In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District today, 07/20/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.SurveyUSA is a very well respected polling firm and well known for their accuracy.
Perriello, who defeated 6-term Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008, today trails among most demographic groups.
The composition of likely voters for this survey is 42% Republican, 27% Democratic. This composition reflects an energized Republican base and an enthusiasm gap for Democrats, evident in SurveyUSA polling from around the country. If the electorate is more Democratic than shown in SurveyUSA’s model here, the Republican still wins, though his margin of victory is less. For example, if hypothetically there were an even number of Democrats and Republicans in the likely voter model, Republican challenger Hurt wins today by 11 points, not 23.
I particularly appreciate not only how they take voter enthusiasm into consideration, unlike many polling firms, but also provide the results if a more Democratic model is used.
But more to the point, this 23-point turnaround against a Democratic incumbent has to scare the living heck out of every Democratic incumbent out there.
As Jim Geraghty states:
If swing districts that were 50-50 in 2008 now have Republicans winning by 11, it’s going to be a phenomenal year for the GOP. If it really is a 23-percentage-point margin, we may run out of adjectives for what November has in store for us.All Tom Perriello did was vote with Nancy Pelosi. That's it. And he's getting demolished.