Well, it's the end of 2010.
And it's been one hell of a ride.
This is the 1,361st post on 3BP this year. For the mathematically challenged, that's nearly four posts a day, every day. Considering how rarely I posted on weekends, that's pretty ridiculous.
Here are a few of my favorites, with a little commentary to go with them...
January
The State of the State is...
A hysterical list of guesses from several 3BP fans on twitter on how Strickland would describe the State of the State.
Day 1 Fail.
A breakdown of Strickland's awful rollout.
More Buzz about the White House worrying about Ohio...
One of my favorite pictures of the 2010 campaign: The Organizing for America grassroots powerhouse.
Kasich's LG - Who will it be?
3BP nails Kasich's pick.
February
Breaking it Down - The 2/23 Quinnipiac Ohio Gubernatorial Poll
A poll showing Strickland in the lead also showed some of the first indications of a Kasich victory.
Where in Ohio is Yvette McGee Brown? - THE MUSIC VIDEO!!!
The funniest in the "Where is Yvette" series.
Ganley's Big Move - What it means in Ohio & the Nation
Tom Ganley may have lost, but his challenge to Sutton helped the dominos drop across Ohio.
Ted Strickland and Chris Redfern keep finding ways to lose.
The first hint that Cuyahoga County was going to cause major problems for Team Strickland.
"Green" Jobs in Ohio - The big joke.
A breakdown of the Strickland green job fallacy.
March
An Interview with Rick May: On the Front Lines of the Balanced Budget Battle
A 3BP exclusive interview with Kasich's Budget Committee Staff Director from his days in Congress.
Ted Strickland: Mission Accomplished!
Some of my absolutely favorite photoshops mocking Strickland's ALL IS WELL moment.
Strickland wins Governor's Cup! Ohio Saved!
"Say JELLO to prosperity!"
April
Democrats blew it with Lee.
I finally get to speak my mind about why the ODP was so incredibly stupid in backing Lee Fisher over Jennifer Brunner.
Lis Smith thinks Ted Strickland has a "glass jaw".
The Lis Smith screw-up that finally got me unblocked from Ted Strickland's twitter feed.
BREAKING: YVETTE FOUND!
After a few months of searching, Strickland's LG candidate was found...and the results were hysterical.
Lee Fisher is a hypocrite.
Video showing just how big a schmuck Lee Fisher really was for the Dems.
The best of "Ohio Democratic Party Books"...
Easily in my top three favorite posts of the year.
May
The stimulus is not working. Unless you're in the 43215 zip code.
Convenient.
Hallett is wrong: Ted Strickland is responsible for job loss.
Whether he likes it or not.
It's the jobs, stupid.
A headline from the Cincy Enquirer that defined the campaign.
You want to talk voter enthusiasm?
The primary vote tallies really did indicate bad news for Dems.
Ted TV
Strickland showed his hand early. And we laughed.
June
If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, then it's probably....
The OSFC scandal may have defined Strickland best.
Fisher campaign in total and complete disarray
We start wondering less about whether Fisher can win, and more about how badly he will effect down ticket races. Which is exactly what happened.
BREAKING: Kilroy staff kicks public out of official congressional event
Classy move, Mary Jo.
The Domino's Theory
Another in my top three favorite posts of the year. This theory turned out more accurate than I ever expected.
July
Kasich is winning the New Media war
Winning the war online, and why it's so important.
Kasich supporters should welcome President Obama with open arms
An early analysis of why Obama's appearance would only help Kasich
Guess which Chairman is the grown-up.
The ODP should consider taking Chris Redfern's twitter privileges away.
Lee Fisher can't even be honest about Independence Day parades.
This is just sad.
August
Worst Campaign Literature of the year?
Hysterical.
[EXCLUSIVE!!!] OMGZ!!11!!!! SNEAKZ PREVIEWZ OF NEW STRICKKKKKLAND COMMURCIAL!!!!
And you saw it here first.
Enthusiasm!
This was just embarrassing.
September
Oh no. Not another one.
Trying to list all of Strickland's scandals is exhausting work.
Ohio Dems: Feel the Enthusiasm!!! - Part 396
The first official sign that things were going to go badly for Dems in November.
Is Strickland closing the gap on Independents?
Dems said yes. I said no. And the exit polls proved me right.
"How to Alienate People and Stoke Class Warfare" by Lis Smith
One of the many times Strickland asked for an endorsement, got denied, then said they didn't want it anyway.
October
Team Strickland overly optimistic in Cleveland [UPDATE: Really funny pic added]
The picture that defined the end of Strickland's campaign.
What I did on my Saturday afternoon.
I get stalked at a Strickland rally. Hilarity ensues.
I believe.
Ted failed.
Absentees show the enthusiasm gap is for real in Ohio
More previews of the bad news to come for Ohio Dems.
Has Strickland given up on winning over Independents?
Yes, he did.
How bad has it gotten for Ohio House Democrats?
They were paying to promote Libertarian candidates. Ouch.
November
Getting real on Ohio's jobs crisis
WCMH in Columbus steps up and teaches us a thing or two about unemployment numbers.
Is Strickland's shadow government already in place?
Ted Strickland isn't taking losing too well.
A final look at the Ohio Gubernatorial 2010 Exit Poll
What worked. What didn't. What mattered.
That'll show ya.
I tried to teach my readers a few things about reading polls these past few months. The results proved me right.
Congratulations Governor-Elect Kasich!
My favorite post of the year. 3BP is the first to call it!
December
Kasich gets it.
Unlike Strickland, Kasich understands he's there to do a job first, and not worry about re-election.
Strickland hates Cleveland. Cleveland responds, "who?"
LOL!
In defeat, Strickland shows the NRA his true colors
Ted proves he was no friend to supporters of the 2nd Amendment.
Historic.
Kasich's win was more impressive than you knew.
Victory!
The 3-C is no more.
That's it.
Here's to a happy new year.
A New Day. And a New Way.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
'Tis the season!
