I'll save you the trouble. The poll is based on a sample size 17% less than the September poll. The sample contained less than 11% of independents, which actually make up the majority of the electorate.
The only way it could possible show the results it does is by predicting more Republicans voting than Democrats AND Independents COMBINED (in a State where there are more independents than registered party voters and Democrats have nearly a 1 million voter registeration advantage over Republicans.)
The sampling in this one is just weird. We've never seen an electorate that this one requires to get its results. And data we have on the early vote suggests we're not likely to see an electorate this poll's likely voter model is predicting.
I'll save you the trouble. The poll is based on a sample size 17% less than the September poll. The sample contained less than 11% of independents, which actually make up the majority of the electorate.
ReplyDeleteThe only way it could possible show the results it does is by predicting more Republicans voting than Democrats AND Independents COMBINED (in a State where there are more independents than registered party voters and Democrats have nearly a 1 million voter registeration advantage over Republicans.)
The sampling in this one is just weird. We've never seen an electorate that this one requires to get its results. And data we have on the early vote suggests we're not likely to see an electorate this poll's likely voter model is predicting.
A rare miss for the Ohio Poll.
A rare event, but I actually agree with ME on this one. The polling parameters don't seem to make any sense.
ReplyDeleteIn the big picture, though, every reputable poll shows Kasich ahead. When a real poll shows Ted ahead by 3-5 points we'll have a story.