policies to attack is a whole different story. But no Obama supporter can be happy with where their candidate stands at this point in Ohio. As far as starting points go, it doesn't get much worse.

The big question is how the electorate will change over the next two years and whether the economy will improve enough to provide the President the necessary boost to woo Independents and bring Democrats back home.

According to Jim Pethokoukis, a new survey by the Feds of 43 economic forecasters showed unemployment will average 9.3% in 2011 and 8.7% in 2012. Is that kind of slow improvement enough? My bet is no.

We have a long way to go and an immeasurable number of variables to still be determined, but without a doubt, the President is in trouble in Ohio.

Maybe a 13th visit would help.

This makes me happy.

Courtesy the Ohio Republican Party.

Thought you'd like to see a map of Ohio's congressional districts after this month's election. Thanks to your hard work, we reduced the number of Ohio Democrats in Congress by 50%.

A final look at the Ohio Gubernatorial 2010 Exit Poll

Back in early October, 3BP had a post detailing how Ted Strickland was surrendering the Independent vote to bring in the President in hopes of turning out the vote among the base.

After a review of the CNN exit poll which sampled over 3,300 Ohioans, that's exactly what happened.

By 53-37, Independent voters supported John Kasich. And while Democrats turned out at the same level as Republicans, they far underperformed where they needed to be.

Very simply, Independents were turned off by Strickland's failures and the President's presence. And Democrats weren't inspired by a Governor that failed to live up to his promises.

Survey USA, PPP, and Fox News all came within a point or two of the final margin among Independents.

One interesting demographic point came in the difference between African-American males and females. While African-American women favored Strickland by 90 points, African-American men strongly supported Strickland, but not by nearly as much - 73 points.

The educated preferred Kasich over Strickland. College graduates preferred the Republican 56-41 while non-graduates preferred the Governor 50-45.

Surprisingly, despite his obsessive support for big labor, Strickland's support among union households dropped a massive 14 points from his win in 2006.

A lot of hay was made near the end of the campaign about the Kasich's vulnerability among Republicans on the gun issue. It turns out the effect was minimal, if there at all. Each one their fair share of partisans with Strickland winning 89% of the Democratic vote and Kasich pulling in 88% of the GOP vote.

What about the big attack? Wall Street.

According to exit polls, a third of Ohio voters primarily blamed Wall Street for their state’s economic problems, but those voters went for Kasich 49 percent to 47 percent.

“Sometimes people have all the information on the candidates and still vote for the other guy,” said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, about the Ohio race.

Indeed.

Ultimately, I believe Strickland's strategy was faulty from the beginning when his campaign ran a blistering negative attack on Kasich.

Back in May before the first ad came out I said:

As we've been saying for awhile, every poll out there, even the ones showing Strickland ahead, also show the Governor with some very high negatives. They also show Kasich with a name ID problem.

This poses Strickland with a problem. He needs to fix his own image while negatively defining his opponent. Unfortunately for Ted, voters tend not to believe such opposite messages coming from the same source at once.

And they didn't. Ted's negatives never substantively improved. That killed him among Independents.

Sure, unemployment was in the dumps and he didn't have a record of success to latch onto. But he needed to at least use the power of television and the bully pulpit to push a more positive image to voters. While the DGA's presence faded in the final months, they and union allies were there at the beginning and could have handled the tar and feathering of Kasich. Strickland should have stayed positive and let others do the dirty work.

Instead, Strickland's strategy abandoned Independent voters. Maybe he hoped they would stay home. They didn't. They actually came out as a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2006.

While the race was tight, considering his poor strategy it was also the best result Strickland could have hoped for. Independents voted as expected and by failing to push a positive enough image to boost turnout by Dems and supportive Indies, Strickland did as good as could be expected.

It just wasn't good enough.

The trip to nowhere.

Maybe the President should have stayed home.

First, he went to India to, as commentator Rich Galen puts it, "[promise] them something he won't be able to deliver on - a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council."

Then things went bad. Really bad. From the AP:

Obama failed to achieve a free-trade deal with Korea that was to have been the biggest trophy of his trip, and instead of banding with America against China's currency manipulation, several countries aligned themselves against the U.S.

Galen provides his insights:

Let's take that free trade business first. When a President meets with another head of state to sign an agreement on whatever, the general rule is the staffs hammer out agreements on all the major issues, then leave one thing - should this be a comma or a semicolon - to the principals so they can pretend they had a hand in it.

But, Obama went to South Korea without an agreement on cars and beef imports, found that he couldn't charm his way into a deal, and so had slink away from the negotiating table having promised a Free Trade Agreement which would have added 70,000 U.S. jobs.

The only other time in my memory that a President went to sign a deal and left without making one was President Ronald Reagan's trip to Reykjavik, Iceland in 1986 to meet with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, but it was well known that there was no pre-agreement before they met in Iceland.

So Reagan didn't have something figured out with our sworn enemy of the cold war - and Obama couldn't work something out with someone who owes us for protecting them for 60 years against their communist neighbor to the north.

On top of it all, Obama then went to the G-20 to attack China for fudging with their currency - right after our own Fed director announced we were doing the same by printing $600 billion more in cash.

This trip screams ineptitude in every way.

Of course, coverage of the failures seems to have ranged from nonexistent to minimal. But that's par for the course.

2012 can't get here fast enough.

Boehner gets it - Part 19

It seems time after time we're being reminded how this House Republican majority is going to be run differently from the last time we were in power.

And that's a very good thing.

Last night Speaker-to-Be John Boehner spoke with the massive class of incoming freshmen to give them an idea of how they should plan to approach the work they'll do the next two years. The event was closed press, meaning no press was allowed, but these excerpted quotes provided to 3BP give us a better understanding of the kind attitude Republicans are taking as they head into power.