As we all get ready to head to our respective homes for the holiday, here is a pretty damn cool video to get you in the Christmas spirit.
Enjoy!
Enjoy!
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Steve Driehaus: Sore Loser
Guest posted by Bytor
Emphasis on "Loser"
Poor Steve. He's not taking his defeat very well. Let's go back in time for some background on this story.
In October, the Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life PAC, announced plans to erect billboards in Driehaus's district, criticizing him for flip-flopping on Obamacare, and voting for the bill, even though it would allow federally funded abortions. Driehaus, who is supposedly pro-life, filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission, accusing SBA List of falsely claiming that he supports such abortion funding.
Meanwhile, the Ohio law used to file the complaint is being reconsidered as to whether it violates the First Amendment. Driehaus's attorney threatened the billboard company, Lamar Companies, and the billboards were never erected. After he loses the election, Driehaus effectively dropped the complaint with the OEC.
Fast forward to December. Driehaus is now suing SBA List for defamation and "loss of livelihood". Give. Me. A. Break.
Driehaus is wrong in so many ways here.
1. Regarding Obamacare, SBA List is right. Several other pro-life groups agree that the health care bill will allow for taxpayer funding of abortions, including the National Right to Life Committee, Ohio Right to Life, and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
2. This is a clear violation of free speech. If we cannot criticize our government officials, we might as well pack it up and move to Cuba. Driehaus wants to be the only one allowed to describe his vote to you, while punishing any others who offer a different version. Even the ACLU weighed in on this, and defended SBA List.
3. SBA List did not deprive you of your livelihood. The voters did.
4. Rep. Driehaus, if you describe your job in Congress as your "livelihood", then you absolutely needed to be kicked out of Congress. The people of your district did not elect you to give you a livelihood. They did so because they thought you would represent them.
Congressman, you called yourself pro-life, and then you betrayed the unborn and the voters of the 1st district. Take your loss like a man. You cast the votes that led to your defeat. And you paid the price.
Good riddance.
Emphasis on "Loser"
Poor Steve. He's not taking his defeat very well. Let's go back in time for some background on this story.
In October, the Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life PAC, announced plans to erect billboards in Driehaus's district, criticizing him for flip-flopping on Obamacare, and voting for the bill, even though it would allow federally funded abortions. Driehaus, who is supposedly pro-life, filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission, accusing SBA List of falsely claiming that he supports such abortion funding.
Meanwhile, the Ohio law used to file the complaint is being reconsidered as to whether it violates the First Amendment. Driehaus's attorney threatened the billboard company, Lamar Companies, and the billboards were never erected. After he loses the election, Driehaus effectively dropped the complaint with the OEC.
Fast forward to December. Driehaus is now suing SBA List for defamation and "loss of livelihood". Give. Me. A. Break.
Driehaus is wrong in so many ways here.
1. Regarding Obamacare, SBA List is right. Several other pro-life groups agree that the health care bill will allow for taxpayer funding of abortions, including the National Right to Life Committee, Ohio Right to Life, and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
2. This is a clear violation of free speech. If we cannot criticize our government officials, we might as well pack it up and move to Cuba. Driehaus wants to be the only one allowed to describe his vote to you, while punishing any others who offer a different version. Even the ACLU weighed in on this, and defended SBA List.
“The people have an absolute right to criticize their public officials, the government should not be the arbiter of true or false speech and, in any event, the best answer for bad speech is more speech,” the ACLU Ohio’s amicus brief noted.
3. SBA List did not deprive you of your livelihood. The voters did.
4. Rep. Driehaus, if you describe your job in Congress as your "livelihood", then you absolutely needed to be kicked out of Congress. The people of your district did not elect you to give you a livelihood. They did so because they thought you would represent them.
Congressman, you called yourself pro-life, and then you betrayed the unborn and the voters of the 1st district. Take your loss like a man. You cast the votes that led to your defeat. And you paid the price.
Good riddance.
Kasich gets it.
I absolutely love this quote from John Kasich's recent appearance on Fox to discuss budget issues.
Awesome.
Now, I know what our friends on the left would say in response.
"Strickland balanced the budget." ...by using billions in one-time federal funding and raising taxes.
"Strickland cut taxes." Actually, only once did Strickland get in the way of the tax cuts that were passed and signed by a previous Administration.
"Strickland made Ohio business friendly." LOLOLOLOL!
The fact is, John Kasich stands in direct contrast from Governor Strickland.
A New Day can't get here soon enough.
"I got elected to be a servant. I did not get elected to get re-elected. I told everyone what I was going to do. I'm going to balance the budget. I'm going to reduce taxes. And I'm going to make Ohio business friendly and competitive with states around the country. Period. Exclamation point."
Awesome.
Now, I know what our friends on the left would say in response.
"Strickland balanced the budget." ...by using billions in one-time federal funding and raising taxes.
"Strickland cut taxes." Actually, only once did Strickland get in the way of the tax cuts that were passed and signed by a previous Administration.
"Strickland made Ohio business friendly." LOLOLOLOL!
The fact is, John Kasich stands in direct contrast from Governor Strickland.
- He's not going to use a federal bailout to kick the can down the road.
- Despite the massive hole left him by Strickland, he's not going to break on the principles of the NTU No New Taxes pledge he signed during the campaign.
- He won't embrace the status quo.
...voters here were also put off by Strickland's failure to anticipate the recession and begin retooling state spending in the way that Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson did before the deluge hit. Had he taken similar steps, Strickland might not have to be so worried about what Gov.-elect John Kasich will do to escape the fiscal crater he inherits. Some real salesmanship might also have built public support for the 3C rail project that Kasich has killed and Strickland now mourns.Ka-blammo.
What do every one of these failures have in common? Timid leadership. That's what drove Strickland out of office. Maybe some day, he'll look in a mirror and understand.
A New Day can't get here soon enough.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Strickland hates Cleveland. Cleveland responds, "who?"
