John Kasich is going to win tomorrow. Of that, I have no doubt.
New polls out today show the race to be tight, but all favoring Kasich.
In the interest of time, I won't do my usual all encompassing analysis of all three polls, so here is the quick rundown.
The tightest is Quinnipiac. They show the race as a relative tie, coming in at 47-46 in favor of Kasich. The most shocking number? A 21-point lead for Kasich among Independents. For what it's worth, Barack Obama won Ohio 51-47 with an 8 point advantage among Independents. If Kasich's lead is anywhere among Indies is anywhere close to that 21 point margin, this could be a bigger win than expected.
Fox News is next. They show Kasich up 48-44. Kasich keeps a sizeable lead among Independents, coming in at 49-34. Among those that disapprove of Obama, Kasich wins 77-13. Unfortunately for Strickland, Obama's approval is at a net -17 overall and -43 among Independents. One interesting number, by 53-33 Independents support the Tea Party. Maybe one of these days the Dems will learn not to disrespect them.
And then, of course, comes the final Ohio Poll. The poll shows Kasich leading 52% to 47.7%. While the Ohio Poll didn't provide any crosstabs this time, there is one very important stat that must be given attention. Since 1994, the Ohio Poll has been right in 34 out of 34 statewide contests. Just sayin'.
The Real Clear Politics average has yet to be updated as of writing of this post, but it should come out to 46.2% for Strickland and 49% for Kasich.
I like those odds.
Keep making the calls. Send e-mails. Hell, even use your wall on facebook to tell friends to vote Republican tomorrow.
Every vote counts. And while things look good, we still need to work our tails off to leave no stone unturned.
Let's go win this.
HAHAHAHA!
ReplyDelete"Strickland is stuck at 42%"
"Strickland has flatlined."
"Strickland is stuck at 45%"
"The DGA is pulling out of Ohio"
"Strickland can't come back"
"Strickland can't raise his numbers and lower Kasich's"
Yep, it's the Jon Keeling greatest hits of completely off the mark statements.
BTW, did you not catch that Kasich has LOST support with GOP likely voters in a week? Thanks State Rep. Danny Bubp!
Oh, and those Indies? Yeah, they were WAAAAAYYY more enthuised about voting in 2008 than they are this year. They're not likely to turnout out. Some advantage.
Don't forget this gem!
ReplyDelete"Strickland will win by 20 points" -Modern Esquire
Except I wrote that in May 2009, and obviously meant, if those numbers stay.
ReplyDeleteSo, at best, you got me on something a year and a half ago.
Good job!
that's what the numbers were at the time
ReplyDeleteSo that logic is only valid when you use it? Got it.
Nice half empty rally with the president yesterday.