"I look at our Conference as a team. That's how I run my office, and it's how I approach the Conference as well.

"Everyone has a talent. Everyone has a place. I'm committed to finding a place for each of you, and putting you in a position to succeed.

"On a football team, a good coach knows every player -- their strengths, their weaknesses, their gifts -- and figures out how to put each player in a position to use those gifts for the good of the team.

"With apologies to our new colleague Jon Runyan, a Michigan Wolverine. . .I'm going to use a quote from the great Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes.

"Woody Hayes wasn't big on gloating after a win. He told his team (quote): 'Once we get winning, [if] anybody comes up to congratulate you, kick them in the shins, unless it’s a little old lady over 80. Pats on the back soften you.'

"I don't recommend kicking anyone, but I do think we need to take our accomplishments in stride. That's how I want to approach the coming year."

New study reveals true motivation behind push for 3-C passenger rail line....

We've always wondered how any rational individual believes it's a good idea to spend millions we don't have for something we won't use in the face of the biggest fiscal crisis in Ohio history.

Well, now we know their true motivations...

WASHINGTON, DC–A study released Monday by the American Public Transportation Association reveals that 98 percent of Americans support the use of mass transit by others.

"With traffic congestion, pollution, and oil shortages all getting worse, now is the time to shift to affordable, efficient public transportation," APTA director Howard Collier said. "Fortunately, as this report shows, Americans have finally recognized the need for everyone else to do exactly that."

[...]

"Expanding mass transit isn't just a good idea, it's a necessity," Holland said. "My drive to work is unbelievable. I spend more than two hours stuck in 12 lanes of traffic. It's about time somebody did something to get some of these other cars off the road."

[...]

"Improving public transportation will do a great deal of good, creating jobs, revitalizing downtown areas, and reducing pollution," Sager said. "It also means a lot to me personally, as it should cut 20 to 25 minutes off my morning drive."

[...]

Collier said he hopes the study serves as a wake-up call to Americans. In conjunction with its release, the APTA is kicking off a campaign to promote mass transit with the slogan, "Take The Bus... I'll Be Glad You Did."

The campaign is intended to de-emphasize the inconvenience and social stigma associated with using public transportation, focusing instead on the positives. Among these positives: the health benefits of getting fresh air while waiting at the bus stop, the chance to meet interesting people from a diverse array of low-paying service-sector jobs, and the opportunity to learn new languages by reading subway ads written in Spanish.

"People need to realize that public transportation isn't just for some poor sucker to take to work," Collier said. "He should also be taking it to the shopping mall, the supermarket, and the laundromat."

Yes, this article is from The Onion.

But it honestly had ya going for a bit, eh? Shows ya just how shady some of the 3-C disciples really are.

Look who bought and paid for the 2010 Republican wave!

David Freddoso used data provided from OpenSecrets to figure out once and for all which evil corporations and special interest groups paid to fund the GOP buttkickings this past midterm.

Check it out:

First suspect: the military-industrial complex!

• Defense Contractors: 55% Democrat, 44% Republican ($18 million)

Oh, really? Well, then, it must have been Wall Street! That’s it: Wall Street bought Congress for the GOP!

• Securities & Investment: 53% Democrat, 46% Republican ($8.2 million)

Oh. Well, even if Wall Street as a whole preferred Democrats, it must have been the real bad guys, those risky Hedge funds and exotic investors…

• Hedge Funds: 53% Democrat, 46% Republican ($6.8 million total)
• Venture Capital: 64% Democrat, 36% Republican ($6.4 million)
• Private Equity: 56% Democrat, 43% Republican ($4.6 million)

Huh. Well, then, it must have been the big health insurers and for-profit hospital corporations! They didn’t want reform! I know because I heard President Obama say so at least 64 times!

• HMO/Health services: 58% Democrats, 40% Republicans ($9.4 million)
• Pharmaceutical Manufacturing: 51% Democrats, 48% Republicans ($10.4 million)
• Medical Supply: 57% Democrats, 42% Republicans ($4.4 million)
• Hospitals/Nursing Homes: 63% Democrat, 36% Republican ($14.9 million)

Huh. Well…then it must have been those evil lobbyists that President Obama has been fighting against ever since he got to Washington! That’s it!

• Lobbyists: 65% Democrat, 34% Republican ($23.5 million)

What? You mean all that time I’ve spent watching Keith Olbermann hasn’t taught me any real facts???? You mean my head is now full of garbage and White House propaganda?

For good measure, here are a few industries that did, in fact, support Republicans (although most of them by narrow margins).

• ‘Tonsil Thieves‘ (Dentists): 37% Democrat, 62% Republican ($5.3 million)
• Health professionals: 48% Democrat, 50% Republican ($55 million)
• Credit/Finance: 48% Democrat, 52% Republican ($5.8 million)
• Commercial Banks: 41% Democrat, 59% Republican ($15.4 million)
• Insurance (Health, life and property): 48% Democrat, 52% Republican ($31.2 million)
• Agribusiness: 41% Democrat, 58% Republican ($40 million)

The challenges I see ahead for the new GOP House will be (1) reining in Agribusiness subsidies and (2) forcing banks to live without hope of future bailouts. The first is probably the bigger challenge, at least in the short run.

Probably not exactly what you were expecting, eh?

Et tu, Dr. Drew?

People of my generation are all aware of pop culture M.D., Dr. Drew.

Well, recently he was asked about his thoughts on Obamacare.

The money quote? "You will see a massive flight of physicians from the field."

The 3BP 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination poll - Version 4.0

Last time we did this, Mitch Daniels came in first place with 24% of the vote, followed by Chris Christie with 17% and Mitt in a distant third with 11%.

