Thursday, August 11, 2011

The Recent Cost of Obamanomics



Lest you think that the downgrade of the United States is responsible for the downturn in the economy and the stock market, let me provide my perspective.

One week before S&P downgraded the U.S., the second quarter GDP report was released. Not only did the second quarter disappoint (1.3% growth vs. expectations of 1.8%), but the original estimate of first quarter GDP growth was revised from 1.9% growth to 0.4%. Over the next two days, we also saw weaker than expected reports on the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, the University of Michigan Confidence Index, The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, Personal Income and Personal Spending. The Federal Reserve confirmed this weakness earlier this week when Helicopter Ben (Bernanke) announced that it will keep short term interest rates near zero out to mid-2013. The fact that the Fed feels the need to do this when interest rates on Treasuries are below 1% for Treasuries with a 5 year maturity or less, is concerning.

What does it tell you when near historic lows in interest rates can't revive the economy? I guess Obama's "Summer of Recovery" was more about Summer than Recovery. It can't help that we have one of the most anti-free market Presidents in history. With the prospect of higher taxes on individuals (small business) and higher taxes on corporations (already the highest in the developed world), no wonder job creation has stalled. The prospect of the "Employer Mandate" requiring businesses to either offer an acceptable level of health insurance coverage or pay a fee of $2,000 for each full time employee for businesses with more than 50 employees, will also have a negative impact on job creation.

The most recent cost of Obamanomics is the toll of the evidence of economic weakness rearing its ugly face, on financial assets. From the market close as of July 28, 2011 to yesterdays market close, the Standard & Poor's Index has lost 13.8% of its value. That's about $1.7 trillion in terms of loss of value.

How is that "Hope and Change" working for your 401(k)?



10 comments:

  1. My 401k was fried 3 and a half years ago, before Obama took office, but he hasn't exactly done a lot to help it out...

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  2. I know how you feel. I feel like Sisyphus.

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  3. I'm glad I dont plan to use mine for a couple of decades...

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  4. TARP was under Bush, not Obama... Is Ohio anti-free market because it forces people to buy auto insurance?

    Guess you missed how the CBO just ruled the austerity measures thanks to Boehner are going to cut GDP over a point for the next year...

    You're paying less in federal taxes than you did under Bush. Or did you just conveniently forget that a third of the stimulus was tax cuts?

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  5. Ah, the auto insurance canard. You dont have to drive. If you do, you put other people at risk, so you are required to prepare for that risk.

    Obamacare is completely different because it forces you to purcahse something simply because you exist. Nowhere in the Constitution does Congress have that authority. The commerce clause is being used way too liberally and the founders would be appalled.

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  6. If I get some super virus, and I dont go get it take care of, then I am putting others at risk. So the car insurance argument is somewhat valid if you are using the risk factor as your argument.

    The other point is that you flat out state that you are against any law that requires someone to purchase something. You can't have it both ways, you are either ok with the government requiring someone to purchase something, or you are not. You can't have it both ways.

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  7. Obamacare will destroy the american health care system. once again liberals seek to punish productive, responsible people so that unproductive, irresponsible people can stay that way.

    once again the liberals demand that America place its trust in the obviously failed government.

    The virus example is just plain silly. whether one has insurance or not has virtually nothing to do with the spread of a communicable disease.

    sadly the insurance arguement fails for both sides. yes a driver can do damage with an auto, but prudent people would buy uninsured motorist coverage to protect themselves

    having worked in healthcare finance for thirty years I've watched the goverment flail around and it hasn't been pretty. to give even more power to these fools is nothing short of rank stupidity. I frankly doubt that americans are all as stupid as folks like modern

    ReplyDelete
  8. Obamacare will destroy the american health care system. once again liberals seek to punish productive, responsible people so that unproductive, irresponsible people can stay that way.

    once again the liberals demand that America place its trust in the obviously failed government.

    The virus example is just plain silly. whether one has insurance or not has virtually nothing to do with the spread of a communicable disease.

    sadly the insurance arguement fails for both sides. yes a driver can do damage with an auto, but prudent people would buy uninsured motorist coverage to protect themselves

    having worked in healthcare finance for thirty years I've watched the goverment flail around and it hasn't been pretty. to give even more power to these fools is nothing short of rank stupidity. I frankly doubt that americans are all as stupid as folks like modern

    ReplyDelete
  9. Obamacare will destroy the american health care system. once again liberals seek to punish productive, responsible people so that unproductive, irresponsible people can stay that way.

    once again the liberals demand that America place its trust in the obviously failed government.

    The virus example is just plain silly. whether one has insurance or not has virtually nothing to do with the spread of a communicable disease.

    sadly the insurance arguement fails for both sides. yes a driver can do damage with an auto, but prudent people would buy uninsured motorist coverage to protect themselves

    having worked in healthcare finance for thirty years I've watched the goverment flail around and it hasn't been pretty. to give even more power to these fools is nothing short of rank stupidity. I frankly doubt that americans are all as stupid as folks like modern

    ReplyDelete
  10. If I get some super virus, and I dont go get it take care of, then I am putting others at risk.

    Ridiculous. For one things, we're talking states versus the federal government.

    Having a drivers license is not a right. Its a privelege. States have legal authority to require that you cover your risk to others, as a condition of being granted that privelege.

    The Obamacare mandate is wrong on more than one level. First, the federal government's power is supposed to be limited to the powers expressly granted to it by the Constituion. Congress is not given such power to require that you purchase a product.

    Second, the mandate applies to you simply because you exist. There's no alternative, and you certainly do not pose a risk to others simply by existing.

    Ohioans will reject the mandate and send a strong message to Congress.

    ReplyDelete

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