Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Roll Call: Stivers, Chabot to gain from coattails

Roll Call is out today with an intriguing article highlighting how Ohio GOP standard bearers John Kasich and Rob Portman will assist in close congressional races in 2012.

Public polling shows Portman trailing both of his potential Democratic opponents, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, although more than a quarter of voters are undecided in the recent Quinnipiac University survey. But the same September poll also showed Portman receiving favorable marks from 51 percent of survey respondents in southwest Ohio, where Chabot and Schmidt are running to win back and keep their House seats, respectively.

The same Quinnipiac poll of 1,074 Ohio voters also showed Gov, Ted Strickland (D) ahead of Kasich, 46 percent to 36 percent, but the Republican was in a statistical tie with the governor in his central Ohio geographic base.

While the last Quinnipiac poll wasn't nearly as favorable to Portman and Kasich as the more recent Rasmussen poll, it was the only one broken down geographically. And utilizing the geographic crosstab, as Roll Call does, clearly highlights the benefits gained by Republican congressional candidates.

However, an aspect of the article did give me chuckle:

Gabby Adler, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, defended Democrats’ chances in the Buckeye State. Democrats also pointed out that Obama is still relatively popular in parts of the state, and Democrats have a voter registration advantage in Kilroy’s district.

“Democrats are energized and ready to mount a strong and well-organized effort to turn out and persuade House voters in 2010,” Adler said.

Oh Gabby, Gabby, Gabby.

First off, Obama isn't on the ballot in 2010. Second, Democrats who registered for the 2008 election won't turnout in the same numbers. To think otherwise is simply laughable.

And Democrats are energized?


In the same Quinnipiac poll, 48% of Democrats said they aren't satisfied with the way things are going in Ohio.


So to think those same Democrats will be "energized" to come out and support the Governor running for re-election and the Lt. Governor running for Senate is downright ludicrous.

But hey, you're only doing your job.

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