Wednesday, June 30, 2010

So, where does the Ohio Governor's race stand?

Over the past two months, Ted Strickland and other Dem surrogates have dominated the airwaves with attack ads, spending upwards of $3 million to the RGA's almost $1 million in a massive effort to increase Kasich's negatives and secure their base.

Meanwhile, Kasich and his surrogates have yet to spend a cent on increasing the GOP candidate's name ID or introducing his story to the voters.

In other words, in a purple state like Ohio there is every reason in the world to believe that Strickland has pulled away.

But he isn't. In fact, an aggregation of all polls shows that Kasich has an ever so slight lead. [DJ note: Due to the recent news that Daily Kos is suing Research 2000 for fraud and faulty polling, their poll of the race was removed from the below aggregation.]


Knowing this, do you think Ted and his surrogates would trade spending that $3 million in October rather than in May and June? You're damned right they would.

But the most important question being asked of the voters right now is not which candidate they support, it's this: "do you approve or disapprove of the job Ted Strickland is doing as Governor?" Why is it so important? Because of what virtually any serious political scientist will tell you - elections that include an incumbent are first and foremost a referendum on that incumbent.


43% aggregate approval? 48% aggregate disapproval?!

Ted Strickland is deep, deep underwater. And trending deeper.

This is a referendum election. With numbers like these, Ted is going to lose that referendum.

Can anything bring it back? Sure.
  • An unprecedented and rapid improvement in the unemployment rate.
  • An amiable solution to the $8 billion deficit.
  • A realistic education plan.
Does anyone think any of those will happen? No.

Ted is doomed.

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