Monday, September 6, 2010

Don't get cocky.

For the uninitiated, Nate Silver is a numbers guru and, despite his liberal tendencies, widely seen as the statistical equivalent of Charlie Cook.

Late last week he put together his analyses of the gubernatorial races this year and his model showed some incredibly bad news for Ted Strickland.

Ultimately, based on all the variables incorporated into the model, Silver predicts Kasich winning by 8.4 points. It's important to note, this analysis didn't include the latest Columbus Dispatch poll showing Kasich up 12.

Clearly this is horrible news for Ted Strickland. And it's probably the last thing in the world any Strickland contributor would want to see.

All that said, what can lose this for Kasich is complacency. Our enthusiasm is what's winning this race and we can't back down.

Keep fighting.


  1. No way, dude. Kasich will lose by around 20 points. Modern Esquie told me so.

  2. Remember, The Dispatch poll is the worst poll in the history of polling. In 2006, its final poll was off by 65% above the actual result despite a MOE of +/- 2%. Interestingly, if it stays true to form and things don't change, Kasich will win by 7.8%, very close to the predicted 8.4%. So 54-46 is a reasonable prediction.

  3. Not really, Joe.

    They were bad in 2005 and 2006. But historically, the poll does a fantastic job, particularly on statewide races.

  4. That's was before 2005, it's now a joke...

    on the left:

    on the right:

    and for previously impressed poll watchers ( :

    "MP's instincts failed him with respect to the venerable Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll, which after decades of outperforming conventional telephone surveys turned in one of the more spectacularly inaccurate performances in recent memory. For example, the final Dispatch survey conducted October 24 through November had Issue 2 (vote by mail) running 26 points ahead (59% to 33%). It lost on Tuesday by 28 points (36% to 64%). Similarly, the poll had Issue 3 (limits on campaign contributions) running 36 points ahead (61% to 25%). It lost by an opposite 36 point margin (32% to 68%). These results had MP seriously wondering whether the pollsters or election officials had mistakenly transposed "yes" and "no" in their tables. The discrepancy was nearly as great for Issues 3 and 4 (on congressional redistricting and the role of the secretary of state)."

    The UC Ohio Poll is the gold standard for Ohio.

  5. Joe,

    Not sure if you read my link. It was written after your MP link and analyzes differences between issue and candidate polls from the Dispatch.

    Despite what Kos and Bizzy may say, one poll does not a trend make. What matters is methodology. And they are using one that has worked time and again.

    Ultimately, its results reflect what we're seeing in every other poll, thereby encouraging the likelihood of accuracy.


No profanity, keep it clean.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.