Well, now that the midterms are over and the 2012 season has officially begun, it means it's also time to give this poll another go and see how things have changed.

Obviously, this poll is far from scientific, but it's an interesting sampling of the kind of activists that care enough about politics to pay attention to current events and the power players currently maneuvering for the nomination.

Your government at work.

Ugh.

Members of a key panel created by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, better known as the stimulus bill, have scheduled a meeting on November 22 to consider ways to prevent “fraud, waste, and abuse of Recovery Act funds.” The meeting will be held at the super-luxe Ritz Carlton Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona.

The group is the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel, a sub-committee of the larger Recovery Accountability and Transparency board (sometimes known as the RAT board). The stimulus bill set up the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel, or RIAP, to make recommendations to identify and prevent waste of the bill’s $814 billion in stimulus spending.

“The purpose of the November 22, 2010 meeting is to allow the RIAP to have an open dialogue, with input from the public, on issues relating to fraud, waste, and abuse of Recovery Act funds,” says a notice in the Federal Register.

Haley's advantage.

Haley Barbour is running for President.

No, he hasn't announced yet, but his intentions are well understood.

The best thing that happened to Haley Barbour and his aspirations for the presidency came when Mark Sanford decided to be an idiot. When Sanford was knocked from his post as head of the Republican Governors Association, Barbour took over and turned it into a powerhouse.

When all was said and done, the RGA had plenty to brag about come November 3rd.

Republican Governors have won control of the majority of 2012 swing states. The following states that held gubernatorial races are considered swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The RGA spent $49.5 million in these 10 swing states we deemed critical to 2012.

And while it's not a swing state, the RGA also was forced to move into South Carolina and provide some reinforcements to ensure Nikki Haley's victory.

Hmmm.

There's something awfully interesting about some of the states listed above.

Iowa. Nevada. South Carolina.

Well, it just so happens that the GOP primary calendar undertook some slight revisions this past year in order to guarantee four states had the first primaries.

New Hampshire. Iowa. Nevada. South Carolina.

Additionally, the new calendar emphasizes the importance of delaying the beginning of primary season and ensuring there isn't a kind of national primary that provides a candidate with an insurmountable lead.

Now no one would think a man with as heavy a drawel as Barbour could compete in New Hampshire. But Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina? Those seem like decent possibilities.

Now take into consideration the massive amount of political capital Barbour gained among the new Governors in each of those three states by investing so heavily into their races. Branstad, Sandoval, and Haley all owe Haley Barbour. And they owe him big.

Is it enough to bring a hugely important endorsement? That much is unclear, but Barbour clearly has every reason and right to put the pressure on all three.

Now consider what happens if Barbour is able to finagle the early endorsements of people like Corbett, Kasich, and Scott in PA, OH, and FL. In the horserace that is primary politics, that provides quite a momentum shift.

No one doubts Barbour can raise money. No one doubts his abilities as a tactician. His record in Mississippi is exemplary. The only question is his background as a lobbyist and I'm not quite convinced that's the Achilles Heel many seem to believe.

If Barbour can manage to pull down these endorsements, watch out. Without a doubt, he'll be the man to beat for the 2012 GOP nomination.

UPDATE: Here's Fox's recent interview and profile of Barbour as they begun their discussion of likely GOP presidential candidates...

Ya don't say!

So when you yank requirements for big labor, costs of public projects go down?

Who woulda thunk it?

In a final slap to the face of the evil Richard Murray of the OSFC, we have this bit of good and completely unshocking news:

Construction bids at the state schools for the deaf and blind came in 22 percent below bids that were rejected this summer, and one group says it's because workers are no longer required to be union.

The lower bids for dormitories come after design changes and a less-competitive construction environment, which drove up the state's cost estimate 10 percent, an official said.

The Ohio School Facilities Commission solicited bids in July to build new dormitories at the Ohio State School for the Deaf and the Ohio State School for the Blind, but contractors' proposals came in 46 percent over projections.

Nonunion construction companies said a "project labor agreement" that mandated union labor caused the overruns. The agreement had been ordered by commission Executive Director Richard Murray, a former union official who was the focus of a critical inspector general's report this summer for his dealings promoting unions.

So you remove PLAs and costs shrink for taxpayers? Amazing.

I think we may be onto something here...

The Facepalm Presidency Strikes Again

Sometimes there are stories that sound so ridiculous that they can't be real.

For example, there's no way the White House would blatantly fudge data in order to promote their own political agenda at the expense of the livelihoods of thousands of Americans.

Except it happened.

The Interior Department's inspector general says the White House edited a drilling safety report in a way that made it falsely appear that scientists and experts supported the administration's six-month ban on new drilling.

The inspector general says the editing changes resulted "in the implication that the moratorium recommendation had been peer reviewed." But it hadn't been. The scientists were only asked to review new safety measures for offshore drilling.

The investigation is the latest in a string of incidents where the Obama administration has been accused of overstating the science behind official reports and political decisions made after the massive Gulf oil spill.

This is about a really, really stupid idea.

The 3-C passenger rail project is a really, really stupid idea.

With all the discussion about turning down $400 million and where it would go, everyone debating the idea has allowed themselves to get distracted from that very important point.

It's simple.

Ohio can't afford it.
There is no demand for it.

First off, let's focus on why we can't afford it.

From the Dispatch:

...the $400 million grant covered only about three-fourths of the cost of upgrading tracks and buying new trains. And that doesn't even count the $17 million or more per year in subsidies that would be required to keep it running.

So under the original projections, Ohio will need to pony up about $135 million more in start-up costs in addition to the "$17 million or more in subsidies".