If Strickland ever considers a rematch with Kasich in 2014, this article in today's Cleveland Plain Dealer won't help.
Strickland says he wants to stay relevant in Ohio politics. Apparently to him, the best way to do that is give his political base the middle finger on the front page of the Plain Dealer.
If you'll recall, the lack of Democratic turnout in Cuyahoga County was a major factor in how the race turned out. So, to be fair, Strickland should be bummed about his lack of support up there.
But he has no one to blame but himself.
I take you back to an article in the Plain Dealer back in February...
Well, I hate to say I told ya so, Governor. But I did.
3BP in February...
Strickland says he wants to stay relevant in Ohio politics. Apparently to him, the best way to do that is give his political base the middle finger on the front page of the Plain Dealer.
If you'll recall, the lack of Democratic turnout in Cuyahoga County was a major factor in how the race turned out. So, to be fair, Strickland should be bummed about his lack of support up there.
But he has no one to blame but himself.
I take you back to an article in the Plain Dealer back in February...
Nationally known Democratic strategist Jerry Austin of Cleveland said this ticket will prove what elected officials in Northeast Ohio had suspected all along from the Strickland administration.Strickland ignored Cuyahoga for four years. Then all of a sudden he's up in arms when they didn't turn out to vote for him.
"Politicians up here have expressed frustration about the lack of attention from this administration for a while," Austin said. "And now you turn around and there is no one on the ballot from Cuyahoga County. Well, now people think there is absolutely a disregard for Northeast Ohio going on."
Well, I hate to say I told ya so, Governor. But I did.
3BP in February...
The vitally important Democratic political activists of Northeast Ohio are clearly unhappy with the Ohio Democratic Party and their slate of statewide candidates.Oops.
This kind of frustration, if it can't be turned around quick, will make it extremely difficult for Ted Strickland & Co. to get out the vote in the all-important Democratic bastion of Northeast Ohio.
And it could cost them dearly.
Two down.
It's official. Per the U.S. Census, Ohio will lose two congressional seats.
Not only does that mean less clout in Congress, but also fewer electoral votes and lesser importance in the Presidential race.
Unfortunately for Ohio, people don't just vote in November. They also use their feet.
The state of the state can be just as well defined by whom it elects as by who stays and who leaves. If people like living here, they stay. If they don't, they leave. It sounds so simple, but it's very important.
People may move for weather, but Ohio's weather hasn't changed much since its founding in 1803, and yet it's over the past couple decades we've lost population to other states. That means other factors are coming into play.
Ohio isn't attractive anymore. We need to change the way we do business.
Ohio needs a reboot.
As for redistricting itself, we all know it's up to the Republicans in Ohio who will lose those seats.
Will it be two Democrats? Will they split it?
Who goes?
All kinds of theories are out there right now.
Nate Silver at the New York Times has some ideas...
Not only does that mean less clout in Congress, but also fewer electoral votes and lesser importance in the Presidential race.
Unfortunately for Ohio, people don't just vote in November. They also use their feet.
The state of the state can be just as well defined by whom it elects as by who stays and who leaves. If people like living here, they stay. If they don't, they leave. It sounds so simple, but it's very important.
People may move for weather, but Ohio's weather hasn't changed much since its founding in 1803, and yet it's over the past couple decades we've lost population to other states. That means other factors are coming into play.
Ohio isn't attractive anymore. We need to change the way we do business.
Ohio needs a reboot.
As for redistricting itself, we all know it's up to the Republicans in Ohio who will lose those seats.
Will it be two Democrats? Will they split it?
Who goes?
All kinds of theories are out there right now.
Nate Silver at the New York Times has some ideas...
Quite a few Ohio districts have lost population outright since 2000. The one that has lost the most is 11th district, which covers most of Cleveland, but it is so blue that a core of Democratic voters will remain to ensure Marcia Fudge’s re-election to Congress. Dennis Kucinich’s neighboring 10th district, however, has also lost ground, and he could be vulnerable. Some of Ohio’s Republican-leaning and swing areas, like the Appalachian 6th district that Republicans took over in November, have lost population as well. But the Republicans in control of the redistricting process will do their best to see that the two seats the state loses both come from the Democratic column.So what do you think? Who goes? Who stays?
This is how you want to go out? Really?
"He brought jobs to Ohio."None of those will be Ted Strickland's legacy in Ohio.
"He made the tough decisions to solve Ohio's budget crisis."
"He gave us the 3-C passenger rail project."
So, with nothing else to hang his hat on, this seems to be how Strickland wants to go out...
A whiny, grumpy, old, do-nothing.
The article goes on to quote the Governor...
The Democratic governor also said he is concerned that Kasich's "bombastic rhetoric" could presage an irresponsible approach to governing with the state facing a projected $8 billion budget shortfall.Anyone else see the irony of an outgoing Governor complaining about "bombastic rhetoric" in an article where he spends the entire time throwing bombs at the incoming Governor?
"I would have less concern if I felt like there was any compassion coming from Mr. Kasich when he talks about what he's going to do," Strickland said. "I don't hear it; I don't sense it; I don't feel it. And that troubles me."
Did Taft do this to Strickland?
Did Celeste give this kind of treatment to Voinovich?
Is this classless and surprisingly childish rhetoric really how Ted Strickland wants to be remembered?
Considering the historic nature of Kasich's victory, I can understand being upset about losing. These kind of wins just don't happen in Ohio.
But ladies and gentlemen, things get even more weird.
Strickland also invoked what he called his "black helicopter theory," a popular reference to conspiracy theories such as the military using black helicopters for clandestine purposes.Uhhhhh....
In the governor's theory, Kasich and legislative Republicans want to weaken public-employee unions by blaming their pay and benefits for the state's economic woes. The real culprits for the worst recession since the Great Depression, Strickland said, are international forces and failure of the federal government to police greed on Wall Street.
Black helicopters?
Really? That's what you're talking about in your big exit interview with the state media?
To their credit, this was the Kasich team's response...
