Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Is Strickland closing the gap on Independents?

I've had a few regulars e-mail me to ask about how Kasich is doing among Independents. Apparently the most recent Ohio Poll brought about some confusion.

The Ohio Poll released this past weekend had Strickland leading Kasich among Independents 44-43.

If you decide that the Ohio Poll is the only poll worth paying any attention to, you have your answer.

But, if you, like nationally regarded poll analysts, believe you have to take all legitimate polls into consideration, the answer gets quite a bit fuzzier.

First off, let's start with the Ohio Poll.

As we said, this weekend showed Strickland up 44-43 on Kasich among Independents. But, what if you take into consideration the last Ohio Poll taken back in May? Back then Strickland was also up among Independents - but the margin was 44-30. In other words, just by taking the Ohio Poll into consideration, Strickland has stayed completely static among Independents since May while Kasich has improved by 13 points.

Now, what about the slew of polls taken between September 13-20?

Here is how the crosstabs read among Independents:
Survey USA: Kasich 51, Strickland 33
Quinnipiac: Kasich 55, Strickland 32
CNN/Time: Kasich 54, Strickland 38
Rasmussen: Kasich 54, Strickland 33
Fox News: Independent subgroup N/A
Ohio Poll: Strickland 44, Kasich 43

As the Sesame Street gang used to say, one of these is not like the other.
Now both sides can argue in circles about which poll is valid and which isn't. That's why picking which ones you like and don't like doesn't really get you anywhere.

But one thing is clear - you'd be hard pressed to find any serious analyst that would say the clear similarities among the first four polls can or should be dismissed.

Even if you wanted to say the Ohio Poll was the only poll worth paying attention to, you would still have to submit that Strickland hasn't improved even one percentage point among Independents while Kasich has improved 13 points.

No matter how you cut it, Strickland isn't closing the gap on Independents.


  1. Fox has the race at 2 points. For whatever reason, Kasich can't close the deal.

  2. Except you ignored the trendlines in Rasmussen. A month ago, Rasmussen said Kasich had a 2:1 advantage with Independents; two weeks, ago it was down to just a twenty-one point lead. That means it's been shrinking.

    So, yes, Kasich has been losing his edge with Independents. The trend lines show it.

    I was right; you were dead wrong.

  3. Rasmussen Independent Numbers:

    9/13: 54-33 Kasich
    9/1: 62-23 Kasich
    8/18: 60-30 Kasich
    8/5: 51-32 Kasich
    7/29: 56-29 Kasich
    7/5: 45-28 Kasich
    6/7: 53-27 Kasich
    5/7: 45-41 Kasich

    First off, if you want to say a 21 point lead = something for Strickland to brag about, fine. But if Kasich gets 21% of the Independent vote on 11.2 it will be a landslide, and you know that.

    But as far as "tightening" goes, the latest numbers are fairly consistent with what we see going back to early June.

    Also, Rasmussen seems wildly erratic with Independent votes.

  4. And yet, if you look at the recent indy trends, it shows it narrowing. You claimed that any way you sliced it, the gap hasn't been closing. Yet, the last THREE Rasmussen polls showed just that.

    In other words, you lied... again. But don't worry, it's all about the aggregate because that 17-point Quinny poll was so spot on.

  5. So I prove you wrong on Rasmussen and you go back to what I disproved in the original post. Weird.

    By the way, new Rasmussen poll coming out shows approval of Governor among Indies sits at 26/74.

    Was 34/61 two weeks ago.


  6. What's the head to head? Must not be very good, since you refuse to talk about the one number that matters.

    Sticking your head in the sand and saying "Na na na na na!" Isn't proof. And that's all you did in this post.

    Three polls today all show the race is already a dead heat. That aggregate lead you loved so much? Yeah, it closed by half in a day.

    And when I wrote two weeks ago that Rasmussen showed Kasich's lead was evaporating, you INSISTED I was wrong.

    You were dead wrong; I was dead right.

    You're running out of excuses as to why Kasich's losing grip on the race.

    It's all tied up. I hear the RGA is thinking that the situation is getting so out of hand that they're going to focus on protecting their seats in Texas and Florida by pouring money out of Ohio into them, now.

    So much for thinking that Kasich won the debates. The post-debate polls would seem to suggest you're wrong on that, too.


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