Friday, September 10, 2010

Recession Recovery. What's normal?

Not this, that's for sure.
Look at Chart 2, what is normal, 33 months after the recession begins, is that all the stimulus and lags have worked their way through the system and generated new peaks in all the economic data. On average, employment is up 5.5%, GDP is up 12%, housing starts are up 27% and retail sales are up 25%. This time around, and in the face of pronounced policy stimulus, employment is down 6%, GDP is down over 1%, starts down 47% and retail sales are down 4%.

This is your Summer of Recovery, folks.

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