Kasich's office declined to respond to the governor's comments.Their restraint is admirable.
Ted Strickland should have wished Kasich well, offered to help however he can, and move on.
That's the dignified thing to do as an outgoing Governor.
But considering how he ran the state into the ground, I can't say I'm all that surprised at how this interview of his turned out.
Goodbye, Governor.
Monday, December 20, 2010
"The Day of Reckoning"
Last night 60 Minutes hit hard on a big problem facing states across the nation - the impending fiscal crisis.
States have been kicking the can down the road for years and now it's up to us to clean up the mess.
Watch...
States have been kicking the can down the road for years and now it's up to us to clean up the mess.
Watch...
In defeat, Strickland shows the NRA his true colors
This fall, to the frustration of many conservatives, Ted Strickland won the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and Buckeye Firearms Association.
According to the NRA, Strickland earned an A+ for being "a legislator with not only an excellent voting record on all critical NRA issues, but who has also made a vigorous effort to promote and defend the Second Amendment."
Well, it seems his bitter loss this past November has helped show Ted Strickland's true colors.
Twice the Governor had an opportunity to put forth a "vigorous effort to promote and defend the second amendment". Twice he failed.
First came the opportunity presented to Strickland from State Representative Danny Bubp:
While the Governor announced he would sign the bill, he never utilized the bully pulpit to call for his fellow Democrat to allow the bill to go to the floor for a vote. It was so simple. If Strickland had publicly lobbied the Speaker, the pressure would have been too great and Budish would have needed to relent. Alas, he didn't, and Budish never reconvened the House, leaving the bill to die. Is that a "vigorous effort"?
But it's Strickland's appointment to the Ohio Supreme Court that was a full-on moon to the NRA and Buckeye Firearms Association.
In mid-December, Ted Strickland appointed his running mate, Yvette McGee Brown, to the highest court in Ohio.
Yvette McGee Brown received an F from the NRA.
What do F's mean? "True enemy of gun owners' rights. A consistent anti-gun candidate who always opposes gun owners' rights and/or actively leads anti-gun legislative efforts, or sponsors anti-gun legislation."
And this is the person Ted Strickland deems most qualified to interpret and rule on Ohio's gun laws.
When he appointed her, the Governor said Brown would be "a wise and compassionate voice for the most vulnerable."
With all due respect, that's ri-damn-diculous.
The job description of a Supreme Court Justice has nothing to do with working to represent one constituency over another. Instead it requires interpreting the law equally and fairly, no matter who it affects.
So is this appointment Strickland's way of putting forth a "vigorous effort to promote and defend the second amendment"?
Absolutely not.
In fact, it's just the opposite. His rationale for appointing her speaks directly to her politics and perspective - not her ability to do her job properly. Well, Governor, her politics and perspective earned her an F from the NRA and you deemed her fit to have a seat on the Supreme Court.
Ted Strickland is not the champion of 2nd amendment activists that they thought he was. And now that he's leaving office, he's shown his true colors.
According to the NRA, Strickland earned an A+ for being "a legislator with not only an excellent voting record on all critical NRA issues, but who has also made a vigorous effort to promote and defend the Second Amendment."
Well, it seems his bitter loss this past November has helped show Ted Strickland's true colors.
Twice the Governor had an opportunity to put forth a "vigorous effort to promote and defend the second amendment". Twice he failed.
First came the opportunity presented to Strickland from State Representative Danny Bubp:
Rep. Danny Bubp says he has collected the 50 signatures needed to force a House floor vote on a controversial bill that would allow Ohio permit holders to carry concealed handguns into bars and other places that serve alcohol.This is a bill that would have passed the House and been sent to the Governor for signature, if just given the opportunity by Speaker Budish.
The West Union Republican, is utilizing a rare discharge petition to force a pair of bills out of a House committee and into the full House, circumventing Speaker Armond Budish's control of the matter. Both bills have already passed the Senate.
While the Governor announced he would sign the bill, he never utilized the bully pulpit to call for his fellow Democrat to allow the bill to go to the floor for a vote. It was so simple. If Strickland had publicly lobbied the Speaker, the pressure would have been too great and Budish would have needed to relent. Alas, he didn't, and Budish never reconvened the House, leaving the bill to die. Is that a "vigorous effort"?
But it's Strickland's appointment to the Ohio Supreme Court that was a full-on moon to the NRA and Buckeye Firearms Association.
In mid-December, Ted Strickland appointed his running mate, Yvette McGee Brown, to the highest court in Ohio.
Yvette McGee Brown received an F from the NRA.
What do F's mean? "True enemy of gun owners' rights. A consistent anti-gun candidate who always opposes gun owners' rights and/or actively leads anti-gun legislative efforts, or sponsors anti-gun legislation."
And this is the person Ted Strickland deems most qualified to interpret and rule on Ohio's gun laws.
When he appointed her, the Governor said Brown would be "a wise and compassionate voice for the most vulnerable."
With all due respect, that's ri-damn-diculous.
The job description of a Supreme Court Justice has nothing to do with working to represent one constituency over another. Instead it requires interpreting the law equally and fairly, no matter who it affects.
So is this appointment Strickland's way of putting forth a "vigorous effort to promote and defend the second amendment"?
Absolutely not.
In fact, it's just the opposite. His rationale for appointing her speaks directly to her politics and perspective - not her ability to do her job properly. Well, Governor, her politics and perspective earned her an F from the NRA and you deemed her fit to have a seat on the Supreme Court.
Ted Strickland is not the champion of 2nd amendment activists that they thought he was. And now that he's leaving office, he's shown his true colors.
Friday, December 17, 2010
The poll numbers keep pouring in....
Yet more polling has come out from PPP. This time was a straight up question of "400 usual Ohio Republican primary voters" and asking where they stand on the Senate and Presidential primaries.
Not surprisingly, the most well known Republicans do the best in each.
Here are the Senate numbers...
Only thing that really stood out to me is how Jim Jordan is only 1% behind Husted and 3% ahead of Taylor.
