Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The latest on NJ & VA, or as we like to call them, Obama's first report card...

In Virginia, Barack Obama has announced that he will once again come to Virginia, further laying claim to the race as a presidential referendum. Alas, with poll after poll showing McDonnell with a commanding lead, it will take quite the October surprise to turn this to Deeds' favor.

As we know by now, Virginia has been trending blue since '01, but its history requires it to be considered a purple state.

Clearly with this history, a win by more than 5 for McDonnell should be taken as a crushing blow to Obama.

In New Jersey things are much more interesting. We all know how blue a state New Jersey has been.

After seeing that history, anyone want to tell me that any Democrat shouldn't absolutely own this race?

And yet, Christie is still tied with an incumbent Democrat Governor that has utterly failed his state, leaving it with a high tax burden and extraordinary unemployment rates.

(Sound familiar, Ohio?)

Election prognosticator-extraordinaire Stu Rothenberg recently provided this analysis of the current state of the race.
Christie has started to criticize Daggett’s tax plan, and he is almost certain to argue in the coming weeks that since the Independent candidate can’t win, a vote for Daggett is, in fact, a vote for four more years of Corzine. Whether Christie is successful with that message will determine who wins, Corzine or Christie.

Daggett is the single best thing to happen to Corzine politically. In a two-man contest against Christie, the governor would have little chance to win. But a three-way race presents a very different dynamic.

If Daggett’s number on the ballot test slides to the low double digits (10 percent to 12 percent) or below, Corzine almost certainly will lose. On the other hand, if Daggett gets at least 17 percent, the governor should win. If Daggett’s showing falls into the 13 percent to 16 percent range, either major-party candidate could emerge victorious.
The hope is Daggett's followers will fade as they realize their candidate doesn't stand a chance. In addition, we hope Democrats aren't enthused enough to come vote for their candidate.

Either way, the closeness of this race should already communicate a giant exclamation to Democrats nationwide. If New Jersey is this close, you all better watch your backs.

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