In a poll against a generic Republican opponent, Obama is trailing 55-40 in a new poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.
Even if their sample is adjusted to be equal to that of the 2008 election, the President would still lose 45-51.
The most apparent challenge for the President is among Independents where he loses them 59-32. The partisan breakdowns should be a bit scary, too. The Republican pulls in 95% of the vote while Obama only gets 77% of Democrats.
Now sure, going up against a generic candidate rather than one with personal flaws and specific policies to attack is a whole different story. But no Obama supporter can be happy with where their candidate stands at this point in Ohio. As far as starting points go, it doesn't get much worse.
The big question is how the electorate will change over the next two years and whether the economy will improve enough to provide the President the necessary boost to woo Independents and bring Democrats back home.
According to Jim Pethokoukis, a new survey by the Feds of 43 economic forecasters showed unemployment will average 9.3% in 2011 and 8.7% in 2012. Is that kind of slow improvement enough? My bet is no.
We have a long way to go and an immeasurable number of variables to still be determined, but without a doubt, the President is in trouble in Ohio.
Maybe a 13th visit would help.