Tuesday, August 10, 2010


Reuters-Ipsos just put out a new poll showing John Kasich up 48-39 on Ted Strickland.

And the good news doesn't end there.

Rob Portman has also staked out a 43-36 lead on Lee Fisher.

The rest of the poll confirms a lot of what we already knew.

Jobs and the economy are far and away the most important issue in the campaign with 79% citing it as the biggest problem. Second was weak government and corrupt politicians.

Both aren't exactly good news for Ted and Lee.

Are Ohioans optimistic that Ted and Lee's administration are turning around Ohio? With nearly 2/3 saying the state is headed down the wrong track, that's a big, fat no.

Joe Hallett and the Ohio Democratic Party like to think Democrats are enthusiastic. Well, as I just mentioned yesterday, that just isn't happening. The Reuters poll confirmed my theory with 75% of Republicans saying they are certain to vote versus just 52% of Democrats.

If there is any good news at all for Ted, it's that 93% of Ohioans believe bankers and wall street are the biggest culprits for the economic downturn.

But after millions and millions of dollars spent on advertising, Strickland press conferences, and organized political events designed to highlight Kasich's attachment to Wall Street, that tactic hasn't done much good, has it? In fact, if these numbers are accurate, things have actually gotten worse since the tactic was fully implemented.

Hmm...it's almost as if someone predicted things would get worse for Ted after Kasich "twisted the knife" on Lehman.

With the incumbent Democrat pulling in just 39% of the vote, it's time for Ted Strickland and his team to get very, very, very worried. Remember, traditionally it's bad news when an incumbent isn't hitting 50%. Ted's at 39%.

As for Lee, for someone who has been around as long as him to get just 36% of the vote is simply astounding. And unfortunately for him, he doesn't have any money to really move those numbers.

Do these numbers mean we should rest on our laurels? Not by a long shot. There are still 84 days until election day. Anything can happen. Additionally, this is just one poll. If we see the same trend over the next few weeks, we'll have further confirmation on the state of the race.

But as Larry David says, this is pretty good.


  1. Waiting for Modern Esquire's convoluted explanation of how Strickland trailing Kasich by 9 is just where the Dems want to be!

  2. And how this poll is biased...

    and Kasich is evil....

    and Strickland saved a baby and a puppy from certain death...


  3. wow this is a record for ole' Esquire

  4. No doubt a conspiracy between wall street, lehman bros, Kasich, rasmussen, ORP an Reuters.

  5. Yes, Keeling this proves everything you said it was true... except you have to ignore the multiple Quinnipiac polls, the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, the recent Rasmussen poll, and the recent PPP polling, first. All of which shows the race either virtually tied or Strickland slightly ahead.

    Yep, once you ignore ALL OTHER POLLING in the race, then you're correct.

    What was that about the aggregate of data again? Look up the term "outlier" sometime.

  6. :sigh:

    As stated in the post, "Additionally, this is just one poll. If we see the same trend over the next few weeks, we'll have further confirmation on the state of the race."

  7. Well, you sure seem to be doing a heck of an endzone dance despite that rather large qualifier.

    By definition, an outlier is not confirmation of something. Quite the opposite. Do your fingers get stained by all the cherrypicking you do in Virginia?

  8. Do your ears hurt from pressing your hands against them and yelling LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA!!!!???

  9. Keeling- I've been listening because I can. I'm HERE! You're in VA getting your information from solely the ORP and the Kasich campaign.

    Republicans are concerned about the poor communication strategy the Kasich campaign is running compared to the Strickland campaign which has been running circles around it.

    The hope the Tea Party movement would boost Kasich? Gone. Not only is the "movement" a fraction of its former self they are turned off by Kasich's anti-gun votes and NAFTA.

    You want to accuse me of cupping my ears after you wrote this tripe over one poll that is refuted by ALL OTHER POLLING. Fine, be an idiot.

    But you know that I'm right that there is growing concern about the Kasich's campaign inability to articulate an effective message because Kasich has offered no plan.


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