Pretty impressive for an unannounced candidate who doesn't represent a major metropolitan area.
In fact, it was reported on twitter yesterday that Jordan is leaning strongly against running for Senate in '12.
That's a smart move. It tampers down expectations and encourages the focus to stay on Sherrod Brown. Ultimately, this will be a referendum election, and the longer the electorate focuses on the incumbent when things are bad, the better for the challenger.
The number that will surprise a few conservative activists? Among conservatives, DeWine leads with 26% of the vote. Blackwell is closest with 20%.
Here are the Presidential numbers...
Once again, the most well known candidates lead. Not surprising this far out.
Finally, there were also new numbers that came out on approval/favorability of Strickland, Kasich and Portman.
Ted Strickland is still in the dumps, coming in at 39/44 overall and 38/42 among Independents. But for the first time, Kasich is also underwater at 36/40 overall, and is even among Independents at 34/34. Now, to be fair, this poll was taken of registered voters rather than likely voters. As we've learned, that means it's a little less friendly to Republicans. That said, Rob Portman is still enjoying positive numbers, coming in at 35/26 overall and 36/21 among Indies. Of course, it's a lot easier to keep a positive image when you're able to quietly head into the Senate.
Ultimately, all these poll numbers don't mean much right now. And news organizations would be far better served if they ceased polling primary and general matchups altogether. After all, the only numbers that matter now are of incumbents up in '12. They are the ones known to the general public and they are the ones upon whom there will be a referendum.
And it can't get here soon enough.
Not surprisingly, the most well known Republicans do the best in each.
Here are the Senate numbers...
Only thing that really stood out to me is how Jim Jordan is only 1% behind Husted and 3% ahead of Taylor.
Pretty impressive for an unannounced candidate who doesn't represent a major metropolitan area.
In fact, it was reported on twitter yesterday that Jordan is leaning strongly against running for Senate in '12.
That's a smart move. It tampers down expectations and encourages the focus to stay on Sherrod Brown. Ultimately, this will be a referendum election, and the longer the electorate focuses on the incumbent when things are bad, the better for the challenger.
The number that will surprise a few conservative activists? Among conservatives, DeWine leads with 26% of the vote. Blackwell is closest with 20%.
Here are the Presidential numbers...
Once again, the most well known candidates lead. Not surprising this far out.
Finally, there were also new numbers that came out on approval/favorability of Strickland, Kasich and Portman.
Ted Strickland is still in the dumps, coming in at 39/44 overall and 38/42 among Independents. But for the first time, Kasich is also underwater at 36/40 overall, and is even among Independents at 34/34. Now, to be fair, this poll was taken of registered voters rather than likely voters. As we've learned, that means it's a little less friendly to Republicans. That said, Rob Portman is still enjoying positive numbers, coming in at 35/26 overall and 36/21 among Indies. Of course, it's a lot easier to keep a positive image when you're able to quietly head into the Senate.
Ultimately, all these poll numbers don't mean much right now. And news organizations would be far better served if they ceased polling primary and general matchups altogether. After all, the only numbers that matter now are of incumbents up in '12. They are the ones known to the general public and they are the ones upon whom there will be a referendum.
And it can't get here soon enough.
Once again, unemployment numbers are worse than they appear...
While it's good, but useless PR for Strickland, Ohio's unemployment rate shrank 0.1% to 9.8%.
Unfortunately, the reasons why aren't exactly good.
In fact, the number of employed Ohioans shrank by nearly 8,000 and the labor force decreased by 2,000.
In other words, a big reason why the unemployment rate is shrinking is because there are less Ohioans in the workforce or looking for work.
In the past year, the labor force has decreased by 5,000. That means the total number dropping out this past month was 40% of Ohio's total for the past year. That's not a good way to go out.
Last month I wrote a post explaining why the labor force numbers are such a vitally important indicator of the state's well-being.
Check it out here.
Unfortunately, the reasons why aren't exactly good.
In fact, the number of employed Ohioans shrank by nearly 8,000 and the labor force decreased by 2,000.
In other words, a big reason why the unemployment rate is shrinking is because there are less Ohioans in the workforce or looking for work.
In the past year, the labor force has decreased by 5,000. That means the total number dropping out this past month was 40% of Ohio's total for the past year. That's not a good way to go out.
Last month I wrote a post explaining why the labor force numbers are such a vitally important indicator of the state's well-being.
Check it out here.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Confirmed: Sherrod is in trouble, and where the GOP Senate field stands in '12
Disclaimer: Just as our post a couple days ago on other poll numbers, the same goes here. The 2012 election is a long ways away. A lot can and will change. But every campaign needs a starting point, and that's what these analyses are meant to help frame.
======
A couple weeks ago 3BP discussed some very troubling numbers for Sherrod Brown that hadn't really been discussed in the press. They indicated the Senator may be very vulnerable to a Republican challenger in 2012.
Well, brand spankin' new numbers from PPP confirm that theory.
While Brown currently maintains a lead over most of his likely opponents, the level of support is nowhere near the level it needs to be for him to stand a chance in 22+ months.
Currently, Brown leads Lt. Gov-elect Mary Taylor 40-38, SoS-elect Jon Husted 43-38, Rep. Jim Jordan 43-35, and ties Atty. Gen-elect Mike DeWine at 43.
In other words, after four years of service in the Senate, Sherrod Brown is averaging just 42.3% support against both known political veterans and relative newcomers.
By comparison, after three years as Governor and at this time last year, Ted Strickland was earning an average of 48.7% support across the three major polls taken over December and January. We all know how that turned out.
With more years of service to his state than Strickland and with seemingly less responsibility for its economic problems, you'd expect Brown to have better numbers. He doesn't.
Additionally, Brown's approval sits at just 40% and is at -20 among Independent voters.
Even worse news? The PPP poll sampled registered voters, not likely voters. As we all know, registered voter samples tend to skew further left than likely voter models.
