Thursday, September 16, 2010

The Buttwhoopin' Cometh...

This morning Ohio Republicans were greeted with the soothing words of Quinnipiac.

John Kasich was up 17 points on Ted Strickland.

The difference between this Quinnipiac poll and the last one taken in early summer? They polled likely voters, not just registered voters.

Well that and John Kasich is absolutely destroying Ted Strickland.

The most interesting number to me?

88% of Kasich voters are sure of their vote. With 47 days to go, that's astounding to me. That means any efforts Strickland may make to tear away those voters becomes that much more difficult.

But ultimately, it's not rational to simply look at one poll and say "that's where this race stands". No poll is perfect, and as we've been saying, you have to look at them all to truly gauge where the race stands.

Fortunately, does that for us.

Right now we're at a 10.3% margin.

I'll take it.

Unfortunately, that lead also means we lose my 2nd favorite pollster...the guys at Dem polling firm Public Policy Polling:

It's really gotten that bad, guys? Wow.

Two things to remember. One, right now Strickland is in the basement. The numbers don't get much worse than this for Democrats in Ohio unless you've got a scandal you're currently caught up in. That means he's got nowhere to go but up.

And second, Ohio conservatives can't stop fighting. A win is a win, but absolutely destroying Strickland can send shockwaves throughout Ohio. Not only would it mean our guy in the Governor's seat, but it would cause a ripple effect throughout the state. A blowout would bring long coattails with it, and that means an increased likelihood of a statewide sweep, a takeover of the Ohio House, and maybe even bad news for the likes of Charlie Wilson, Betty Sutton, Marcy Kaptur, and Zack Space.

The message? Don't let up. Keep pounding away.

And finally, I hate to leave the Democrats that read this blog all sad and teary eyed, so here's a video of a chimp on a segway. Enjoy.


  1. We both know that Kasich's internally polling doesn't back up Quinny. Or is it just me?

  2. Yeah, he's right! No way is Kasich up 17 points. In fact, all these pollsters are wrong. I asked around my law firm, and Ted Strickland is beating John Kasich 100-0. I predict a 20 point win for Strickland.

  3. The Quin poll is good news but no time to stop fighting to be sure.
    Just saw the new Strickland ads and they are pretty good. He's going positive.
    There's still a fair amount of time left so the work must continue.

  4. Still waiting, Keeling. You gonna deny that Kasich's internals don't show the results you're touting here with Quinny?

  5. I honestly have no idea what the internals show, but the aggregate now has it at 10.3%.

    That's where I believe the race stands.

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  7. That funny Modern guy:

    "No way Strickland's losing by 17, it's more like 10."

    OK. I'll take it. Loser.

  8. You're lying, Keeling. We all know you're tied to the hip to the campaign. You know this isn't a double-digit race, and that even Kasich's polls don't show it like that. Just admit it.

  9. Hey Modern, I will donate $1,000.00 dollars to Stricklands campaign if you can show me his plan to deal with the looming $8,000,000,000 (what a crap load of zeros) budget hole.

    I realize it borders on ridiculous for me to expect the sitting Governor to have a plan in place, but humor me and get some cash to your buddy's campaign.

  10. Holy crap, Modern is pathetic when he gets desperate.

    "We're not down 17! All the other polls say 10 or 12!"


  11. Chimpanzee riding on a segway!


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