Additionally, the likelihood that these costs are accurate is also in doubt. Look at one of the largest government infrastructure boondoggles in American history - Boston's Big Dig. The Big Dig also happened to be contracted out to the exact same company that is right now responsible for Ohio's 3-C project - Parsons Brinckerhoff. This is the same Parsons Brinckerhoff that had to pay $407 million in restitution after the Big Dig for its poor oversight of subcontractors. The Big Dig was initially supposed to cost $6 billion in 1982 dollars. It's eventual cost? $22 billion. A 367% increase over the original projection. Now let's just assume the 3-C projection is only off by 1/6 of that - 61%. That would require Ohio to pay $461 million to start-up the project (the $135 million + 61% of original 535 million projection).

Obviously, Ohio can't afford that.

But forget that projection. Under the current projections, the cost of building the train system is far beyond our capabilities. Ohio is facing an $8 billion budget deficit. Spending yet more taxpayer dollars in the face of this massive deficit goes against every sensibility. It makes me wonder if advocates for the train really comprehend just how deep a hole Ohio has found itself.

Now onto demand.

These are 3 shots of traffic on I-71 this morning around 8:30 - rush hour.

If the 3-C is going to be successful, people have to want to ride it.

Roads would have to be jammed and people would be clamoring for an alternative.

They aren't.

Once again, we'll let the Dispatch handle this one:

Initial estimates that the trains would average 39 mph and that the trip from Cincinnati to Cleveland would take at least five hours and 20 minutes drew derision; a later estimate by ODOT, based on a one-page computer analysis, revised the average speed to 50 mph but has been questioned. And it depends on cooperation among three different railroads, which can't be guaranteed. And it's still slower than driving.

It's still slower than driving. That's an incredibly important point.

Now, no one is saying ridership will be zero. Of course there may be some that don't have cars that need to use it on a daily basis to get to a job in Dayton or Cleveland. Then again, those same people need to find a way to get to the train station every day. And surely people would utilize it to get to a Reds or Indians game - provided they don't mind spending the cash for a hotel room since the schedule doesn't allow for a return trip after the game.

"But what about the jobs?", they say.

It's not the government's responsibility to subsidize employment for the sake of making sure someone has a job.

If Ohio can't afford the project and the demand for the train is too low, the project is doomed to failure. All we're left with is yet more government welfare in the form of subsidized jobs to manage the train system.

And that's with an $8 billion deficit staring us in the face.

Broken window fallacy, anyone?

Finally, the Dispatch brings up an interesting point when discussing how determined Governor Strickland is to see money spent for the $25 million preparation study, despite the fact Kasich has asked for it to be suspended.

Strickland might sincerely believe that all the variables would line up in the train's favor and that the 3C project would draw Ohioans to take the train in unprecedented numbers, spurring enough jobs and economic development to pay for itself. Or he might value the chance to keep handing out lucrative contracts for his last two months in office.

Strickland interested in taking care of special interests? What? Noooo. Perish the thought.

The reality is this - the 3-C passenger rail project is a really, really stupid idea.

Kasich is right to stop it.

Boehner gets it.

When the Republicans regained the majority last week, there was an oft-repeated request from conservatives.

"Don't screw this up again."

Well, Speaker-to-be John Boehner is giving every indication that this time will truly be different.

The latest signal came from the following...

For the first time in years, House lawmakers will soon have the chance to vote on a standalone measure to increase the federal debt limit next year under the new Republican majority — a vote that’s shaping up as the first early test of the GOP’s commitment to spending restraint.

The House Republican leader, Rep. John A. Boehner of Ohio, will give lawmakers a chance for a direct vote on raising the debt limit, spokesman Michael Steel told the Washington Times.

That would be a break with the recent tactic of burying the debt limit increase in parliamentary maneuvers — a way to shield vulnerable lawmakers from having to take the unpopular vote — and would instantly give leverage to those in Congress hoping to impose immediate spending cuts.

This is exactly right.

And the beginning of a new Republican majority.

Popularity and principle

It's rare when both go hand in hand in politics.

After all, it's not always easy to do what's right when the opposition is screaming bloody murder.

Unless you're Chris Christie.

In what may be a preview of John Kasich's first year, Chris Christie made what some would call painful cuts in state government in order to balance the budget. He also faced off against the teachers unions and began his fight for a reformed pension system.

Usually, such cuts woud be demonized by the opposition and turn public opinion against Christie.

Well, Christie was demonized. But the people love him anyway.

In a new poll released by Quinnipiac, Chris Christie's approval rating stands at 51-38 overall and 56-32 among Independents. Christie even gets 22% approval from Democrats.

Compare that to New Jersey's two Democratic Senators who are both underwater in their approval ratings.

What about Obama? He comes in at 46-50 overall and 42-55 among Independents.

In New Jersey.

The world is upside down.

One step closer to derailment of the 3-C...

Under a Kasich administration, there will not be a 3-C passenger rail system in Ohio.

That's simply the way it is.

But that isn't stopping Governor Strickland from continuing to spend your taxpayer dollars to help fund its development.

Today, the Governor-elect sent two letters, one to Strickland and one to the President in an effort to cease the 3-C once and for all, and to redistribute the federal dollars Ohio won to more economically beneficial projects.

From the letter to Obama:

Passenger rail is not Ohio’s most pressing infrastructure concern at this time. Instead, Ohio’s existing freight rail and highway transportation infrastructure has significant upgrades needs. Therefore, I request that you make provisions for the $400 million to be used to support other vital transportation infrastructure projects in Ohio.

In the event that you cannot accede to my request, I ask that you take no actions to spend the funds allocated to Ohio so that these funds can go toward reducing the federal government’s $1.4 trillion deficit.

