Friday, May 7, 2010

Everyone is tied?

Kasich is up by 1 and Portman is down by one in the latest Rasmussen Poll.

But after looking closer at the data, I'm a little curious about the Party ID breakdown.

Let's look at the results.
  • Lee Fisher is up by 1 overall.
  • Fisher wins Democrats 81-6.
  • Portman wins Republicans 86-5.
  • Portman wins "others", or Indepedents, 44-34.
  • Kasich is up by 1 overall.
  • Kasich wins Republicans 90-6
  • Strickland wins Democrats 79-14.
  • Kasich wins "others", or Independents, 45-41.
Needless to say, Democrats had to enjoy a very highly weighted sample in order to provide the end result of the poll.

Remember the exit poll for the 2008 results?

Obama won Democrats 89-10.
McCain won Republicans 92-8.
Obama won Independents 52-44.

Seems a little comparable to the Portman numbers, eh?

And yet, Obama won Ohio by 5.

Does anyone honestly believe Ohio is the outlier of the entire election environment right now? Because that's the only way these Rasmussen numbers add up.

I know what you're thinking. It's Rasmussen. They are pro-GOP.

Clearly, that's not the case this time.

This poll once again proves that ultimately the best gauge way to gauge a race is to look at an amalgamation of all polls. Here are the Gov and Senate races per

Yes, we're down. But all well within the margin of error. We have the environment and voter enthusiasm on our side......and the natives aren't happy with their chief.

There's a big difference between picking up a phone and answering a few questions and actually going to the voting booth. And that's where we'll win in 2010.

Keep up the fight everyone. Good work!

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