As we've gone over again and again, elections that include incumbents pushing for re-election are largely a referendum on that incumbent.
If things are going well, great for the incumbent. If not, not so great for the incumbent.
And voters don't care about excuses.
That's why poll questions asking about mood of the voter and perception of the job being done by the incumbent are particularly important this far out from election day.
Gallup recently released one particular number that has to scare the livin' bejeezus out of the Party in power.
Fully 1/5 of the nation believes it's likely they won't have a job within a year - the highest number ever recorded.
This is the kind of number that very clearly highlights the lack of confidence the electorate has in the economy.
Be scared, Democrats.