Friday, April 9, 2010

Things happen fast in politics. But not that fast.

Two recent polls should send shivers down the spine of Democrats.

First, a Fox News poll taken April 6-7 of 900 registered(not likely, but registered) voters showed even lower approval numbers and even weaker confidence in President Obama.

Overall, the President is going deep. Deep underwater, that is.

At 43%, Obama's approval is at its worst yet. Even among Democrats, the President is setting records with a full 15% disapproving of him. At this time last year, that number was 4%. With Independents, Obama's approval sits at another all-time low, 38%.

His issue numbers are far worse.

On Afghanistan, The economy, Iran, Job creation, Health care, and Federal deficit, Obama's disapproval numbers among Democrats are all in the 20s to low 30s.

All polls point to the economy, and the issues around the economy, being the primary issue this election season. Health care comes in a distant second.

Well, the all-important Independents are pretty unhappy with the President in all of those categories.

Only 40% of Indies approve of the President on The economy. 30% approve on Job creation. 26%(!) approve on the Federal deficit. And 38% approve on Health care.

It doesn't take a genius to recognize these are dangerously low numbers. And when the country's swing voters don't have confidence in the President, his Party most certainly suffers in the midterms.

And that leads to the second poll that should lead to some major concern among Democrats.

Voter enthusiasm.

The importance of voter enthusiasm cannot be overstated. You can have whatever lead you want in the polls as you approach election day, but those leads mean nothing if your supporters don't vote.

And that's where Republicans have an immensely wide advantage.

As you can see, in the week prior to the big health care vote that Democrats so desperately believed would draw them even with Republicans in enthusiasm, the GOP held a 15-point advantage, 39-24, in enthusiasm.

Two weeks after that vote, that margin has done the opposite of what Democrats hoped with the margin increasing to 19-points, 54-35. Sure, the health care vote gave the Dems a slight bump, but it lit a much larger fire under the rumps of Republicans. And that's something those very same Democrats did not count upon.

Now it would be a pipe dream to believe the enthusiasm gap will stay that wide into election day, but it does highlight the severe challenge facing Democrats. And everytime lefties claim the GOP tide has flatlined, it only surges once again.

Eventually, things will likely even out, but it will take significant efforts, not to mention resources, to make that happen for Democrats.

But does their clear disappointment in the President preclude that from happening? And what can the President do to turn public opinion around?

Maybe that gap won't shrink that much after all.

No comments:

Post a Comment

No profanity, keep it clean.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.