Friday, June 11, 2010

The Scariest Trend Line for Barack Obama

I've been saying the best way to read polls is to look at an amalgamation of their results.

Well, when you take a look at the President's job approval among Independents, it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the President.

Without question, and despite his absence on the ballot, President Obama's job approval will have a dramatic effect on the elections in November of this year.

Last month Gallup documented the phenomena:
First-term presidents who had sub-50% approval ratings at the midterms -- including Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton -- saw their parties suffer large congressional seat losses. In contrast, a recovery in Obama's approval rating -- particularly to above 60% -- could limit Democratic losses.
Well, I think after looking at the above graphic that that among the most important voting bloc, Obama is suffering.

And what can turn around between now and November?

No one expects the jobs crisis to go away.
No one expects opinions on Obamacare to flip.
No one expects the oil spill in the Gulf to be cleaned up.

In other words, Democrats need a miracle.

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