Does $400 million make a significant dent in the federal deficit? Relatively speaking, no. But that's not the point. Federal money is your money. Plain and simple. Spending it for the sake of spending it is partly what got our country into such a fiscal mess. If the federal government is unwilling to bend the rules so Ohio can spend our tax dollars in ways that have been proven to enhance economic well-being, then the right thing to do is to write 'return to sender' on the envelope and send it back.

Ted Strickland has a responsibility to look out for the best interests of Ohio's citizens. Each day he fails to cancel all contracts regarding the 3-C is another day where your money is being wasted. He'd be better off simply turning it all into cash and burning it. At least the Statehouse wouldn't have to spend as much on the heating bill.

Join the Derail the 3-C facebook group by clicking here. 

UPDATE: Strickland said no. Again. 

From the Dispatch:

"There is nothing to fear from obtaining the good information that this study will provide to policy makers in the near term as well as the long term," Strickland spokeswoman Kelly Schlissberg said. "So even if the governor-elect chooses not to support rail when he takes office, future governors or legislators with a vision for a modern Ohio will have better information as a result of this work."

That response is downright insulting to the intelligence of taxpayers. For pete's sake, Ohio is facing an $8 billion deficit. Should Ohio really be spending 10s of millions to maybe give future governors a potential plan in case the federal government decides to throw $400 million down the drain again? And what good would this potential plan provide? Without a doubt, variables will change over the next few years. Technologies will evolve and infrastructure will develop. So an old plan will be of use to whom? No one. That's who.

I just don't get Strickland's angle on this. You don't agree with Kasich that it should be built? Fine. But continuing to waste dollars out of spite isn't exactly the way a Governor should want to go out.

Ok, that didn't work too well.

Back in August I wrote the following:

Democrats are starting to accept the fact that they won't win on the economy, jobs, or health care. So that means it's time to start throwing everything at the wall and see what sticks. First up? Social Security.

I went on to quote an article detailing the coordination at the time between Democratic campaign leadership and their candidates in working to make social security a campaign issue.

This week alone, Democrats are set to host 100 town halls centered on keeping Social Security intact. And they're putting together TV advertisements to air against Republican lawmakers who have supported privatization.

We saw many of these attacks in Ohio races. Space hit Gibbs. Wilson hit Johnson.

Clearly, it didn't work, and I said as much back then. Based on the issues most important to voters, I stated the following:

While the new strategy dreamed up by the Democrats may briefly distract from the issues that matter most to voters, it won't have any significant effect on the elections in November. Does that mean Social Security reform doesn't need addressed? Of course not.

It's simply not a winning issue for the fall.

Turns out I was right. Just ask Politico:

Voters over 65 favored Republicans last week by a 21-point margin after flirting with Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections and favoring John McCain by a relatively narrow 8-point margin in 2008.


Concerned by changes to Medicare and compelled by a Republican Party that promised a return to America’s glory days, seniors played a crucial — and often understated — role in races across the country. They were unswayed by ubiquitous Democratic warnings about Republican changes to Social Security. And they put a series of campaigns out of reach for Democrats.

Ya can't blame the Democrats for trying their scare tactics over social security privatization. After all, with a record like theirs, the politics of distraction and fear is about all they had left.

The answer.

President Obama has visited Ohio 12 times since he was inaugurated.

That was the most of any state with a major competitive race this year.

And John Kasich still won.

Late last week Fox News Opinion submitted their own thoughts on just how important the victory was from the perspective of the 2012 election:

With the dust still settling from Tuesday's historic election results, the pundits are busy sizing up what to make of it all. The shift of power in the U.S. House, the national gains by Republicans, the impact of the Tea Party and the implications of all of the above are hot topics. And names like Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Ron Johnson are dominating the discourse.

Still, with all due respect to the field of this week's victors, the storyline of one winner stands above the rest: John Kasich is the governor-elect of Ohio.

But more telling than just his win is how he did it: by withstanding an Obama onslaught; turning back liberal fear attacks with a message of hope; and offering a leaner, more efficient alternative to big government run amuck.

In short, if Barack Obama’s spend and tax presidency for the past two years is a question, John Kasich emerged Tuesday night as the logical answer.

Now this isn't to say that John Kasich should run for President. Instead, this is about how to counter the President's likely tactics come time to run for re-election. And John Kasich's campaign provides a blueprint to whomever will be our nominee.

[...]

In delivering a campaign and message that were pitch-perfect, the son of a mailman with working class roots provided a blueprint on going toe-to-toe with Obama and coming out on top.

Kasich took the president’s best shot – 12 of them to be exact – and never strayed from the notion that results trump rhetoric.

Of course, it helps that Kasich is Kasich. His record of results is impressive. In particular, as chairman of the U.S. House Budget Committee through much of the '90s, he’s remembered fondly as the last man to balance our nation’s budget. At the time, it was a feat that hadn’t been accomplished since a man walked on the moon.

Today, thanks to the Obama administration’s spending spree, it’s an achievement that seems less likely than catching a cow jumping over the same planet.

Ohio is the presidential firewall. Of that there is no dispute.

Since 1860, no Republican has won the presidency without also winning Ohio. If Obama can win the Buckeye state, history is clearly on his side.

Kasich is now the President's opposition in one of the most vital states of the 2012 election. And the Governor-elect's style of governing will be the polar opposite of Obama's - Principle over rhetoric. Hope over fear.

It's on.

So goes Ohio, so goes the nation.

Yes, I'm still reveling in this...

New twitter handle and other odds and ends....

For those on that follow me on twitter, take note of my new twitter handle.

DJTablesauce is retired. The new handle is Jon3BP.

For those considering joining twitter, I highly recommend keeping your handle as short as possible as it better lends itself to retweeting (or forwarding) of your tweets. With only 140 characters to work with, you have to make each one count if you want others to retweet you!