Of the challengers, Mike DeWine is by far the most well known with only 73% having an opinion of him. Husted comes in with 38%, Jordan with 27%, and Taylor with a surprisingly low 35%.
The strangest number that came out of this poll? Despite DeWine coming in with -13 favorability, he still ties Brown. A rare feat.
Since 3 of the 4 GOP candidates are so unknown, it's hard to gauge who would have a solid head start if all four jump in. PPP did poll favorability by ideology, so we can determine who has the best ratings among conservatives (i.e., those most likely to vote in a primary). Thanks to their erratic name ID numbers, I've divided their favorable number by their unfavorable. In other words, if someone is 20% favorable to 10% unfavorable, their number would be 2. This gives us a constant data point that helps us see where a candidate stands among those that know them. The higher constant, the better the candidate does among conservatives that know them.
Dewine is at 46-30, or 1.53.
Husted is at 29-13, or 2.23.
Jordan is at 16-10, or 1.6.
Taylor is at 27-12, or 2.25.
So, among conservatives that know each candidate, Husted and Taylor perform the best.
Yep, it's a stretch, but it's all we've got for now.
Of course, this doesn't consider the massive gorilla in the room - Jim Jordan's $846,501 already stowed away and available for spending on the primary. In a primary where 3 of the 4 potential candidates clearly have a long way to go to build up their name ID, money matters. And Jordan has a lot of it. The other three will have to start at zero.
But ultimately, and as PPP mentions in their summary, the major player in determining whether Brown gets re-elected is how Obama does in Ohio. If he does well, that helps Brown. If he doesn't, it hurts Brown. Pretty simple and pretty obvious.
That said, neither candidate is currently in a good position, and that means Ohio's Senate seat is up for grabs.
Despite Jordan's low name ID, his cash advantage has to make him the favorite. His conservative credentials are impeccable so it's hard to see where he could run into any trouble from a messaging standpoint.
Obviously, there are an enormous number of variables yet to be determined, but we have to start somewhere.
Considering Brown's extreme liberal voting record in the Senate and his poor poll numbers after serving for four years, it's hard to see how Brown won't be a top target in '12.
======
A couple weeks ago 3BP discussed some very troubling numbers for Sherrod Brown that hadn't really been discussed in the press. They indicated the Senator may be very vulnerable to a Republican challenger in 2012.
Well, brand spankin' new numbers from PPP confirm that theory.
While Brown currently maintains a lead over most of his likely opponents, the level of support is nowhere near the level it needs to be for him to stand a chance in 22+ months.
Currently, Brown leads Lt. Gov-elect Mary Taylor 40-38, SoS-elect Jon Husted 43-38, Rep. Jim Jordan 43-35, and ties Atty. Gen-elect Mike DeWine at 43.
In other words, after four years of service in the Senate, Sherrod Brown is averaging just 42.3% support against both known political veterans and relative newcomers.
By comparison, after three years as Governor and at this time last year, Ted Strickland was earning an average of 48.7% support across the three major polls taken over December and January. We all know how that turned out.
With more years of service to his state than Strickland and with seemingly less responsibility for its economic problems, you'd expect Brown to have better numbers. He doesn't.
Additionally, Brown's approval sits at just 40% and is at -20 among Independent voters.
Even worse news? The PPP poll sampled registered voters, not likely voters. As we all know, registered voter samples tend to skew further left than likely voter models.
Of the challengers, Mike DeWine is by far the most well known with only 73% having an opinion of him. Husted comes in with 38%, Jordan with 27%, and Taylor with a surprisingly low 35%.
The strangest number that came out of this poll? Despite DeWine coming in with -13 favorability, he still ties Brown. A rare feat.
Since 3 of the 4 GOP candidates are so unknown, it's hard to gauge who would have a solid head start if all four jump in. PPP did poll favorability by ideology, so we can determine who has the best ratings among conservatives (i.e., those most likely to vote in a primary). Thanks to their erratic name ID numbers, I've divided their favorable number by their unfavorable. In other words, if someone is 20% favorable to 10% unfavorable, their number would be 2. This gives us a constant data point that helps us see where a candidate stands among those that know them. The higher constant, the better the candidate does among conservatives that know them.
Dewine is at 46-30, or 1.53.
Husted is at 29-13, or 2.23.
Jordan is at 16-10, or 1.6.
Taylor is at 27-12, or 2.25.
So, among conservatives that know each candidate, Husted and Taylor perform the best.
Yep, it's a stretch, but it's all we've got for now.
Of course, this doesn't consider the massive gorilla in the room - Jim Jordan's $846,501 already stowed away and available for spending on the primary. In a primary where 3 of the 4 potential candidates clearly have a long way to go to build up their name ID, money matters. And Jordan has a lot of it. The other three will have to start at zero.
But ultimately, and as PPP mentions in their summary, the major player in determining whether Brown gets re-elected is how Obama does in Ohio. If he does well, that helps Brown. If he doesn't, it hurts Brown. Pretty simple and pretty obvious.
That said, neither candidate is currently in a good position, and that means Ohio's Senate seat is up for grabs.
Despite Jordan's low name ID, his cash advantage has to make him the favorite. His conservative credentials are impeccable so it's hard to see where he could run into any trouble from a messaging standpoint.
Obviously, there are an enormous number of variables yet to be determined, but we have to start somewhere.
Considering Brown's extreme liberal voting record in the Senate and his poor poll numbers after serving for four years, it's hard to see how Brown won't be a top target in '12.
You know you're in trouble when...
Yesterday in a meeting with 20 CEOs, the President said the following...
Such a notion should never be anywhere close to reality among America's private sector.
But the President himself has taken things so far that he feels it necessary to make such reassurances.
This is where we are, America.
"I want to dispel any notion we want to inhibit your success."Wow. Just the fact that our President feels it necessary to say such a thing to our nation's job creators is a scary thought.
Such a notion should never be anywhere close to reality among America's private sector.
But the President himself has taken things so far that he feels it necessary to make such reassurances.
