Tuesday, October 12, 2010

If Ted is one thing, it's consistent.


As some may know, that's the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything, it's also Ted's level of support in Ohio.

A new poll out this morning from Fox News shows Kasich once again with a five point lead over Strickland - sitting at 47-42. As you can see from the RCP average of polling, that's nothing new.

Remember what Eric Rademacher of the Ohio Poll said way back on September 26th:
...the fact is, for an incumbent governor, it's a little bit late in the year to be under 50 percent support.
Rademacher said that with 37 days left in the race. We're down to just 21 and nothing has changed.

Ok, one thing has changed. Rademacher's poll had Strickland at 45% back then. Now Strickland is consistently at 42%.

Can Ted turn it around? Well, if you look at the favorable numbers that seems more and more difficult.

Kasich's favorable numbers currently sit at 39-30 among the key Independent voters. Compare that +9 to Strickland's absolutely dreadful favorable numbers, 31-55.

That's a 25 point difference in unfavorable numbers among the key swing voters between the two candidates. As long as that gap doesn't massively shrink between now and election day, I don't see how Strickland can find a way to make the massive jump from his current 42% to the 50%+1 overall support needed to claim victory.

The other most interesting numbers apply directly to a certain President's visit on Sunday.

The Fox News poll has President Obama with some of his lowest approval numbers yet - coming in at 33-58 overall. That's a net drop of 8 points from last week's -18. Even worse news for Ted Strickland's hopes to win over swing voters with the President's appearance, Obama's approval among Independents is now at 23-69, or -46 points. Last week the President was at -40.

The always fun but relatively insignificant question was asked, would you vote for a Republican or President Obama in 2012. The generic Republican won 54-36 overall and 62-20 among Independents.

With all that being said, I have one more request of Governor Strickland.

More Obama, please.

1 comment:

  1. Latest Rasmussen and another poll yesterday had Strickland at or above 45%. So did the latest Reuters and Ohio Poll (the Gold Standard in Ohio polling.)

    The only thing consistent is your spinning.

    Two months after saying the DGA was pulling out of Ohio, Ted is campaigning with its Chairman in Ohio today.

    You're the Mark Penn of Ohio politics.


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