While I've got ya, I want to apologize for the less than normal amount of blog posts post-election. As you can imagine, there is a bit of a Victory Hangover that wears you down a bit. But don't worry, we'll be back to full-go soon!

I also want to thank everyone for reading through this election season. Traffic has gone absolutely through the roof and all the feedback has been fantastic.

Finally, I want to thank everyone who introduced themselves to me during the last few days of the campaign season and at the Victory celebration in Columbus. It was great to meet so many of my readers and your kind words were sincerely appreciated. 

How could things possibly get worse?

[The Ohio Democratic Party was] soliciting what I call the "soft crowd", figuring we weren't that educated - figuring we weren't able to really fight for ourselves - so they picked on the weak in order to strengthen themselves.

These are the words of a hired "volunteer" for the Ohio Democratic Party after getting screwed by Redfern's 'well-oiled GOTV machie' that promised them cash for canvassing.

Republicans were still reeling from Tuesday's victory when we heard about this story. It spread like wildfire. Despite all the claims of a ground game fueled by inspired volunteers, there was always discussion of our opposition hiring their help rather than relying on "paid volunteers".

And here we had evidence splashed all over television news stations in Columbus.

But it went far beyond just Columbus.

It's Cincinnati. It's Cleveland. It's everywhere.

They make you think, why are the Republicans in office? Because we ain't doing what we're supposed to be doing as Democrats. Maybe I need to switch over.

Glorious.

This is Chris Redfern's Ohio Democratic Party.

A ground game built from smoke and mirrors.
Massive losses across the board.
And this ultimate embarrassment spread far and wide across Ohio.

Every day Chris Redfern remains in office is an insult to every sane Democrat in Ohio.

Ohio's Rise in the U.S. House

It's sounds a little crazy, but come next January the partisan advantage in the Ohio congressional delegation may switch from 10-8 Dems to 13- 5 GOP.

 I wrote that in February in a post about why Bill Johnson can beat Charlie Wilson.

Come January, Ohio's congressional delegation will be 13-5 GOP.

And Ohio will have its first Speaker of the House since Nicholas Longworth presided from 1925-1931.

But one higher profile member of the delegation is one from my hometown district - the 12th. Pat Tiberi.

From the Dispatch:

On Monday, Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township was a backbencher in the U.S. House and a relatively junior member of the Ohio congressional delegation.

When the 112th Congress convenes in January, Tiberi will enter the Capitol as a member of the inner circle of presumptive House Speaker John Boehner and likely will become a powerful subcommittee chairman on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.

[...]


"I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it, but it is certainly not lost on me the position Ohio will be in, that I will be in, and being close to the speaker of the House, that doesn't happen to just anybody and everybody in their lifetime," Tiberi said.

 Indeed. And it's no surprise that Tiberi gets it. It's great to win, but what matters is what you do with it. 

We'll be watching.

That'll show ya.

Over the past few months, a lot of you have come to 3BP in search of a better understanding of the polls that covered the Senate and Governor's races in Ohio.

While I had problems with certain polls and how they may have been conducted, there was always one constant - I told you to look at the average of all polls to see where the race really stands.

So, how did that turn out? Well, let's take a look at the final Real Clear Politics poll averages...

The RCP average was 0.2% off the final tally.

Not bad at all.

So what about how each candidate did by Party?

There was some worry near the end that the obsessive focus on Strickland's NRA endorsement was going to change the course of the race.

Turns out that wasn't the case. Republicans still solidly backed Kasich.

I also repeatedly warned that bringing the President to Ohio so many times when he was so incredibly unpopular among Independents could damage Strickland's chances. And ultimately, it showed that Strickland was sacrificing Independents in order to boost his standing among his base.

Considering the partisan breakdown in the CNN exit poll of 3,300 respondents, it looks like I was right.

Kasich won Independents by 16 points. Impressive.

And how important was that enthusiasm gap? Well, Chairman Redfern wanted us to believe that even if it was real, the Democrat ground game was vastly superior and would win the day.

It didn't.

From the Dispatch:

Pre-election predictions by Democratic officials that their expensive get-out-the-vote machine would overcome an "enthusiasm gap" were rendered empty boasts by a profound lack of interest among their voters in the midterm elections, particularly in urban counties where the party needed a big turnout.


Less than 48 percent of registered voters cast ballots, the worst participation in a statewide election since 2002. And the 10 counties - including Franklin County - that had the largest decline in total votes Tuesday from the 2006 election account for 57 percent of Ohio's registered Democrats.


The sparse turnout doomed Gov. Ted Strickland's chances of re-election against Republican John Kasich, the first winning gubernatorial candidate since 1978 to fail to get at least 50 percent of the vote.

Over the course of the campaign I repeatedly stated how the Governor's incredibly low approval ratings were going to doom his cause. I said polls that showed Democrats not liking the direction Ohio was heading weren't going to show up. Obama may have rallied the far left portions of the base to vote for Ted, but the machine sputtered out.

So, what does all this show?

1. Listen to all polls - even ones you don't like - in order to gauge the state of a race.
2. Independents matter.
3. Tearing down an opponent doesn't work if you aren't able to sell a good brand at the same time.

I'll likely have more post-mortems as we move forward.

Maybe after the glow of victory finally wears off.

One post today.

I told you so.

Congratulations Governor-Elect Kasich!

If you've been following my twitter feed, you know this already.

But I'm calling it.

John Kasich will be the next Governor of Ohio.

Tomorrow is a New Day. And a start of a New Way.

Tonight!

I'll be at the Ohio GOP victory party this evening as results pour in.

That means liveblogging will be a bit difficult.