This is where we are, America.
1,420 days from the election, Cordray announces candidacy for Governor
Yesterday, Attorney General Richard Cordray announced his future plans serving as an Obama presidential appointee for a consumer protection panel in Washington, DC.
But most interestingly, he made no qualms about announcing his intentions in four years.
But I guess we shouldn't be surprised that the perennial candidate has announced his intentions 1,420 days from his next election.
Now don't get me wrong, Cordray has the potential to be a very formidable candidate. But his record as candidate isn't anything that should have anyone at the Ohio Democratic Party jumping for joy.
While Cordray has twice won statewide office, both times were in the middle of an intensely challenging environment for Ohio Republicans. Rather than winning each race, he was in the right place at the right time.
Ultimately, do Ohioans reward perennial candidates with a record of losing? Ask Lee Fisher.
But most interestingly, he made no qualms about announcing his intentions in four years.
“You do a lot of soul searching after you lose, but I do expect to be running for office in the next cycle,” he said.If anyone tells you that office is anything less than Governor, they're only fooling themselves.
But I guess we shouldn't be surprised that the perennial candidate has announced his intentions 1,420 days from his next election.
- He served just one term as a State Representative in '91 before letting his ambition get a hold of him and try for Congress. He lost.
- He ran for Ohio Attorney General in 1998. He lost.
- In 2000 he ran for the U.S. Senate. He lost. (well, technically he couldn't even win the nomination)
- In 2002 he finally won an election in his race for Franklin County Treasurer.
- He made it to the big leagues in 2006 when he joined seemingly every Ohio Democrat in winning their respective race. This time it was for Ohio Treasurer.
- And, of course, as soon as an opening for another job opened up, he ran for Attorney General in the wake of Marc Dann's resignation.
- Then he lost his bid for re-election.
Now don't get me wrong, Cordray has the potential to be a very formidable candidate. But his record as candidate isn't anything that should have anyone at the Ohio Democratic Party jumping for joy.
While Cordray has twice won statewide office, both times were in the middle of an intensely challenging environment for Ohio Republicans. Rather than winning each race, he was in the right place at the right time.
Ultimately, do Ohioans reward perennial candidates with a record of losing? Ask Lee Fisher.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Really, Governor?
Ted Strickland gave his final speech today at the Columbus Metropolitan Club.
Reportedly, he stated...
Well here are some other numbers that have changed from when you first took office.
There are 337,371 fewer people with jobs.
There are 267,300 more unemployed Ohioans.
The workforce has shrunk by over 70,000 people.
The unemployment rate has increased by 83%.
Oh, and you left Ohio with the biggest financial disaster it's ever seen.
In what world is that a stronger foundation?
Reportedly, he stated...
"The foundation of Ohio is stronger now than when I took office."Really, Governor?
Well here are some other numbers that have changed from when you first took office.
There are 337,371 fewer people with jobs.
There are 267,300 more unemployed Ohioans.
The workforce has shrunk by over 70,000 people.
The unemployment rate has increased by 83%.
Oh, and you left Ohio with the biggest financial disaster it's ever seen.
In what world is that a stronger foundation?
Teacher's Pet
Teachers don't always listen to what their union tells them.
And despite the cuts coming to education that must be done thanks to the Strickland Budget Deficit, there is one very easy way for Republican John Kasich to get on their good side.
From the Dayton Daily News:
In that small sampling of Independent voters, calamity days would be mentioned before anything about budgets or funding.
Teachers know their budgets will be cut. They know teachers will lose their jobs. That wouldn't have changed no matter who was governor.
And now they know that Kasich recognized something that had become a challenge in their profession...and he fixed it. That doesn't go unnoticed or unrewarded.
Kasich, like Chris Christie, likes to say he's a friend to teachers, but in opposition to their unions. This is a clear sign that his relationship with teachers will be improving.
And despite the cuts coming to education that must be done thanks to the Strickland Budget Deficit, there is one very easy way for Republican John Kasich to get on their good side.
From the Dayton Daily News:
Kasich told the Dayton Daily News he’ll move to switch back to five calamity days, commonly called “snow days,” after he takes office in January. “We live in a climate where we have bad weather,” said Kasich, acknowledging that his ear got bent by his daughter, Reese, and Elin Hansen, the 10-year-old daughter of his chief of staff, Beth Hansen.One of the questions I would always ask of a trio of teacher friends of mine when I'd see them over the holidays, "what are you looking for from your next Governor?"
In that small sampling of Independent voters, calamity days would be mentioned before anything about budgets or funding.
Teachers know their budgets will be cut. They know teachers will lose their jobs. That wouldn't have changed no matter who was governor.
And now they know that Kasich recognized something that had become a challenge in their profession...and he fixed it. That doesn't go unnoticed or unrewarded.
Kasich, like Chris Christie, likes to say he's a friend to teachers, but in opposition to their unions. This is a clear sign that his relationship with teachers will be improving.
LOLOLOLOLOL....[breathe...breathe]...LOLOLOLOLOL!!!
From Politico...
The caption? "From left: Ted Strickland, Jennifer Granholm and Tom Perriello could be joining the White House."
The President isn't this stupid, is he?
Oh wait...
The caption? "From left: Ted Strickland, Jennifer Granholm and Tom Perriello could be joining the White House."
The President isn't this stupid, is he?
Oh wait...
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
So Goes Ohio...
Disclaimer: Yes, 2012 is still a long ways away. Undoubtedly, things will change and events will occur that will swing poll numbers back and forth. That said, this PPP poll provides an interesting glimpse at where things stand today. Let's take a look...
========
If there is one lesson out of the new Ohio PPP poll, it's this...
If you want to beat Obama in 2012, you probably don't want to vote for Romney, Huckabee, Palin, or Gingrich in the primary.
An Overview
Obama is still very unpopular in Ohio.
His overall approval is underwater at 42-49 and even worse among Independents at 40-54. Among his own Democratic base he's just at 71% approval.
