Boccieri may be toast.

A new contributor to 3BP gives his reasons as to why Rep. John Boccieri has a lot to fear in November. Take it away, Bytor:

I used to live in Ohio's 16th Congressional District until a couple years ago, so I've been keeping a pretty close eye on this race. The seat is currently held by Democrat John Boccieri, who rode the Obama wave of HopeyChange into a seat which had been held by the GOP since 1951.

How red is this district? Well, with a Cook PVI of +4, there are certainly redder ones, even in Ohio. However, Republican Ralph Regula served 18 consecutive terms. He routinely won reelection with 2-1 margins or greater. Even in 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, when they lost the House, he still beat his Democratic opponent by 17 points. His retirement was the perfect opportunity for the Democrats to claim the seat during the 2008 election.

Enter former state Senator John Boccieri. As a freshman Congressman, Boccieri quickly became a rubber stamp for the Obama/Pelosi agenda. He voted for the failed, pork-laden "Stimulus" bill and he voted for the Cap and Trade bill. Then, he apparently got a pass from Pelosi, and was allowed to vote against the the first iteration of the House Obamacare bill. Having already cast unpopular votes in a red district, he must have been feeling the heat and Nancy let him vote no to attempt to save his hide for November 2010.

Ah, but then things changed for John. The election of Senator Scott Brown meant that the House would have to pass the Senate Obamacare bill, as is. Nancy lost votes due to the bill's increased toxicity and lack of a public option. She withdrew her "get of jail free" card, and John was forced to change his vote to "Yes."

This was probably the nail in John Boccieri's coffin. His opponent, Wadsworth businessman Jim Renacci, has been drawing constant attention to Boccieri's voting record, and many have called this race a "tossup". I've been convinced since his cap and trade vote that this was no close race, and that Boccieri would lose soundly.

And now there is proof. An August 23rd AAF poll shows Renacci leading Boccieri 49-35. That's no tossup, folks.

Not. Even. Close.

On top of that, Boccieri's flip-flop on Obamacare is his "greatest tested weakness." That won't help as the heat on his vote is turned up.

Americans are rejecting the Obama/Pelosi extreme agenda. And they're really rejecting it in red midwestern districts like Ohio's 16th. I think it's pretty safe to say that John Boccieri is now Ohio's most endangered Democrat.