In that case, make sure you are following me on twitter by clicking here.

I'll do my best to keep everyone updated on what I'm hearing and seeing.

This is going to be a great night, everyone.

Make sure you've voted. And push out those final calls, e-emails, and facebook wall postings to make sure your friends, neighbors, and families have done their duty.

See you on twitter tonight.

Let's win this.

And make tomorrow A New Day.

Cuyahoga lowers expections again...

Things just went from bad to worse for Democrats.

Earlier, we highlighted the low voter turnout in Cuyahoga County. Things were far below expectations with only 430,000 total voters expected.

Well, Cuyahoga County Board of Elections officials just lowered expectations again.

The director of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has lowered her expectations for voter turnout in the county for this midterm election.

Director Jane Platten said that based on the number of votes cast by 2 p.m., she only expects closer to 410,000 ballots by the time the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Earlier, she predicted more than 430,000 of the county's 978,268 registered voters would turn out.

But by 2 p.m. today, only 10.5 percent of the voters had been heard from. Between 42 and 44 percent of the 205,000 absentee ballots had been returned

Only 44% returned their absentee ballots? Goodness gracious. Apparently ODP Chairman Redfern's GOTV machine isn't quite what he brags about.

I'm reminded of something I wrote way back in September of this year in a post highlighting the massive challenge facing Ted Strickland in the fallout from the DiMora/Russo scandals.

...we can't overstate the importance of these scandals in Cuyahoga County. Not only has their GOTV machine been heavily damaged on their home turf, but residents of Cuyahoga County have become even more turned off by politics and the corruption of the left. Sure, some may not vote for Kasich, but they'll be hard pressed to pull the lever for Strickland.

Told ya.

So how is turnout going so far?

Early indications show the enthusiasm gap is alive and well in Ohio.

It seems like Cuyahoga County, the one county Democrats can't afford to stay home, is deciding to do just that. Apparently Obama's sparsely attended rally was indicative of turnout.

Today's election is moving along smoothly with a light voter turnout.

Board of Elections Director Jane Platten said that by 10 a.m., just under 5 percent of the county's registered voters had cast ballots. Another 205,000 absentee ballots had been returned by 10 a.m., representing another 20 percent of the total voter registration list.

Platten said she expects that about 430,000 votes will be cast by the end of the day, which is light considering the hotly contested county government race and the neck-and-neck governor's race at stake. There are 978,268 registered voters in Cuyahoga County in this election.

For those keeping track, a turnout of 430,000 voters would be about 25,000 fewer voters than turned out back in 2006 and much worse than what Democrats were expecting. In other words, the mighty Democratic GOTV machine seems to be sputtering out.

In fact, I think this sums everything up pretty well.

7 hours to go.

It's 12:30pm.

It's time to be the wave.

Vote.

Gallup: Hey, check out that ginormous enthusiasm gap.

This is just mindboggling.

63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats' expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party's supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

19 points higher than where we were in 1994.

How is that even possible?

A 19 point gap between Republicans and Democrats. That's 10 points higher than what we saw in 1994.

Remember when Democrats said passing Obamacare would swing voters back over to their side for the midterm election?

How's that working out for ya?

UPDATE: Speaking of Obamacare's real impact, this new post from Jonah Goldberg at NRO was particularly appropos.

Change “turkeys could fly” to “ObamaCare would be really popular” and you’ll have a pretty good sense of David Axelrod’s mood today:

Last night.

Here's a little clip of what you may have missed last night in Cincinnati at the Kasich/Boehner/Portman election eve rally...

Watch out for this guy. He looks like he wishes he could be trouble.

This is an Ohio Democratic Party  "voter protection" agent.

On his back there is a sign that says, "If found, please return to the Jersey Shore."

You can almost smell the Drakkar, can't you?

About that ditch.

The President likes to shout about his ditch metaphor at every campaign stop.

Well, Mr. President, it's what happened after that ditch that has people jumping at the bit to elect Republicans to congress.

Now go vote. Remind your friends. E-mail your family. Post it on facebook.

Is Obama a Keynesian?

Tough question, eh? Not really.

Fortunately, I'm confident 98% of my readers wouldn't answer it the way so many did at the Rally for Sanity when the jokers at Second City asked it.

Today.

Today is the day we can make a difference.

Ohio has had enough spineless leadership. Enough of putting politics before principle. Enough of Ted Strickland. Enough of Zack Space. Enough of Charlie Wilson. Enough of Mary Jo Kilroy.

Today is our Independence Day.



Let's go win this.

Be the wave.

Election Eve

Tomorrow we vote.

Our battle is not yet won, as we have much to do tomorrow to turn our base out and take back Ohio.

But as we wait for tomorrow to arrive, I'm reminded of a speech read to campaign workers for President Bush in Ohio on Election Eve in 2004.

"...we in it shall be remember’d; we few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he today that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile, this day shall gentle his condition: And gentlemen in England now a-bed shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day."

For those fighting the good fight, remember these words as you wake up at 4am Tuesday morning to go canvas one last swing precinct, remember them as you struggle to finish calling one last GOTV list, remember them late Tuesday night when you can turn to your friend, raise your glass, and say, "we did it".

Now let's go win this.

Gallup says 60+. Could it be?

The final generic congressional poll from Gallup showed its 5th poll in a row showing a massive lead for Republicans in their race to take back the majority.

The consistency in the poll is of particular interest.

When a poll is that consistent, it's hard to argue with its accuracy.

So what does a 15 point advantage mean?

Ask Gallup:

Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

60+? Sounds ridiculous, right?

Surely, Gallup has to be wrong.

Wellll, history seems to side pretty heavily with the well respected pollster. Check out their accuracy over the years:

Tomorrow is going to be fun.