By comparison, right before this past election, the last PPP poll showed Ted Strickland was at 41-50 approval overall with and 75% among Democrats. The difference? While Obama is -14 among Independents, Strickland was -28.
In other words, their overall approval numbers are awfully similar overall, but Obama is doing worse among Democrats and better among Independents. Obviously, considering where Strickland ended up, that's still very bad news for Obama.
Among the four Republicans polled by PPP, their unfavorable numbers among GOPers came in at 23% for Gingrich, 19% for Huckabee, 21% for Palin, and 22% for Romney. By comparison, right before the 11/2 election and despite all the attacks, Kasich's unfavorable number among GOPers came in at just 11%.
Why is that significant? Because the only person with higher name ID among the 2012 field chosen by PPP was Palin...by 1%.
In other words, without the 2012 campaign even beginning, the big names are already far too unpopular among the base.
And it's seen in the matchups.
Obama beats Gingrich 47-41. Obama beats Huckabee 45-44. Obama beats Palin 49-42. Obama beats Romney 44-42.
Not good.
What It Means
Folks, this is just a little over a month after a gigantic GOP tidal wave swept over Ohio and the nation.
And we have all four "leading contenders" getting beat.
Why? Because they are unpopular.
Make no mistake, Obama is very vulnerable in Ohio. In fact, he's just as vulnerable as Strickland was and is facing an even more discouraged Democratic base. And as we all saw in this past election - a discouraged base damages turnout.
But our leading candidates are already at a severe disadvantage. They're already known and people don't like what they see. When impressions are already negatively entrenched, it's hard to change them - especially in the face of someone who will be as well funded as the President.
So what does that mean?
Republicans need someone else.
Mitch Daniels? Haley Barbour? John Thune? Tim Pawlenty? Mike Pence?
Who knows? But someone else has to step up and forge their identity by utilizing a record of accomplishment and leadership to show they are the superior candidate.
Ultimately, 2012 will be similar to what we saw in Ohio in 2010 - a referendum election. We're in a very good position if Obama's numbers stay anywhere close to where they are now, but only if our nominee is someone who isn't already tarnished.
We all know the phrase, "so goes Ohio, so goes the nation". And it's no less true today as it has been for decades.
Want to win? Support someone other than the big four.
========
If there is one lesson out of the new Ohio PPP poll, it's this...
If you want to beat Obama in 2012, you probably don't want to vote for Romney, Huckabee, Palin, or Gingrich in the primary.
An Overview
Obama is still very unpopular in Ohio.
His overall approval is underwater at 42-49 and even worse among Independents at 40-54. Among his own Democratic base he's just at 71% approval.
By comparison, right before this past election, the last PPP poll showed Ted Strickland was at 41-50 approval overall with and 75% among Democrats. The difference? While Obama is -14 among Independents, Strickland was -28.
In other words, their overall approval numbers are awfully similar overall, but Obama is doing worse among Democrats and better among Independents. Obviously, considering where Strickland ended up, that's still very bad news for Obama.
Among the four Republicans polled by PPP, their unfavorable numbers among GOPers came in at 23% for Gingrich, 19% for Huckabee, 21% for Palin, and 22% for Romney. By comparison, right before the 11/2 election and despite all the attacks, Kasich's unfavorable number among GOPers came in at just 11%.
Why is that significant? Because the only person with higher name ID among the 2012 field chosen by PPP was Palin...by 1%.
In other words, without the 2012 campaign even beginning, the big names are already far too unpopular among the base.
And it's seen in the matchups.
Obama beats Gingrich 47-41. Obama beats Huckabee 45-44. Obama beats Palin 49-42. Obama beats Romney 44-42.
Not good.
What It Means
Folks, this is just a little over a month after a gigantic GOP tidal wave swept over Ohio and the nation.
And we have all four "leading contenders" getting beat.
Why? Because they are unpopular.
Make no mistake, Obama is very vulnerable in Ohio. In fact, he's just as vulnerable as Strickland was and is facing an even more discouraged Democratic base. And as we all saw in this past election - a discouraged base damages turnout.
But our leading candidates are already at a severe disadvantage. They're already known and people don't like what they see. When impressions are already negatively entrenched, it's hard to change them - especially in the face of someone who will be as well funded as the President.
So what does that mean?
Republicans need someone else.
Mitch Daniels? Haley Barbour? John Thune? Tim Pawlenty? Mike Pence?
Who knows? But someone else has to step up and forge their identity by utilizing a record of accomplishment and leadership to show they are the superior candidate.
Ultimately, 2012 will be similar to what we saw in Ohio in 2010 - a referendum election. We're in a very good position if Obama's numbers stay anywhere close to where they are now, but only if our nominee is someone who isn't already tarnished.
We all know the phrase, "so goes Ohio, so goes the nation". And it's no less true today as it has been for decades.
Want to win? Support someone other than the big four.
Make no mistake.
The extension of the Bush tax cuts is not a tax cut in itself, and yesterday Rep. Paul Ryan articulated that point perfectly.
Many are pushing the meme that extending the tax rates will be some type of stimulus that will jumpstart the economy.
Listen to Paul Ryan. We're just fighting over whether there should be a tax hike or not.
WALLACE: Well, I don’t understand. Why — I mean, I understand that stimulus has become a politically loaded word, but why isn’t it a stimulus? Tax cuts are a stimulus. You guys think that they’re the best kind of stimulus.Nailed it.
RYAN: Look, only in Washington is not raising taxes considered a tax cut. Nobody’s getting a tax cut here. We’re not cutting taxes. We’re preventing tax increases from occurring.
If we were actually cutting tax rates, then we might have a stimulus. We’re not actually cutting tax rates here. We’re simply preventing them from being increased. That is why we do not see this as particularly stimulative. It just prevents bad policies going forward.
Many are pushing the meme that extending the tax rates will be some type of stimulus that will jumpstart the economy.
Listen to Paul Ryan. We're just fighting over whether there should be a tax hike or not.
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