Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Even NPR knows Democrats are about to get smoked.

Republicans need 40 seats to takeover control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

And according to the latest bipartisan poll from NPR, 60 of the 70 most competitive races are in Democratic districts.

Unfortunately for Democrats, that's not the bad news out of this poll.

The generic poll of the districts is different from the Gallup and Rasmussen polls in two ways; 1) they sampled only competitive districts, so the results are more reflective of the situation; and 2) they broke it down by Party so we can see where both sides stand.

The results?

In the competitive Democratic districts, Republicans are winning 47-42. In the competitive GOP districts Republicans are up a very comfortable 53-37.

Plainly stated, Republicans are favored to win most Dem seats and absolutely level any Democratic challengers. We're looking at you, Paula Brooks.

The news gets even worse for Democrats.

Bolger says the NPR poll has more evidence of a trend that's been apparent all year: Republican-leaning voters are energized, while the intensity seems to have leached out of the Democratic ranks.

"When you look at the generic ballot for Congress in the Democrat-held seats, the Republican is up by 5 [points]. But among those who rate their interest as 8 to 10, you know, the high-interest voters, the Republican leads in those Democratic seats 53 to 39.

"And what that means is that is in a close election, the Republican enthusiasm will put Republicans over the top, just like in '06 and '08, the Democratic enthusiasm put the Democrats over the top."

The importance of this poll cannot be understated.

Democrats need a massive gamechanger if they want to hold the majority in the fall.


  1. The NPR polls that these districts are performing exactly at their partisan preference index would indicate.

    Most of the districts are districts where the GOP enjoys a +5 partisan advantage, and these polls show... +5 partisan advantage.

    Yeah, we don't have the wind at our back and we're in a lot of districts we ordinarily wouldn't carry, so of course, we're bound to lose several seats...

    But smoked? That's not exactly what this NPR poll shows.

  2. Stan Greenberg, Democratic Pollster:

    "In a year where voters want change and in which Democrats are seen to be in power, this is a tough poll — about as tough as you get," Greenberg said.

  3. Modern Esquire:

    Do you get paid to go around to other websites and pick fights over how awesome Ted Strickland is, or what?

    Having and debating ideas is one thing. Going around to websites and picking fights over how awesome Ted Strickland is, is another.

    Unless, of course, you get paid. If you don't, it's just kind of bizarre.


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