One day before polls open, Strickland annoys commuters...

Moments ago I was wondering where Strickland had been all day. After all, Team Strickland has been quiet all day.

Then I found this article in the Toledo Blade describing his day.

His sad, sad day.

For example...

Mr. Strickland, speaking to about 30 people at the local Laborers' hall in Lorain, Ohio, said Mr. Kasich has reacted to his narrowing lead in the polls by complaining about the tone of the campaign.

Even big labor seems to have shrunk to tiny labor a day before election day.

He also spent some time at a well traveled train stop...

The governor greeted commuters passing through the Regional Transit Authority's train stop under Cleveland's Tower City building, shaking hands for about an hour. RTA officials said about 35,000 people pass through the train station every day. 

While the Governor could expect plenty of support in Democrat central, he didn't make everyone happy.

One man passing through the train station jumped away and threw up his hands when the governor tried to greet him. That man could not be stopped for comment.

And the desperation depicted in this photo speaks for itself...

What does a man look like who has given up all hope of victory?

This.



In all fairness, props to Lee Fisher for having some fun on his way out the door.

Also, thanks to Ted Strickland and Chris Redfern for making sure he was Portman's opponent. You guys are the best.

Shocking Video: Ohio Democratic Party giving away food to get supporters to Early Vote...

Wow. Just. Wow.

This was the scene yesterday during and just after yesterday's Obama rally in Cleveland.



Fortunately, only 683 Democrats voted early yesterday in Cuyahoga County. That's down 86% from the 5000 a day that were voting in the final days in 2008.

But that doesn't mean this isn't shady politics. Is it illegal? Maybe. Maybe not. Outside of the Obama event, Ohio Democratic Party volunteers were telling Obama supporters to go early vote and get some free food. That sounds to me like offering something of value in exchange for a vote. That's illegal. It reminded me of the $5 given to Democrat volunteers to get out the vote in Athens County just last year. Back then Chris Redfern scolded the Athens Dem Chairwoman for such a practice. Now he embraces it.

At the very least, this needs brought to the Ohio Elections Commission soon after this election is over.

This is what we're up against, folks.

Let's beat them.

Three new polls - Independents breaking hard to Kasich (thanks Obama!)

John Kasich is going to win tomorrow. Of that, I have no doubt.

New polls out today show the race to be tight, but all favoring Kasich.

In the interest of time, I won't do my usual all encompassing analysis of all three polls, so here is the quick rundown.

The tightest is Quinnipiac. They show the race as a relative tie, coming in at 47-46 in favor of Kasich. The most shocking number? A 21-point lead for Kasich among Independents. For what it's worth, Barack Obama won Ohio 51-47 with an 8 point advantage among Independents. If Kasich's lead is anywhere among Indies is anywhere close to that 21 point margin, this could be a bigger win than expected.

Fox News is next. They show Kasich up 48-44. Kasich keeps a sizeable lead among Independents, coming in at 49-34. Among those that disapprove of Obama, Kasich wins 77-13. Unfortunately for Strickland, Obama's approval is at a net -17 overall and -43 among Independents. One interesting number, by 53-33 Independents support the Tea Party. Maybe one of these days the Dems will learn not to disrespect them.

And then, of course, comes the final Ohio Poll. The poll shows Kasich leading 52% to 47.7%. While the Ohio Poll didn't provide any crosstabs this time, there is one very important stat that must be given attention. Since 1994, the Ohio Poll has been right in 34 out of 34 statewide contests. Just sayin'.

The Real Clear Politics average has yet to be updated as of writing of this post, but it should come out to 46.2% for Strickland and 49% for Kasich.

I like those odds.

Keep making the calls. Send e-mails. Hell, even use your wall on facebook to tell friends to vote Republican tomorrow.

Every vote counts. And while things look good, we still need to work our tails off to leave no stone unturned.

Let's go win this.

We're not the enemy.

You may have heard about the President's recent interview on Univision where he identified the GOP as his "enemy".

Specifically, he said, “If Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, ‘We’re gonna punish our enemies, and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us’ — if they don’t see that kind of upsurge in voting in this election — then I think it’s going to be harder. And that’s why I think it’s so important that people focus on voting on November 2nd.”

Enemies.

Coming from the leader of the free world, that identifier brings with it a strong connotation.

And John Boehner has a serious problem with that. At the Kasich/Portman/Boehner rally this evening, the future Speaker is slated to state the following:

“Ladies and gentlemen, we have a president in the White House who referred to Americans who disagree with him as ‘our enemies.’ Think about that. He actually used that word. When Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush used the word ‘enemy,’ they reserved it for global terrorists and foreign dictators — enemies of the United States. Enemies of freedom. Enemies of our country.

“Today, sadly, we have president who uses the word ‘enemy’ for fellow Americans — fellow citizens. He uses it for people who disagree with his agenda of bigger government — people speaking out for a smaller, more accountable government that respects freedom and allows small businesses to create jobs. Mr. President, there's a word for people who have the audacity to speak up in defense of freedom, the Constitution, and the values of limited government that made our country great. We don't call them ‘enemies.’ We call them ‘patriots.’”

Amen.

1 day.

One day left.

As John Kasich said today at his hometown rally in Westerville, this election is a perfect excuse to call up someone you haven't spoken to in awhile.

And ask them to vote Republican.

Ohio has some fantastic candidates this year. Kasich. Portman. Yost. Stivers. Johnson. And on and on....

Every indication shows this is going to be a wave election, but only with your help.

Be the wave.

Here's a fantastic scene from Hoosiers, and I offer my sincerest apologies to any liberals who feel I'm comparing them to an ambiguous large Indiana high school that is doomed to be defeated by the pesky boys from Hickory.