Wednesday, September 29, 2010

About that Rasmussen poll...

A new one released this morning shows John Kasich up 8, 50-42.

The crazy part? The party ID breakdown.

The sample included 41% Dems, 30% GOP, and 29% Independent.

Does anyone in Ohio really think the Democrats will have anywhere near that large an advantage on November 2nd? For comparison, the one seemingly legit exit poll in 2008, the CNN Exit Poll, had Ohio's breakdown sitting at 39% Dem, 31% GOP, and 30% Independent. I don't know about you, but with our massive enthusiasm advantage I don't see those numbers being anywhere close to the same this time around.

But I digress. Let's look at the poll.

The one outlier in this poll from the others released yesterday is the level of support for John Kasich. Per Rasmussen, Kasich has the base far more in his camp than the other polls. We'll see if any subsequent polls can confirm what we see here from Rasmussen.

But Rasmussen is yet another poll that shows the low level of support for Ted Strickland. Continuing the trend we've been seeing all year, he's still in the low 40s. I know I sound like a broken record on this, but that is very bad news for Strickland's team. This late in the game, you can't be performing that far below 50% as an incumbent - especially in a wave election like this one.

One other interesting result from the poll revolved around the Tea Party. While the Republicans and Democrats were expectedly split, by a margin of 59-16 Independents said the Tea Party movement was good for the country. And that's despite only 18% of Independents considering themselves members of the movement.

So much for being a fringe group that deserves being attacked by the Governor and Chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, eh?


  1. hey Modern Esquire:
    When you make it over here to troll this post could you please tell us by how many percentage points Teddy Strickland is gonna win on 11/2/2010??? Really wanna know........

  2. I'm glad you're excited that Strickand's going to win, too. ;)

    It's going to be close. I don't know if I'm ready to commit to a number this far out.

    But it's amusing to watch Keeling continue to spin how everything is just fine, just fine.

  3. Modern, DJT isn't spinning. This stuff is politics 101. Ted is still in deep trouble.

    From RCP:

    Third, and most importantly, the numbers you need to pay the most attention to here are Strickland's. Incumbents under 50 percent at this point in the game usually do not win; incumbents under 45 percent almost never win.

  4. Jon the party breakdown sounds about right. What you have to remember is that the Tea Party is pulling people away from the R's faster than unenthusiastic Dems are going Meh on their party.

    I'm a newly minted I when two years ago I was an R. Theres lots of us out there, and while we'll still vote for the R, we will register our disgust for the ORPINO. and going I is one easy way to do it.

  5. Dave,

    A fair point about some Rs going to I. But that doesn't explain the partisan breakdown that shows FEWER Is than in 2008.

    If anything, Dems should be down and both R and I should be up, based on the political environment.

  6. Bytor-

    You're citing a column from a writer of Human Events. That's like me citing a DailyKos diary to you.

    Seriously, Keeling is spinning. After all, he was the one who mocked me weeks ago when I said that Rasmussen showed that the race was quickly tightening saying that the aggregate showed the opposite was true.

    Now, he admits I was right.

  7. If there is a likely voter screen, that would kill a lot of your I's that just don't pay attention to politics. This is a midterm election and turnout will go from ~65 to ~50 if we're lucky.

    A good comparison would be how many I's in 2006?


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